13
th
Annual
DemographiaInternationalDemographia International
Housing Affordability
Survey: 2017
Rating Middle-Income Housing Affordability
Australia Canada China(Hong Kong)Ireland
Japan New Zealand Singapore
UidKidUidSUnited Kingdom United States
With comparisons to External Indexes for
China and Malaysia
Introduction by
Oliver Hartwich
TheNewZealandInitiativeThe New Zealand Initiative
Data for 3rdQuarter 2016
淘宝店铺
“Vivian研报”
首次收集整理
获取最新报告及后续更新服务请在淘宝搜索店铺“Vivian研报”
或直接用手机淘宝扫描下方二维码th
Annual Demographia
International Housing Affordability Survey
INTRODUCTION
Housing Affordability: A Social Imperative
Oliver Hartwich
Executive Director,
The New Zealand Initiative
It is a great honour to provide the foreword to this year’s
Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
. Not just
because I am humbly following in the footsteps of previous
contributors to the series, many of whom I know personally
and admire deeply. But mainly because I have been a fan of
Demographia’s indices since they started in 2005.
I first became involved in housing debates in that year when I
was a researcher at London think tank Policy Exchange. I
remember very well how difficult it was to put a figure to
housing affordability which is also internationally comparable.
Demographia’s ‘median multiple’ approach closed this gap. It firmly established a benchmark for
housing affordability by linking median house prices to median household incomes. It is as
simple as it is ingenious. And it is probably the index I have cited most often in my career.
The ‘median multiple’ is not a perfect measure because it does not account for house sizes or
build quality. But it is the only index that allows a quick comparison of different housing
markets, and it is the best approximation of housing affordability measures we have to date.
So first of all, my congratulations and thanks to Wendell Cox and Hugh Pavletich: You have
done the world a great service with your annual surveys and with your advocacy for housing
affordability.
When John Lennon met Elvis for the first time he said, “Before you there was nothing.” I feel
the same way about your housing affordability index. Thank you.
Demographia’s reports and countless other surveys and studies do not leave the slightest doubt
that unaffordable housing is almost everywhere and every time caused by the same factor:
housing supply restrictions. The more restrictive the market, the more prices will increase over
time.
To any undergraduate student of economics, this will not come as a surprise. But it is still a
relatively novel discovery for many planners and politicians.
13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (2016: 3rd Quarter)
Fortunately, the media are waking up to the realisation that housing and land supply matters. The
most powerful infographic of 2016 was produced by
The
Wall Street Journal
. It showed what
happened to house prices in US cities that had expanded their residential areas between 1980 and
2010 – and those that had not.1 As was to be expected, greater land supply went hand in hand
with lower price increases.
The same link can be seen internationally. On its website,
The Economist
allows readers to
compare house price developments across a range of developed economies.2 The linked figure
contrasts the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States and Germany and other countries
over the past 40 years.
What stands out about
The Economist’s
graph is the stark contrast between Germany on the one
hand and the English-speaking world on the other. It was this contrast which initially drew me
into the housing debate.
Germany is probably the country with the most boring housing market in the world. It is a place
where nothing ever happens (at least as far as housing is concerned). German house prices
remain stable, and if it had not been for the euro crisis and negative interest rates, the Germans
would probably still be able to buy houses for the same prices in real terms that they paid twenty
or thirty years ago.
The story for other countries like Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and large parts
of the United States is a different one. There, house prices have gone through the (now
unaffordable) roof.
My own housing research focused on this difference: Why did Germany (and similarly
Switzerland) provide housing stability where much of the Anglosphere did not3
In a nutshell, the answer to this question has a lot to do with the way councils are funded. In
jurisdictions where local decision-makers stand to gain from new development, they will be
much more eager to make it happen.
In Germany and Switzerland, council budgets largely depend on their ability to attract new
residents and taxpayers. This is why both countries are have traditionally had a more responsive
and flexible housing supply side. The available financial incentives to planners and councillors
made all the difference to house prices in the long run.
In our work at The New Zealand Initiative, we have developed this ‘incentives approach’ further.
We have argued that it could be the key to solving housing affordability in New Zealand4, and
we have applied this thinking to other aspects of local government and resource management as
well.5
Of course, planning reform and liberalisation remain both important and desirable. But without
a financial framework that encourages and incentivises development, we will always struggle to
deliver the houses we need.
We need to tackle housing affordability urgently because the effects of unaffordable housing on
society are becoming more visible by the day. Policies that raise housing costs are always likely to
hit those on low incomes the hardest. Thus in our work on different measures of poverty and
inequality, we have argued that the best way to tackle both issues would be to make housing
more affordable.6
13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (2016: 3rd Quarter)
Especially at a time when there is a growing threat of populism to Western democracies, there is
a social imperative for making housing more affordable.
We should not accept extreme price levels in our housing markets. High house prices are not a
sign of city’s success but a sign of failure to deliver the housing that its citizens need.
Of course, if you are an investment banker, a media personality or a sports star, you will always
be able to live a decent life, no matter how expensive your city is. And if you are within this
group, you will also benefit most from the amenities that global cities provide.
If, however, you are teacher, a nurse, or shop assistant your experience of city life would be very
different. You would then have to put up with all the downsides of extreme price levels without
being able to participate in metropolitan life.
But is this the kind of society we want to live in And isn’t this kind of social polarisation exactly
the breeding ground for populism and resentment we are witnessing
For these reasons, I believe that making housing affordable for all citizens is more important
today than it has ever been.
I applaud Demographia’s continued advocacy in this area and welcome this latest edition of the
Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
Wellington, December 2016
Dr Oliver Hartwich
Executive Director
The New Zealand Initiative
nzinitiative.nz
13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (2016: 3rd Quarter)
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看