World Economic and Financial Surveys
Regional Economic Outlook
.........INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
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P
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Restarting the Growth Engine
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Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa. — Washington, D.C.: International
Monetary Fund, 2003–
v. ; cm. — (World economic and fnancial surveys, 0258-7440)
Began in 2003.
Some issues have thematic titles.
1. Economic forecasting — Africa, Sub-Saharan — Periodicals.2. Africa, Sub-Saharan —
Economic conditions — 1960 — Periodicals.3. Economic development — Africa, Sub-Saharan
— Periodicals.I. Title: Sub-Saharan Africa.II.International Monetary Fund.III. Series: World
economic and fnancial surveys.
HC800.R4 2017
ISBN: 978-1-47557-446-3 (paper)
ISBN: 978-1-47557-498-2 (Web PDF)
Te
Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa
is published twice a year, in the
spring and fall, to review developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Both projections and
policy considerations are those of the IMF staf and do not necessarily represent the
views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:
International Monetary Fund, Publication Services
P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090 (U.S.A.)
Tel.: (202) 623-7430Telefax: (202) 623-7201
E-mail : publications@imf
imf
elibrary.imf
iii
Contents
Abbreviations.........vi
Acknowledgments vii
Executive Summary...........ix
1. Restoring the Conditions for Strong and Sustainable Growth1
Limited Room for Maneuver ...2
Policies have been Expansionary ...........4
Te Pain is Spreading Within and Across Countries ....7
What Lies Ahead ........12
Coming Out Stronger 15
2. Restarting Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Engine ...... 27
Stylized Facts: Turning Points and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa .......28
What Happens Around Growth Turning Points.......32
Analyzing the Duration of Growth Spells .......36
Policy Considerations and Concluding Remarks ........42
3. Te Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa ...........49
Size and Nature of the Informal Economy .....50
Interaction between Informality and Economic Performance .54
Pathways to Expand the Formal Sector ..........57
Policy Implications ....60
Statistical Appendix .......... 69
Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–17 103
Boxes
1.1. Potential Spillovers from the Financial Sector 18
1.2. Firm Ownership in Sub-Saharan Africa and Intra-Regional Spillovers ...........20
1.3. Fostering Private Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa ...22
1.4. Strengthening Social Safety Nets ........23
3.1. Success in Expanding the Formal Economy: the Cases of Mauritius and Rwanda ......61
Tables
1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth .........13
1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomics Indicators .........14
3.1. Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: Comparison of Informality Rankings between
Multiple Indicators ..52
3.2. Sample of Sub-Saharan African Countries: Informal Employment, 2004–12 .55
3.3. Share of Informality and Policy Variables .......59
3.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Doing Business and Global Competitiveness Indicators with the Largest
Statistically Signifcant Diference between Low- and High-Informality Countries ..59
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