Textile & Apparel June 11, 2010 达芙妮国际 (0210 HK) ——英国路演纪要 Outperform Unchanged 事件: 我们为达芙妮国际在英国举行了路演。下文是纪要和我们的评论。大家关注的话题主要聚焦在 行业前景、商业模式、公司战略、利润率趋势和劳动力成本高企等 Comments: Haitao Wang Equity Analyst wanght@swsresearch Joyce Jia Equity Analyst jiatt@swsresearch Contact Yunyun Zhu (8621) 63295888×212 zhuyy@swsresearch 预计女鞋市场保持稳定的低双位数增长。女鞋行业竞争没有运动行业大，主要是进入壁 垒较高，且供应链更加复杂。女鞋市场以人民币300元为限，可分为中高端和低端大众 女鞋市场。公司旗下达芙妮品牌和鞋柜品牌皆定位于大众低端市场，主要竞争对手为街 边的当地品牌，而非百丽集团下的中高端品牌。相比这些低端当地品牌，达芙妮在供应 链和品牌知名度上有着绝对优势 关于商业模式，以自营渠道为主。不同于运动品牌，通过分销模式去拓展生意， 女鞋品牌公司基本以自建销售渠道为主，主要是女鞋品类繁多且供应链系统更 加复杂。就主品牌达芙妮，自营销售渠道占78%左右，其余22%为加盟。公司 旗下另外一个品牌“鞋柜”全部为自营。相比加盟，自营渠道能够更加及时的 对消费者偏好的变化作出反应，从而能够更好的控制存货以及在终端零售上取 得更佳表现 采用多品牌战略以更好分享行业增长。公司旗下两个大众定位的品牌占收入 86%，此外，公司通过并购富珍60%股权，挤入中高端女鞋市场。在并购后，富 珍旗下将运作6个中高端女鞋品牌。公司计划今年为富珍旗下品牌开出50家 店。富珍可以共享达芙妮在1、2线城市建立的完善的供应链系统，使之产生 协同效应 关于利润率和成本方面，公司管理层认为成本压力可以通过提价来转移，我们 初步测算，提价3%～4.5%就可转移劳动力成本带来的压力。由于劳动力成本占 销售成本15%，假定劳动力成本上涨20%～30%，公司只要提价3%～4.5%，就可 以取得同样的经营利润率水平。而年初至今，公司旗下的达芙妮品牌提价在高 单位数，鞋柜品牌在低单位数，因此我们对成本倒并未如市场那般担心。但是 由于今年1季度劳工短缺，使得产品供给未能跟上复苏的需求增长，这应该也 是今年1Q开店数目略低预期的一个原因。通过与外包厂商的协商，以及公司 的自有产能进一步从OEM转移到自由品牌，下半年供给将跟上，且开店步伐将 加速 投资建议：作为大众女鞋品牌的龙头，我们认为达芙妮将长期受益中国的 城镇化进程。我们欣赏公司在供应链持续改善以及在多品牌战略上的努 力。我们认为公司最有价值的是其自营的销售渠道。鉴于公司未来三年盈 利复合增长达到24.1%，我们觉得港币9.4元较合理，对应21.2倍2010 年PE，和16.8倍2011年PE，给予增持评级 The company or its affiliate may have equities of the listed corporation reviewed authorized by law. The company may also provide investment banking and consulting service to the listed corporation. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch for the relevant disclosure materials. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure in the last page. 本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户Shared User(sw-11)使用2 June 2010Short Comments Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page1 Investment highlights： What’s new: We hosted a UK non-deal roadshow for Daphne. Below are our takeaways and comments, mainly related to their market outlook, business model, business strategy, margin trends as well as labor cost issues. Women’s shoes: expect low-teen steady growth. Competition is weaker when compared to the sports sector, thanks to higher barriers to entry and more complicated supply chain requirements. The women’s shoe market can be divided into two segments: the mid-high end segment with prices above RMB300, and the mass market segment with prices below RMB300. Both Daphne and Shoebox brands target the mass market, and their major competitors are local shoe stores, as opposed to a large competitor like the Belle Group. Daphne has an absolute advantage over local shoe stores in terms of its supply chain system and brand name. Business model: most of the company’s sales channels are directly managed. Companies in the women’s shoe market usually directly manage stores rather than expand their business through franchising. This approach is quite different from the sports sector, mainly due to the more complicated SKUs and supply chain system in the women’s shoe market. For the Daphne brand, 78% of sales channels are self-owned, while franchise outlets account for the remaining 22%; meanwhile, the Shoebox brand, a mass market brand under Daphne International, is fully owned and operated by the company. We believe direct management of the sales channel allows the company to be more responsive to changes in consumer preferences, which will result in more efficient control of inventories and better retails sales performance. Multi-brand strategy to better capitalize on growth in the shoe market. Besides its two major mass market brands, which account for 86% of total revenue, the company has moved into the high-end shoe market via its acquisition of a 60% stake in Full Peal. After the acquisition, there will be six mid-to high women’s shoe brands managed under Full Peal’s operation team. The company plans to add 50 stores for Full Peal brands. We believe that synergy will be achieved since Full Peal will benefit from Daphne’s supply chain in tier 1 and 2 本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户Shared User(sw-11)使用3 June 2010Short Comments Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page2 cities Margins and cost pressures: Management believes cost pressure could be eased through an ASP increase. Our preliminary calculation indicated a 3%-4.5% ASP increase could offset a hike in labor costs. Based on our calculation, given that labor costs account for 15% of COGS, and given a 20%-30% labor cost increase, the company can record the same OPM by raising ASP from 3% to 4.5%. We also found that ASP for Daphne brand has increased by high single digits and ASP for shoebox increased by low single digits YTD, hence we are as concerned about cost pressures as the market is. However, due to labor shortage in 1Q10, we believe the product supply will lag behind recovery demand, which might be a reason for slower than expected store openings in 1Q10. Investment synopsis: as a leading mass market shoe brand, we believe Daphne will benefit from China’s ongoing urbanization progress. The company has focused on improving its supply chain as well as its multi-brand business strategy. We believe its self-owned sales channel is the company’s most valuable asset. We maintain our Outperform rating and TP of HK$9.40, representing 21.2x 10E P/E and 16.8x 11E P/E, considering its 3-year recurring earnings CAGR of 24.1%. 本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户Shared User(sw-11)使用4 June 2010Short Comments Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page3 Information Disclosure： The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst.The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst.None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies).A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relati