STUDY
JULY 2017
Artifcial
Intelligence and
National Security
Greg Allen
Taniel Chan
A study on behalf of Dr. Jason Matheny, Director of the U.S.
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)
BELFER CENTER STUDY
Belfer Center for Science and International Afairs
Harvard Kennedy School
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Statements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not imply
endorsement by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School, the Belfer Center for Science and
International Afairs, or IARPA.
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Copyright 2017, President and Fellows of Harvard College
Printed in the United States of America
STUDY
JULY 2017
Artifcial
Intelligence and
National Security
BELFER CENTER PAPER
Greg Allen
Taniel Chan
A study on behalf of Dr. Jason Matheny, Director of the U.S.
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank our advisors at Harvard Kennedy School and
Harvard Business School, Dr. Joseph Nye Jr. and Dr. Gautam Mukunda,
respectively, for their insight and dedication to the success of this project.
We also thank Dr. Matthew Bunn and Dr. John Park, who provided timely
feedback at multiple stages of this efort.
We are grateful to the Belfer Center for Science and International Afairs,
the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, and the
Social Enterprise Initiative for their generous fnancial support, without
which this research would not have been possible.
We would also like to thank our client, Dr. Jason Matheny, who went out of
his way to support this efort at every step.
We thank the dozens of experts across government, industry, and academia
who shared their time and expertise in being interviewed. We would
especially like to thank Matt Daniels at the Department of Defense’s Ofce
of Net Assessment. Matt’s brilliant insights can be found throughout this
document.
Finally, we would like to thank those individuals who took the time to review
and provide feedback on early drafs of this document, including Dr. Edward
Felten, Dr. Richard Danzig, Dr. Lynne Parker, Ambassador Richard Norland,
and Dr. Randy Bryant. Without their assistance, this document would have
been far weaker. Any remaining mistakes are ours alone.
Project Overview
Partially autonomous and intelligent systems have been used in military
technology since at least the Second World War, but advances in machine
learning and Artifcial Intelligence (AI) represent a turning point in the
use of automation in warfare. Tough the United States military and
intelligence communities are planning for expanded use of AI across their
portfolios, many of the most transformative applications of AI have not yet
been addressed.
In this piece, we propose three goals for developing future policy on AI
and national security: preserving U.S. technological leadership, supporting
peaceful and commercial use, and mitigating catastrophic risk. By look-
ing at four prior cases of transformative military technology—nuclear,
aerospace, cyber, and biotech—we develop lessons learned and recommen-
dations for national security policy toward AI.
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