人民币升值会加大中国企业在国外的投资力度,投资数额增加
根据国内和国际市场的发展,总结了国内外学者在汇率变动对对外直
接投资影响的研究成果,试图解释汇率变动与对外直接投资之间的关系
本文首先提出汇率变动与对外直接投资之间的理论基础,在此基础上对中
国对外直接投资的发展历程做了详细的分段说明,对每个发展历程的状况
做了归纳,然后结合中国对外直接投资的现状,发现中国0FDI的发展中存
在的问题,比如总体规模小,投资区域较集中等问题。用经验事实概括了
人民币汇率变动对外投资的区位、产业结构、投资主体以及投资方式的影
响。再次,本文利用2003-2011年中国对10个国家(发达国家和金砖国家)
的对外直接投资的数据,通过建立面板模型做实证分析。结果表明人民币
升值对中国的0FDI有显著的正相关关系,即人民币升值,中国的0FDI增
加。同时研究发现汇率波动对中国对外直接投资的关系,对发达国家来说,
人民币汇率变动幅度大会剌激中国对这些国家的投资额,但是对金砖国家
正好相反,汇率波动会减少对金砖国家的投资。最后针对中国对外投资和
人民币汇率的关系提出相应的对策建议,以促进中国对外直接投资的快速
发展
关键词:实际有效汇率,对外直接投资,汇率波动,面板模型
ABSTRACT
With the development of globalization,Chinese economy is in rapid
progress in the world. Relying on reform to promote the development,the
government encourages Chinese enterprises to carry out the activities of outward
direct investment,it makes Chinese enterprises continue to hone in on the
international market and strengthen the competitiveness of the foreign direct
investment in the world.Therefore the China can have a place to live in in the
world. China's outward direct investment is developing,at the same time, depend
on the domestic and foreign situation the RMB also continuously
reforms .Especially after the exchange rate reform in 2005,due to international
trade balance and increasing foreign reserves,RMB faced upward pressure.
RMB influences outward direct investment in China in a certain.On the one
hand,the RMB's appreciation will increase the investment of Chinese enterprises
in foreign countries,meanwhile investment amount is increasing;conversely
development of China's outward direct investment will stimulate the
appreciation of the RMB exchange rate,between of them have a positive
interactive relationship.
Relying on the development of domestic and international markets,it learns
from the research results of scholars at home and aboard on between exchange
rate and outward direct investment and tries to explain the relationships of
them.At first,this paper analyzes theoretical basis of the exchange rate's change
and fluctuation effect on international direct investment. With the analysis of the
history of china's outward direct investment ,this paper finds the development of
china's OFDI also have some problem,for example,small market,centralized
distribution of regional investment and so on.RMB exchange rate effects on the
four facts:location,industrial structure,investors and investing ways.This paper
uses foreign direct investment of china to 10 other countries (developed
countries and BRICS )data for the period from 2003 to 2011 ,then by using panel
model makes an empirical analysis.The results shows that the RMB exchange
rate level and volatility are remarkable factors which influence the Chinese
outward direct investment.That is,when RMB's appreciation will lead to a large
sum of China's OFDI’between of them have a positive relationship.A volatile
exchange rate of RMB would encourage China to increase outward direct
investment in developed countries,but in contrary,reducing the number in the
BRICES.Finally,based on the relationship of RMB's exchange rate and China's
OFDI,this paper proposes some policies and suggestions for china's outward
direct investment.
KEYWORDS: Effective Exchange Rate,Outward Direct Investment,Exchange
Rate Volatility,Panel Model
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