本文通过理论与实践相结合的研究方式,首先根据移动通信工程项目的特点,
提出了移动通信工程项目风险管理的模型,并以E公司的山东GPON项目为例,
分别从移动通信工程项目风险管理规划、风险识别、风险分析、风险应对和风险
监控5个方面对移动通信工程项目的风险管理做了全面的分析。
山东GPON项0风险管理规划是风险管理的基础,在项目中规划以及设计如
何对项F丨风险进行管理的过程就是风险规划,包括风险管理的方法、人员组织、
汇报的形式、类型和级别的说明、甚准、时间周期等内容。在风险识别中,本文
中利用了一些具体的工具和技术包括头脑风暴法、德尔菲法和核对表法对山东
GPON项目上的风险进行了识别;将识别出的风险编制成山东GPON项目风险识
别报告,然后采用调查和专家打分的方法将风险识别报告上列举的风险通过风险
概率矩阵进行分析并尝试性的采用了蒙特卡洛模拟法进行了定量分析;接着根据
分析结果并结合规避风险、风险转移、风险降低以及风险自留等风险应对方法,
分别从项目的启动阶段、计划阶段、实施阶段和收尾阶段选择适合的风险应对措
施。山东GPON通过专门的活动对风险规划、识别、分析、应对全过程进行风险
监控,包括监控风险的状态变化、风险应对措施的调整、风险潜在的变化趋势等。
本论文站在风险管理全过程的角度来对移动通信工程项目的风险管理进行了
分析,并尝试性的采用了蒙特卡洛模拟法等定量分析工具对项目的风险进行了分
析,这些分析结果将会对风险管理者进行风险决策提供一定的依据。
关键词:移动通信工程;项目管理;风险管理
ABSTRACT
The mobile communication engineering project lasts long and needs large
investment and intensive technology input, involving many domains and departments.
To control the schedule,quality and cost of the complex project during the construction
process,prevent and reduce risks, and make equipment enter network in time, it is
particularly important to conduct risk management for the mobile communication
engineering project.
This paper, based on the characteristics of the mobile communication engineering
project, proposes the risk management model for the project through the combination of
theory and practice. It takes Shandong GPON Project of E company as an example and
performs a comprehensive analysis to the risk management of the mobile
communication engineering project separately from the perspectives of risk
management planning, risk identification, risk assessment, risk response, and risk
monitoring and control.
Risk management planning is the foundation of risk management, which plans and
designs how to carry on risk management, including the risk management methods,
personnel organization, report forms, description of types and levels,benchmark, time
period, etc. In risk identification, this paper adopts some specific tools and techniques,
such as brainstorming, Delphy method and checklist method. This paper compiles the
identified risks into a report of risk identification. Then a risk probability matrix is used
to analyse the risks listed on the report by way of investigation and expert scoring;
Monte Carlo simulation method is tried for quantitative analysis, following which
suitable risk measures are selected according to the analysis results combined with the
risk response methods of risk aversion, risk transfer, risk mitigation and risk retention,
respectively from the project stages of initiation, planning, implementation and
conclusion. GPON conducts monitoring and control to risk planning, identification,
analyzation and response through dedicated activities,, including the risk status changes,
the adjustment of risk response measures, and the change trend of risks, etc.
This paper analyzes risk management of the mobile communication engineering
project from the perspective of the entire process of risk management, and tries to use
the Monte Carlo simulation method for quantitative analysis of project risk. And these
analysis results will provide a basis for risk decision-making.
Key words: mobile communication engineering project; project management; risk
management
第1章绪论
1.1选题背景和意义
1.1.1选题背景
十七大提出了信息化融合:1:业化的丨丨I标,成立了工业信息化部。中国的信总
产业、工业和现代服务业发展从此进入一个全新的阶段。在过去几十年中,电信
业一直以儿倍于国民经济增长的速度高速成长,电信业的基础网络建设以及电信
网络提供的固定电话、移动屯话服务以及数据通信服务,被描述成“拉动” 1民
经济培长的推动力。
随斗巾业分拆1TU11以及3G牌照的下发,屯彳,Y运&39;/Y商的投资几始加大,
同吋R家对于扩大内需政策的调整,见加加快了巾屯信网络建设的发展速度,
进而出现相对繁荣的)而,数据通倍网、GPON宽带接入网、光传输网络等基础
通倍网络的项〖丨建设出现了一个相对的高潮。
在移动通信工积项丨彳建设的高潮中,如何保证在移动通信工程施工过程中的
工期,质量和成本,防止和降低移动通信工程项目中出现的风险,按时完成设谷
的入网,风险管理变得尤为重要。
截止2011年,中国移动通信集团(简称“中移动公司”)的WLAN项建设
全W范围共建成160万个AP节点,2012年新增120万个AP节点。中移动公司全
业务必然选择是以PON技术为基础的扁平化宽带网络,GPON产业链已成熟,中
移动公司在全网的20多个街已经开始进行PON试点,PON的总量达到十力端口。
随着屮移动公id网络规模的不断扩大,通信行业的竞争n益激烈,通信设备
厂家为能进入屮移动公司的免屮采购的行列,不断伍低投标价格。利润的降低,
势必造成设备厂家对移动通信工程建设过程屮的风险管理工作看得非常重要。在
保证工期和质量的前提下,严格控制项M的成本,并通过识别,分析,响应和监
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