摘要
很长一段时间,以净现值(NPV)法为核心的传统财务分析方法一直是企业投资决策
采取的主要分析工具。但是光伏发电项目具有投资运营时间长、投资不可逆性和较高的
不确定性等特点,传统的投资决策方法忽视了光伏发电投资的期权价值,没有意识到光
伏发电投资的不确定性因素也可以形成投资机会价值,从而对高投入、高风险的光伏发
电项目不能进行正确的估价,往往造成光伏发电投资项目真实价值的低估,导致错误的
决策。因此,本文结合大型光伏并网电站项目,将实物期权方法应用到实际的光伏发电项
目的投资决策中,弥补了传统的投资决策方法在光伏发电投资决策中的不足之处,同时
建立的实物期权方法的应用框架与步骤,这对科学的评价大型光伏发电项目,并做出合
理投资决策具有重要的现实意义。

本文详细介绍了实物期权理论及研究文献,并将实物期权与传统的净现值方法相比
较。在此基础上对光伏发电项目的不确定性进行了分析,总结了其本身自有的不确定性
特征,从项目开发过程中识别和分析具有的期权价值,引入光伏发电投资分析的实物期
权模型,对项目相关的延迟、扩张等实物期权进行了定价研究。最后本文应用实物期权
方法对某企业SZS大型光伏并网电站项目进行实证分析。论文的研究工作,从实物期权角
度研究新兴产业光伏并网发电项目投资评价问题,能更科学地体现了投资项目所蕴含的
价值,提高项目科学投资分析水平。

关键词:实物期权;光伏发电;投资决策
Abstract
For a long time, the traditional financial analysis methods such as the net present value
(NPV) method has been the main analytical tool used for corporate investment decisions
taken. But regarding PV plan investment, it has the characters of a long-time investment, the
irreversibility and higher uncertainty. The traditional investment decision-making ignores the
option value of the photovoltaic power generation investment. It hasn't been aware that the
uncertainties of PV power generation investment will also contribute to the value of the
investment opportunities. As a result, for this kind of high input, high risk of photovoltaic
power generation projects, it often leads to the underestimation of the true value of the
photovoltaic power generation investment projects, leads to wrong decisions.
This paper proposed and applies the real options for investment decision-making model
of PV power generation investment, in order to decrease the deficiencies of the traditional
method of investment decisions. It has important practical significance for scientific
evaluation of SZS large grid-connected PV power generation project and making reasonable
investment decisions. This paper first gave the overview of the real options theory and
research literature in detail, and compared NPV and real options with traditional methods.
Based on photovoltaic power generation projects uncertainty analysis, it summed up the
project's own uncertainty characteristics, identified and analyzed the option value from the
project development process. It also proposed a decision-making frame for the photovoltaic
power generation investment based on real option model, gave the real options pricing for the
project delays, expansion and so on. Finally this paper applied this real option frame in
evaluation of SZS large grid-connected PV power generation project. The evaluation result is
reasonable and it showed that this real option frame is more applicable than the traditional
method in PV power generation projects.
Key Words: Real option; PV power generation; Investment Decision