Ford战略分析报告－摩根斯坦利 Overview Auto Outlook: Same problems; Less of them Global Dilemma: Most participants spending for growth yet the industry does not grow. Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery. Competitive pressures are likely to remain difficult. Weaker dollar could level provide some offset. Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earnings. Big Three opportunity: Actual quality is better than perceived quality. Global Light Vehicle Sales: Slow Growth Global Excess Capacity at 25%-30%or 20mm units CapEx / D&A FY2003E: OEMs Spending for Growth Zero Sum Game Modest Demand Growth Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line Demand Weighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs. Sales Off Lease Vehicles Begin to Decline Average Maturity of Vehicle Loans (months) Taking Longer to Establish Consumer Equity Affordability Near 25 Year Best ......