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2010年野村证券能源煤炭钢铁铁路行业市场研究报告(4个文件).rar

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《2010年野村证券能源煤炭钢铁铁路行业市场研究报告》(4个文件).rar Action Weekly update: spot prices of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao (QHD) rose by 2.2% and Shanxi ex-mine was unchanged. As of 26 April 2010, the QHD spot price was up 22.1% y-y and down 10.2% YTD. While Australia's price at Newcastle was down 0.5% w-w, QHD is now at a 9.4% premium to Australian prices. QHD inventory decreased to 5.1mn tonnes and inventory at IPPs increased to 13 days. 􀁡 Catalysts Stronger power demand in FY10F and lower coal supply growth owing to accelerating industry consolidation. Anchor themes We expect a demand recovery on stronger GDP growth, intermittent bottlenecks in transportation and limited coal imports to support China's coal price at a premium to the Australian price. The closure of small coal mines and accelerating industry consolidation should enhance the pricing power of leading coal producers. Weekly update on coal (26 April 2010) 􀁣 Spot coal price: QHD up by 2.2%, Newcastle down 0.5% w-w The QHD benchmark for FOB spot thermal coal prices rose 2.2% w-w to RMB705/t (+22.1% y-y, Shanxi premium blend at 5,500 kcal/kg) as of 26 April. The Shanxi benchmark ex-mine price remained flat at RMB525/t (+20.7% y-y). Australia's price at Newcastle decreased 0.5% w-w to US$98.3/t (+55.7% y-y) as of 16 April. The QHD-Newcastle coal price premium, thus, is 9.4% (up 1.3pp w-w). 􀁤 Inventory: QHD down 13.7% w-w, IPP inventory at 13 days QHD coal inventory fell 13.7% w-w to 5.1mn tonnes as of 24 April 2010 (the average level has been 4.88mn tonnes since 2002). Coal inventory at power plants increased to 13 days as of 25 April 2010. January 2010 national coal inventory of 169mn tonnes was down 10.7% y-y and fell 0.7% m-m. 􀁥 Positive on China coal sector and Neutral on China power sector We are long-term positive on China's coal industry, given a balanced demand/supply outlook, intermittent transportation bottlenecks and accelerated industry consolidation. Demand strength attributable to accelerating GDP growth and limitations on coal imports would support QHD spot coal at a premium to Australian prices, in our view. On the contrary, despite attractive-looking valuations (0.8-1.8x book; 10-40% below replacement cost), we are Neutral on China IPPs, as we think higher coal costs and interest rates in 2010F should offset gains from utilisation