《2009年瑞士信贷美国制药行业发展研究报告(英文版)》(32页).rar US　Major　Pharmaceuticals COMMENT Tax　Reform　Lacks　Detail,　Worst　Case　Scenario Materially　Negative ■ The　Market　is　left　confused　regarding　the　specific　intent　of　President Obama＇s　budget　proposal　reference　to　＂implement　international enforcement,　reform　deferral　and　other　tax　reform　policies.＂　There　could　be many　important　nuances　to　the　plans　which　are　projected　to　generate　$210Bn over　10　years. ■ The　＇worst　case　scenario＇　that　we　could　imagine　is　a　complete　elimination　of the　foreign　profit　tax　deferral　and　a　35%　consolidated　tax　rate　for　all　companies. This　would　be　a　material　negative　for　all　of　our　names　(Exhibit　1)　with　2010 earnings　decreasing　from　6.8%　for　PFE/WYE　pro　forma　to　22.2%　for　SGP.　Of course,　this　negative　would　hurt　many　other　important　sectors　in　the　U.S.　Market. ■ The　risk　is　that　the　revenue　projections　from　reforming　tax　deferral　are　large　and populist　politics　are　against　the　companies.　On　the　flipside,　raising　taxes　in　a recession　is　controversial　and　corporations　could　threaten　to　relocate headquarters　outside　the　US,　which　would　bode　poorly　for　employment. ■ In　Obama＇s　campaign　he　said　it　was　his　desire　to　broaden　the　corporate　tax base　and　eliminate　special　preferences.　He　specifically　mentioned　reforming　tax deferral　to　end　the　incentive　for　companies　to　ship　jobs　overseas.　The　one-liner is　his　budget　proposal　is　very　vague,　implying　little　detail　and　possibly significant　future　debate.　The　projections　go　from　$15Bn　to　$20Bn　to　$25Bn and　then　increase　by　$1Bn/year.　These　broad　estimates　have　the　appearance of　placeholders,　put　in　to　meet　the　deadline　with　details　to　be　determined　later. ■ Two　possible　examples　for　reformin...