I 摘要 PPP（public-private partnership)是指政府和社会资本合作，政府为增强公共产 品和服务供给能力，提高供给效率，通过特许经营、购买服务、股权合作等方式， 与社会资本建立的利益共享，风险共担的长期合作关系。PPP 项目一般资金需求巨 大，而商业银行的性质使得其必然是市场最重要的资金供给者之一。BC 银行是一 家城市商业银行，与地方政府有着天然的联系，在当地市场拥有十分丰富的资源 优势，但受制于监管政策，传统的政府融资渠道已难以持续，面临资源优势无法 有效转化为业绩的困境，而目前 PPP 项目的前景广阔，是 BC 银行未来发展的重 要方向。 BC 银行正在参与的 JK 高校项目位于在 NJ 市，是财政部重点 PPP 示范项目， 本文选取 BC 银行正在参与的 JK 高校项目进行风险管理，通过列出风险清单、现 场调查相结合等方法，对项目风险进行识别，识别出 JK 高校项目存在 6 个一级风 险指标，分别是政策风险、宏观经济风险、法律风险、财务风险、建设风险、市 场和信用风险。一级风险指标具体细分为 19 个二级风险指标，包括政策稳定性风 险、政府决策和审批延误风险、汇率变动风险、利率变动风险、通货膨胀风险、 法律缺失风险、法律变更风险、项目投资超出预算风险、费用支付风险、运营成 本超支风险、项目融资风险、股东随意抽回资金金风险、地质风险、不可抗力风 险、技术风险、完工风险、市场竞争风险、市场运营风险、政府信用风险。然后 通过向 20 位专家进行访问，运用层次分析法对项目风险进行评估，发现 JK 高校 风险由高到底的是：市场和信用风险、财务风险、建设风险、宏观经济风险、法 律风险和政策风险。从而针对性的提出 BC 银行应对 6 种风险的具体措施。最后通 过总结，提出 BC 银行在参与 PPP 项目的风险管理建议，包括建立 PPP 项目准入 体；健全风险管理体系，加强贷前贷中贷后管理，丰富风险识别和风险评估方法； 丰富 PPP 相关金融产品，减低项目整体风险；加强 PPP 人才对外建设等。使 BC 银行未来参与 PPP 项目的过程更加顺利，加强 BC 银行的经营优势，扩大在当地 资产发展业务中的有利地位，本文具有较强的现实意义。 关键词：商业银行，PPP，风险管理ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT PPP(public private partnership) refers to the long-term cooperation between the government and social capital. In order to enhance the supply capacity of public goods and services and improve the supply efficiency, the government establishes a long-term cooperative relationship with social capital through franchising, purchasing services and equity cooperation.which aims at providing solutions for public goods and services by the government and social capital. PPP projects are often in huge demand for funds, and the nature of commercial banks makes them one of the most important capital suppliers in the market. BC bank is a city commercial bank, which has a natural connection with the local government. It has an extremely rich resource advantage in the local market. However, subject to regulatory policies, the traditional government financing channels have been difficult to sustain and it faces the difficulty that the resource advantages cannot be effectively transformed into performance. At present, the prospect of PPP projects is broad, which is an important direction of BC bank's future development. The JK university project that BC bank is participating in is located in NJ city. It is a key demonstration project of the Ministry of Finance. This paper selects JK university project which BC bank is participating in for risk management, identifying the project risk by listing the risk and fielding growth investigation, and identifies six first level risk indicators of JK university project, which are policy risk, macroeconomic risk, legal risk, financial risk, construction risk, market and credit risk. The first level risk index is subdivided into 19 second level risk indicators, including policy stability risk, government decision-making and approval delay risk, exchange rate change risk, interest rate change risk, inflation risk, lack of law risk, law change risk, project investment exceeding budget risk, expense payment risk, operating cost overrun risk, project financing risk, shareholders' random withdrawal the capital recovery risk, geological risk, force majeure risk, technical risk, completion risk, market competition risk, market operation risk and government credit risk. By interviewing 20 experts and using analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the project risk, it concludes that the risks of JK University from high to low are: market and credit risk, financial risk, construction risk, macroeconomic risk, legal risk and policy risk. Therefore, it puts forward specific measures for BC bank to deal with six kinds of risks. To sum up, theABSTRACT III paper puts forward the risk management suggestions for BC bank in PPP project, including establishing PPP project access system, improving risk management system, strengthening pre-loan and post-loan management, enriching risk identification and risk assessment methods, enriching PPP related financial products to reduce the overall risk of the project, and strengthening the external construction of PPP talents. This paper has a strong practical significance to make BC bank participate in PPP projects more smoothly in the future, strengthen the business advantages of BC bank and expand its advantageous position in the local asset development business. Keywords: Commercial Bank, Public Private Partnership, Risk management目录 IV 目录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景 ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 本文研究的目的和意义 ........................................................................ 1 1.1.2 论文结构 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 ............................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ........................................................................................ 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ........................................................................................ 4 1.2.3 国内外研究现状评价 ............................................................................ 5 1.3 研究内容和方法 ............................................................................................... 5 1.3.1 研究内容 ................................................................................................ 5 1.3.2 研究方法 ................................................................................................ 6 第二章 理论基础............................................................................................................ 7 2.1 PPP 模式的相关基本理论 ................................................................................ 7 2.1.1 PPP 的定义 ............................................................................................. 7 2.1.2 PPP 的特征 ............................................................................................. 7 2.1.3 中国特色的 PPP 管理体系 ................................................................... 8 2.2 风险理论 ........................................................................................................... 9 2.2.1 风险 ........................................................................................................ 9 2.2.2 风险类型 ................................................................................................ 9 2.3 风险管理理论 ................................................................................................. 10 2.3.1 风险识别 .............................................................................................. 10 2.3.2 风险评估 .............................................................................................. 11 2.3.3 风险应对 .............................................................................................. 12 第三章 JK 高校 PPP 项目案例介绍........................................................................... 13 3.1 项目参与方介绍 ............................................................................................. 13 3.1.1 贷款银行介绍 ...................................................................................... 13 3.1.2 其他参与方介绍 .................................................................................. 13 3.2 JK 高校项目介绍............................................................................................. 14 3.2.1 JK 高校项目背景.................................................................................. 14 3.2.2 项目概况 .............................................................................................. 14目录 V 3.2.3 项目运作流程 ...................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 项目的可行性分析 .............................................................................. 15 第四章 BC 银行参与 JK 高校 PPP 项目风险管理分析............................................. 19 4.1 风险识别 ......................................................................................................... 19 4.1.1 政策风险 .............................................................................................. 20 4.1.2 宏观经济风险 ...................................................................................... 20 4.1.3 法律风险 .............................................................................................. 21 4.1.4 财务风险 .............................................................................................. 22 4.1.5 建设风险 .............................................................................................. 23 4.1.6 市场和信用风险 .................................................................................. 24 4.2 风险评估 ......................................................................................................... 26 4.2.1 构建 PPP 项目风险评价指标体系 ..................................................... 26 4.2.2 构建判断矩阵 ...................................................................................... 27 4.2.3 计算风险权重 ...................................................................................... 28 4.2.4 风险权重表与结果分析 ...................................................................... 33 第五章 BC 银行参与 PPP 项目风险管理的对策和建议........................................... 34 5.1 BC 银行针对 JK 高校项目的风险应对措施 ................................................. 34 5.1.1 针对市场和信用风险的应对措施 ...................................................... 34 5.1.2 针对财务风险的应对措施 .................................................................. 36 5.1.3 针对建设风险的应对措施 .................................................................. 37 5.1.4 针对宏观经济风险的应对措施 .......................................................... 38 5.1.5 针对法律风险的应对措施 .................................................................. 39 5.1.6 针对政策风险的应对措施 .................................................................. 39 5.2 BC 银行参与 PPP 项目风险管理的建议 ....................................................... 40 5.2.1 建立 PPP 项目贷前准入体系 ............................................................. 40 5.2.2 健全贷款前中后全流程风险管理体系 .............................................. 42 5.2.3 优化风险识别和评估管理体系 .......................................................... 43 5.2.4 丰富 PPP 相关金融产品 ..................................................................... 43 5.2.5 加强 PPP 项目风险管理人才建设 ..................................................... 44 第六章 结论.................................................................................................................. 45 致 谢............................................................................................................................ 47