公司在生存中不仅面临着激烈的竞争，同时还要面对各种未知的风险。财务风险 和经营状况直接决定着企业的生存与发展，一旦爆发风险，将会陷企业于困境之中。 因此，企业要不断创新，完善内部财务管理环境与制度，提高财务风险的诊断能力和 防范手段。及时识别、评价进而防范风险。 本文首先对企业财务风险及管理程序相关理论进行了阐述，站在制药行业的角 度，以以岭药业为研究对象，结合以岭药业的实际情况筛选出13个财务指标，运用 层次分析法和功效系数法构建财务风险评价模型，围绕当前以岭药业面临的问题，对 其进行风险评价。结合实际调研，对以岭药业财务报表2010年至2018年的相关数据 及财务指标进行剖析，从筹资风险、投资风险、营运风险、分配风险四个方面提出了 建议。 在筹资方面，控制企业的负债规模；合理安排以岭药业负债比例，最大限度降低 筹资的风险。在投资方面，加强资本运作，完善业务链条，提升公司市值，助力公司 发展；并围绕主营业务，加快资本运作，引进资本市场的优势资源；加强投资项目效 益风险的防范。在营运方面，关注原材料的价格及预测波动，完善价格预警，保证有 足够的资金维持企业的运转。在收益分配方面，选择合适的收益分配制度，按劳分配； 同时适度分配，激发股东、员工积极性。最后，建立财务风险预警机制，尽可能的降 低财务风险的概率和损失，促进公司实现平稳持续的发展。 关键词：层次分析法；功效系数法；风险评价与防范 I ABSTRACT Companies not only face fierce competition in survival, but also face various unknown risks. Financial risks and operating conditions directly determine the survival and development of enterprises, once the outbreak of risk, will be trapped in the enterprise. Therefore, enterprises should constantly innovate, improve the internal financial management environment and system, improve the ability of financial risk diagnosis and prevention means. Timely identification, evaluation and risk prevention have become important research objects. This article first to the enterprise financial risk and management program for basic research, related theory, a theoretical basis to ridge pharmaceutical industry as the research object, using the survey method, risk of ridge pharmaceutical industry from 2010 to 2018 financial statements of related data and financial indicators analysis, from the financing risk, investment risk, operational risk, distribution, four aspects of the basic situation of the financial risk, based on the basic description of the financial situation analysis ridge pharmaceutical industry faces financial risk. Then, 13 financial indicators were selected based on the financial analysis results and the actual situation of ling pharmaceutical, and the importance of weight of indicators was judged by the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the financial risk evaluation model is constructed by virtue of the efficiency coefficient method, and the risk evaluation is carried out around the current problems faced by yiling pharmaceutical. Finally, according to the current problems faced by yiling pharmaceutical, appropriate Suggestions for improvement are found. In terms of financing, control the debt scale of enterprises; Reasonable arrangement to ridge pharmaceutical liability ratio to minimize the risk of financing. In terms of investment, strengthen capital operation, improve business chain, enhance the market value of the company, and help the company to develop; And around the main business, speed up the capital operation, the introduction of capital market advantage resources; Strengthen the prevention of benefit risks of investment projects. In terms of operation, we will pay attention to the price of raw materials and forecast fluctuations, improve price warning, and ensure sufficient funds to maintain the operation of the enterprise. In terms of income distribution, we should choose an appropriate income distribution system and distribute according to work. At the same time, III 制药企业财务风险的识别与防范研究——基于以岭药业的案例分析 appropriate distribution, to prevent shareholders, employees enthusiasm reduction. Finally, the establishment of financial risk warning mechanism, as far as possible to reduce the probability of financial risk and loss, promote the steady and sustainable development of the company. This paper aims to provide a rich perspective for peer financial risk analysis and provide reference for similar enterprises to identify and prevent financial risk. KEYWORDS: analytic hierarchy process；Efficiency coefficient method；Risk assessment and prevention IV 河北地质大学硕士学位论文 目 录 摘要 ...................................................................................................................................... Ⅰ Abstract ................................................................................................................................ Ⅱ 第一章 绪论 ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1研究背景和意义 ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1研究背景 ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2研究意义 ......................................................................................................... 2 1.2研究方法与研究思路及结构框架 ........................................................................... 2 图1.1结构框架图 ................................................................................................... 3 1.3主要结论及建议 ....................................................................................................... 3 1.4预期贡献及不足 ....................................................................................................... 4 第二章 文献综述 ................................................................................................................ 5 2.1财务风险管理文献综述 ........................................................................................... 5 2.2财务风险预警模型文献综述 ................................................................................... 6 2.3制药行业财务风险研究的文献综述 ....................................................................... 8 第三章 概念界定与理论基础 .......................................................................................... 11 3.1财务风险的界定 ..................................................................................................... 11 3.2财务风险的分类 ..................................................................................................... 11 3.2.1筹资风险 ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2投资风险 ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.3营运风险 ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.4收益分配风险 ............................................................................................... 13 3.3财务风险管理程序 ................................................................................................. 13 3.3.1财务风险识别 ............................................................................................... 13 3.3.2财务风险评价 ............................................................................................... 13 3.3.3财务风险控制 ............................................................................................... 18 第四章 以岭药业概况及财务风险评价 .......................................................................... 19 41以岭药业概况 .......................................................................................................... 19 4.1.1公司简介 ....................................................................................................... 19 V 制药企业财务风险的识别与防范研究——基于以岭药业的案例分析 4.1.2组织结构 ....................................................................................................... 19 4.1.3股权结构 .............................