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MBA毕业论文_云港供电公司配电自动化工程投资效益及风险分析PDF

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文本描述
电网是现代经济社会发展不可或缺的基础设施,电网的投资建设与运行维护是服务国计民生 的重要举措。但是,电网建设工程项目过程比较复杂、资金量大、参与的主体较多、建设的周期 一般较长,项目投资建设过程中需要考虑的风险越来越多变。因此能够清楚地识别新形势下电网 建设工程项目的投资效益与风险并进行评价分析具有重要意义。本文介绍了连云港供电公司和所 属片区电网的基本概况,以及该公司生产管理相关情况,介绍了连云港供电公司配电自动化项目 的实施区域概况和配电一次网架现状,详细解读了配电自动化工程的整体规划目标,列出了该项 目的投资情况,分析了该工程的项目特点,指出该工程可能带来的高投资成本难以收回,进而引 发公司运营管理风险等项目潜在问题。 本文将连云港供电公司配电自动化工程作为研究对象,研究这个工程项目的投资效益,对其 工程投资的风险进行分析。主要内容包括:第一,为了研究此工程项目的投资效益,本文梳理了 1项成本性指标和10项效益性指标,同时介绍了所有评估指标的计量方法,以此建立了连云港供 电公司配电自动化工程投资效益评估指标体系;第二,依据适用、先进、客观的原则,选取了单 位投资所供电量、供电可靠性、区域GDP贡献率、网损率4项效益性指标作为本文进行投资效 益评估的核心指标。通过分析测算得出4项核心效益性指标的数值,合并得出该工程的年度综合 投资效益为539.6万元;第三,在工程投资风险分析方面,本文仔细分析了此工程项目的投资环 境风险、项目实施前期风险、基建期风险、运营维护期风险这4个负向风险,并创新性地提出延 缓后续一次设备投资、减少新建线路重复投资两项正向投资风险;第四,基于以上风险分析,本 文提出了风险影响程度标准,运用层次分析法确定了风险模型评判因素集,并建立了高风险,次 高风险,中度风险,次低风险,低风险五个维度的判断集。同时,结合国网连云港供电公司的实 际情况,提出了风险相对强弱程度判断,建立了A-B层次、B1-C层次、B2-C层次、B3-C层次、 B4-C层次的判断矩阵,根据模糊综合评估方法并结合专家意见,得到各个指标的模糊值。通过 综合评估得出最终的风险综合评估值是0.41,风险综合评估结果是中等偏低,该工程项目的最大 隶属度为0.57,工程项目的风险评估指标为0.43,风险评估为中等偏低风险。得出连云港供电公 司配电自动化工程项目的风险评估结论为中等偏低。本文的研究结论使得以国家电网公司为代表 的央企在做大型电力项目投资时,更加注重对经济效益的要求和对投资风险的把控。 关键词:配电自动化,投资效益,风险分析 连云港供电公司配电自动化工程投资效益及风险分析 II Abstract The power grid is an indispensable infrastructure for modern economic and social development. The construction and maintenance of the power grid is an important measure to serve the national economy and the people's livelihood. But, the process of power grid construction project is rather complicated and involving large amount of funds. The main body of participation is more and the construction cycle is generally longer. More and more risks need to be considered in the process of project investment and construction. Therefore, it is of great significance to clearly identify the investment benefits and risks of power grid construction projects under the new situation and to evaluate and analyze them. This article introduces briefly the basic situation of Lianyungang Power Supply Company and its power area, and its production management. It introduces the implementation area of distribution automation project of Lianyungang power supply Company and the present situation of the power distribution grid frame, as well as its planning target in detail. The investment situation of the project is listed, and the characteristics of the project are analyzed. It is pointed out that the high investment cost that the project may bring is difficult to recover, and then causes the potential problems of the company's operation management risk. In this paper, the distribution automation project of Lianyungang power supply company is taken as the research object. This paper studies the investment benefit of this project. The risk of the project investment is analyzed. The main contents include four aspects. First, in order to study the investment benefit of this project, this paper reviews 1 cost indicators and 10 indicators of profitability. At the same time, the measurement methods of all evaluation indexes are introduced. Based on this, the index system of investment benefit evaluation for distribution automation projects of Lianyungang power supply company is established. Second,according to the principles of application, advanced and objectivity,four benefit indexes are selected as the core indexes of investment benefit evaluation in this paper, which are power supply quantity per unit investment, power supply reliability, regional GDP contribution rate and power loss rate. Through analysis and calculation, we get 4 core benefit indicators. The combined investment benefit of the project is 5 million 396 thousand yuan. Third,in the aspect of project investment risk analysis, this paper carefully analyzes the investment environment risk, project implementation risk, capital construction risk, operation and maintenance risk of the four negative risks. And innovatively put forward two positive investment risks of delaying the investment of the follow-up equipment and reducing the repeated investment of the new line. Fourth, based on the above risk analysis, this paper puts forward the standard of risk influence degree. The analytic hierarchy process is 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 III used to identify the risk factors. It also establishes a set of five dimensions: high risk, sub-high risk, moderate risk, sub-low risk and low risk. At the same time, combined with the actual situation of Lianyungang power supply company, we put forward the judgement of relative strength and risk. The judgement matrix of A-B level, B1-C level, B2-C level, B3-C level and B4-C level is established. According to fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and combined with expert opinions, we get the fuzzy values of each index. Through comprehensive evaluation, the final risk comprehensive assessment value is 0.41. The result of risk comprehensive assessment is medium low. The maximum membership degree of the project is 0.57, the risk assessment index of the project is 0.43, and the risk assessment is medium to low risk. It is concluded that the risk assessment conclusion of the distribution automation project of Lianyungang power supply company is medium low. The conclusion of this paper makes the central enterprises, represented by State Grid Corporation, pay more attention to the requirement of economic benefit and the control of investment risk when they invest in large-scale power projects. Keywords: Distribution automation project; Investment benefit; Risk analysis 南京航空航天大学硕士论文 V 目 录 第一章 绪 论 .......... 1 1.1 论文研究背景 .. 1 1.2研究的意义与目的.......................... 1 1.3 国内外研究综述 ............................. 2 1.3.1 国外研究现状.......................... 2 1.3.2国内研究现状........................... 3 1.3.3文献综述小结........................... 5 1.4 研究方法和内容 ............................. 5 1.4.1研究方法 ... 5 1.4.2研究内容 ... 6 第二章 投资效益和投资风险评估方法 .. 8 2.1 投资效益评估方法 ......................... 8 2.1.1 投资效益评估指标体系 .......... 8 2.1.2 评估指标量化.......................... 8 2.2 投资效益评估指标选取原则 ....... 10 2.3 投资风险综合评估法 ................... 11 2.3.1 综合评估法简介 .................... 11 2.3.2 层次分析法的基本原理 ........ 11 2.4 本章小结 ........ 13 第三章 连云港供电公司配电自动化工程投资现状分析 ... 14 3.1连云港电网概况 ........................... 14 3.2项目概况 ........ 14 3.2.1 实施区域概况........................ 14 3.2.2 配电一次网架现状 ................ 15 3.2.3 配电自动化工程规划目标 .... 16 3.3配电自动化工程投资情况 ............ 19 3.3.1配电自动化工程总投资 ......... 19 3.3.2一次设备投资......................... 19 3.3.3主战系统及信息交互总线投资 ............................ 20 连云港供电公司配电自动化工程投资效益及风险分析 VI 3.3.4通信系统投资......................... 20 3.3.5终端二次设备投资 ................. 21 3.3.6辅助工程投资......................... 21 3.4配电自动化工程投资特点 ............ 21 3.4.1投资规模较大......................... 21 3.4.2投资回报不确定 ...................