地方地政为了推动本地区的经济发展，却受困于地方财政的财权、事权不相匹配， 导致地方财政缺口较大，地方政府性债务逐步呈现快速增长之势。通过分析，地方政 府性债务资金主要作用于当地基础设施建设、民生工程上，以优化该区域资源配置格 局、推动经济发展、加快城市化为目的，服务于民生。由2013年度的全国政府性债 务审计可得出，地方政府负有债偿还责任增长过快，投入到建设上的资金回流周期长， 极大可能使其财政缺口难以弥补，引发财政金融风险。所以在地方建设上应重视此类 政府性债务的比重，并及时采取防范措施。在我国，地方政府性债务资金主要会使用 在基础设施建设和民生工程上，进而优化区域的资源配置格局，推动地方经济发展， 加快城市化发展步伐，更好的服务于民生，促进了社会的和谐与稳定。然而，在建设 发展中我们也要清楚的认识到，地方政府性债务的庞大易引发财政、金融风险，所以 必须加强重视和使用措施进行防范。党的十九大报告中提出的三大攻坚战之一的就是 防控金融风险。中央政府为了防控地方政府性债务，出台了一系列的法律法规，当前 的债务规模和风险都得到了初步的控制。但是，在笔者参与的县级地方政府性债务管 理工作中来看，地方政府性债务还存在着较大的债务风险。 本文在研究国内外文献的基础上，以风险管理理论、公共责任受托理论和委托- 代理理论为依据，运用文献研究法、案例分析法、定性定量结合分析法，选取W县为 例，分析了县级地方政府性债务形成的原因，并以大量的基础数据为依托，深入分析 当地债务的规模以及存在的风险。论文的主要内容以及主要结果如下： 首先，在研究国内外相关文献及理论后，定性分析总结出了地方政府性债务形成 的原因是受到财政体制，政治体制的影响，促进地方经济的发展则是地方政府性债务 形成的催化剂。 其次，以W县大量的财务数据为基础，使用定量分析法来简要概况当前地方政府 性债务，以及预估可能存在的风险。通过对W县地方政府性债务规模、其地方政府性 债务概况分析、可能存在风险的预估使用定量分析法，进一步分析了当地的政府性债 务受到了城镇化因素、政治因素、经济因素的影响。尤其是当地融资平台承担了政府 融资职能，存在着大量的政府隐性债务，并以当地债务规模、偿债数据、债务管理等 方面分析得出W县债务规模过大、债务管理不规范、债务控制机制不健全、审计监督 缺失四个方面的债务风险。 最后，在对当地政府性债务存在的风险提出从事前规则、事中控制监督、事后管 2 理三方面进行风险控制对策。地方政府不仅要从政府层面对债务风险进行管理和控 制，尤其是要加强对地方融资平台存在的风险进行控制。 关键词：地方政府性债务；债务风险；控制 3 Abstract In order to promote the economic development of the region, the local government is trapped in the mismatching of financial power and administrative power of the local finance, which leads to a large gap in local finance and a rapid growth of local government debt.The results of 2013 national government debt audit show that the debt of local governments responsible for repayment has increased rapidly.It is undeniable that most of the local government debt funds are used in the local major infrastructure construction and people's livelihood projects, which plays an extremely important role in the local economic and social development. It not only improves the allocation pattern of resources and funds in the regional economy, promotes the local economic development, speeds up the pace of urban, transportation and other infrastructure construction, but also improves people's livelihood It promotes social harmony and stability.However, we should also be aware that local government debt is very easy to form debt risk, causing financial and financial risks, which should be highly concerned and prevented.One of the three major battles raised in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is to prevent and control financial risks.In order to prevent and control local government debt, the central government has issued a series of laws and regulations, and the current debt scale and risk have been preliminarily controlled.However, in the county-level local government debt management work that the author participated in, the local government debt still has great debt risk. Based on the study of domestic and foreign literature, this paper, based on the theory of risk management, the theory of public accountability and the theory of principal-agent, uses the methods of literature research, case analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and selects w County as an example to analyze the reasons for the formation of local government debt at county level, and based on a large number of basic data, deeply analyzes the scale of local debt And risks.The main contents and results are as follows: First of all, after studying the relevant literature and theory at home and abroad, the qualitative analysis summarizes that the reason of the formation of local government debt is influenced by the financial system and political system, and promoting the development of local economy is the catalyst of the formation of local government debt. Secondly, based on a large number of financial data of W County, this paper summarizes the current situation and risks of local government debt. Through the analysis 4 of the scale, source and investment direction of local government debt in W County, this paper further analyzes the influence of urbanization, political and economic factors on local government debt. Based on the analysis of local debt scale, debt repayment data, debt management and other aspects, the paper concludes that there are four aspects of debt risk in W County: excessive debt scale, nonstandard debt management, imperfect debt control mechanism, and lack of audit supervision. Finally, in the risk of local government debt, we put forward three aspects of risk control countermeasures: pre engagement rules, in-process control and supervision, and post event management. The local government should not only manage and control the debt risk from the government level, but also control the risk of the local financing platform. Keywords: Local government debt; Debt risks; Control 目录 1 目 录 摘要 ................................................ 1 Abstract .............................................. 3 1 绪论 ................................................ 1 1.1 选题背景 ................................................ 1 1.2 选题意义 ................................................ 2 1.2.1 理论意义.................................................... 2 1.2.2 实践意义.................................................... 2 1.3 研究目的与研究内容 ...................................... 2 1.3.1 研究目的.................................................... 3 1.3.2 研究内容.................................................... 3 1.4 研究方法与技术路线 ...................................... 3 1.4.1 研究方法.................................................... 3 1.4.2 研究路线.................................................... 4 2文献综述及相关理论基础 ............................... 5 2.1国内外文献综述 ........................................... 5 2.1.1 国外文献综述 ................................................ 5 2.1.2 国内文献综述 ................................................ 7 2.1.3 研究述评................................................... 11 2.2 相关理论基础 ........................................... 11 2.2.1 地方政府性债务和地方政府债务 ............................... 11 2.2.2 风险管理理论 ............................................... 11 2.2.3 公共受托责任理论 ........................................... 12 2.2.4 委托代理理论 ............................................... 12 3 W县地方政府性债务现状 .............................. 14 3.1 W县债务基本情况 ........................................ 14 3.1.1 W县整体状况 ............................................... 14 3.1.2 地方政府性债务近几年变化趋势 ............................... 16 3.1.3 地方政府性债务风险测度指标 ................................. 17 3.2 W县地方性债务形成原因 .................................. 19 3.3 W县地方政府性债务来源与用途 ............................ 20 重庆理工大学硕士学位论文 2 3.4 W县地方政府性债务未来偿债情况 .......................... 21 3.4.1 偿债期限................................................... 21 3.4.2 偿债资金来源 ............................................... 22 4 W县地方政府性债务的风险分析 ......