A高校体制改革伴随着时代的发展取得了长足的进步，其管理模式已成功转化为“政府实 施宏观管理，学校面向社会自主办学”的模式，从而获得了越来越多的独立和自主管理权力。 虽然A高校在获得资金筹集、经费使用等便利的同时，也存在明显的资金管理风险。受促进经 济增长、缓解就业压力等多方面因素影响，A高校办学规模持续扩大，资金不足与学校高速发 展之间的矛盾日益突出。依据高校财务预算管理的方式，单独的财政拨款方式已远远不能满足 A高校的财务管理需求，因此，在有限的资源配给下构建A高校预算绩效评价体系，已成为A 高校财务管理研究的重要课题。 本文借鉴国内外关于预算绩效、绩效评价等理论的研究成果，从绩效预算导向的预算绩效 评价视角观、范畴观、架构观与指标观，通过隶属度、测量度、相关性和鉴别力分析，采用灰 色关联度法实现评价指标的多重筛选，确立A高校预算绩效评价指标体系；综合运用层次分析 法和模糊综合评价法，确定各评价指标的权重和进行综合评价，建立起A高校预算绩效的综合 评价模型；结合A高校财务基本数据，应用该评价模型对A高校预算绩效进行案例分析，并根 据评价结果提出改进的建议。 本文研究发现，生均经费配置水平与教学经费投入程度成为制约预算编制绩效得分的主要 因素；预算收入到位程度较差、经费过支与少支现象成为影响预算执行绩效的主要因素；生均 培养支出偏低、自筹经费实现能力欠佳、人均校拨经费不足成为预算决算绩效较差的主要因素， 此外人力资源利用率也值得重视。 关键词：高等院校，预算绩效评价，灰色关联度法，层次分析法，模糊综合评价法 A高校预算绩效评价研究 ii ABSTRACT A university system reform has made great progress with the development of the times. Its management mode has been successfully transformed into the mode of "the government implements macro-management, the school faces the society to run schools independently", thus gaining more and more independent and self-management power. Although colleges and universities A have the convenience of raising funds and using funds, they also have obvious risk of fund management. Affected by many factors, such as promoting economic growth and easing employment pressure, the scale of A university has been expanding continuously, and the contradiction between insufficient funds and the high-speed development of the school has become increasingly prominent. According to the way of financial budget management in Colleges and universities, the single way of financial allocation can not meet the financial management needs of A colleges and universities. Therefore, it has become an important topic for A colleges and universities to construct budget performance evaluation system under the limited resources allocation. This thesis draws on the domestic and foreign research results on budget performance and performance evaluation, from the perspective of performance budgeting performance evaluation, category view, structure view and index view, through membership, measurement, correlation and discrimination analysis, multiple empirical selection of evaluation indicators is realized by using grey relational degree method, The analytic hierarchy process was used to empower each evaluation index, therefore, the budget performance evaluation index system of A university is established. Combined with the actual financial accounting data ofA university, the comprehensive budget management of A university is comprehensively evaluated by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and analyze the evaluation results and put forward Suggestions for improvement. It is found in this thesis that the average allocation level of students' funds and the investment level of teaching funds are the main factors restricting the performance score of budget preparation. Poor budget revenue, overexpenditure and underexpenditure are the main factors that affect budget performance. Meanwhile, the main factors of poor performance in final budget are low expenditure per student, poor ability of self-financing and insufficient per capita school allocation. In addition, the utilization rate of human resources is also worthy of attention. Keywords:colleges and universities, budget performance evaluation, grey correlation degree method, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 iii 目 录 第一章 绪论 .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 选题意义 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2.1 理论意义 ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2.2 现实意义 ........................................................................................................ 2 1.3 国内外研究综述 ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 国外研究概述 ................................................................................................ 2 1.3.2 国内研究概述 ................................................................................................ 4 1.3.3 文献述评 ........................................................................................................ 5 1.4 论文研究框架 .......................................................................................................... 5 1.4.1 研究内容 ........................................................................................................ 5 1.4.2 研究方法 ........................................................................................................ 6 1.5 可能的创新 .............................................................................................................. 7 第二章 绩效评价的理论基础 .............................................................................................. 8 2.1 预算绩效与绩效评价的概念 .................................................................................. 8 2.1.1 预算绩效 ........................................................................................................ 8 2.1.2 绩效评价 ........................................................................................................ 8 2.1.3 绩效评价的要素 ............................................................................................ 8 2.2 绩效评价相关理论 ................................................................................................ 10 2.2.1 委托—代理理论 .......................................................................................... 10 2.2.2 目标管理理论 .............................................................................................. 11 2.2.3 利益相关者理论 .......................................................................................... 11 2.2.4 投入产出理论 .............................................................................................. 11 2.3 预算绩效评价方法 ................................................................................................ 12 2.3.1 常用的绩效评价方法 .................................................................................. 12 2.3.2 评价方法的选择 .......................................................................................... 14 2.3.3 综合评价模型的选择 .................................................................................. 17 第三章 A高校预算绩效评价的现状分析 ........................................................................ 20 3.1 A高校概况 ............................................................................................................. 20 3.2 A高校预算管理的现状 ......................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 A高校预算管理 ........................................................................................... 20 A高校预算绩效评价研究 iv 3.2.2 A高校预算编制 ........................................................................................... 21 3.2.3 A高校预算执行 ....................