全球变暖日益加剧给世界各国带来巨大低碳挑战，建筑业由此面临越来越大的碳减 排压力。近年来建筑工业化发展进程加快，装配式技术应用成为重要变革，装配式技术 应用对建筑碳排放的影响作用成为探索建筑业低碳发展路径和前景的重要研究问题。 本文基于建筑工业化背景，以微观项目为主要视角，运用定量化的方法深入分析装 配式技术的应用对住宅建筑物化阶段碳排放的影响。首先，明确应用装配式技术是否对 住宅建筑物化阶段碳排放产生影响，本文重新刻画建筑项目全生命周期碳足迹，对比预 制装配与传统现浇两种建造方式下建筑物化阶段碳排放特征。其次，探讨预制水平变化 的情景下装配式建筑物化阶段碳排放如何变化，本文设置不同预制情景，在全生命周期 理论的基础上进一步模拟各预制水平下装配式建筑物化阶段碳排放量，分析其变化特 征。最后，研究确定的预制水平下，物化阶段供应链企业对装配式技术的认知协调能力 对建筑物化阶段碳排放的影响，本文依据邻近性理论引入技术邻近性概念，建立企业间 技术邻近性与建筑物化阶段碳排放的关系模型，对其影响关系进行量化分析。综合分析 了从装配式技术应用到装配式技术的应用水平，再到确定的技术水平下，供应链企业间 技术认知协调能力对建筑物化阶段碳排放的影响。 研究结果表明，装配式技术的应用一定程度上能够降低建筑碳排放，对建筑业低碳 发展具有积极影响，但技术限制的情况下，适当的预制水平带来更优的低碳效果。在确 定的预制水平下，供应链企业间的技术认知协调能力提升有利于促进建筑碳排放降低。 研究于建筑低碳化管理领域进一步拓展了全生命周期理论和邻近性理论的应用，为新型 工业化背景下探索低碳化建设路径提供了项目层面的数据支持和理论依据。. 关键词：建筑工业化，装配式建筑，碳排放，全生命周期，技术邻近性ii Abstract The increasing global warming has brought huge low-carbon challenges to countries around the world, and the construction industry is facing increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions. In recent years, the development of construction industrialization has accelerated, and the application of prefabricated technology is an important change. The effect of prefabricated technology on the carbon emissions of buildings has become an research issue in exploring the low-carbon path and prospects of the construction industry. Based on the background of building industrialization, this paper uses quantitative methods to analyze the impact of prefabricated technology on the carbon emissions of residential buildings in three stages from a perspective of project. Firstly, whether the application of prefabrication technology on the carbon emissions of residential buildings is clarified. In this paper, the carbon footprint of the whole life cycle of the construction projects is re-described, and the carbon emission characteristics of the prefabricated buildings with cast-in-place buildings are compared. Secondly, the changes of the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings under the scenario with different prefabricated levels are explored. In this article, various prefabricated scenarios are set and the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings at each prefabricated level are further simulated based on the full life cycle theory. Then, the changing characteristics of the carbon emissions in the different scenarios are analyzed. Finally, the impact of cognitive and coordination capabilities about prefabricated technology of companies in the supply chain during the construction stage on carbon emissions under the prefabrication level determined. In this study, the concept of technical proximity based on proximity theory is introduced to establish a model of the relationship between the technological proximity of enterprises and carbon emissions during the construction stage and the impact between them is quantitatively analyzed. The application of prefabricated technology, the level of prefabricated technology application, and under the determined technical level, the impact of the supply chain companies' technological cognition and coordination ability on the carbon emissions of the building stage are comprehensively analyzed.iii The results show that the application of prefabricated technology can reduce building carbon emissions to a certain extent, which has a positive impact on the low-carbon development of the construction industry. However, in the case of technical constraints, an appropriate level of prefabrication brings better low-carbon effects. Under the determined prefabrication level, the improvement of technical cognition and coordination among supply chain enterprises is conducive to promoting the reduction of building carbon emissions.This research further expands the application of full life cycle theory and proximity theory in the field of building low-carbon management, and provides project-level data support and theoretical basis for exploring low-carbon construction paths in the context of new industrialization. Key words: building industrialization, prefabrication, carbon emission, full life cycle, technical proximityiv 目 录 第一章 绪论............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景与意义......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景.......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义.......................................................................................................... 2 1.2 研究内容与框架......................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 研究内容.......................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 研究方法.......................................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 技术路线图...................................................................................................... 6 1.3 创新之处..................................................................................................................... 7 第二章 理论与研究综述........................................................................................................ 8 2.1 概念界定..................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 建筑碳排放...................................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 计算边界.......................................................................................................... 8 2.1.3 碳排放因子...................................................................................................... 8 2.1.4 建筑物化阶段碳排放...................................................................................... 8 2.2 理论基础..................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 全生命周期评价理论...................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 邻近性理论.................................................................................................... 10 2.3 国内外研究现状....................................................................................................... 12 2.3.1 建筑全生命周期碳排放相关研究................................................................ 12 2.3.2 装配式建筑碳排放相关研究........................................................................ 15 2.3.3 技术邻近性在企业合作中的应用相关研究................................................ 16 2.3.4 相关研究评述................................................................................................ 17 2.4 本章小结................................................................................................................... 17 第三章 研究方法与模型........................................................................................................ 19 3.1 建筑物化阶段碳排放核算模型............................................................................... 19 3.1.1 测算方法选择................................................................................................ 19v 3.1.2 建筑物化阶段碳排放量核算模型................................................................20 3.1.3 预制装配式建筑物化阶段碳排放模拟模型................................................25 3.2 技术邻近性计算模型................................................................................................28 3.3 技术邻近性与物化阶段碳排放影响关系模型.......................................................28 3.3.1 样本选择........................................................................................................28 3.3.2 变量定义........................................................................................................29 3.3.3 相关性检验....................................................................................................29 3.3.4 回归模型........................................................................................................30 3.4 数据来源...................................................................................................................30 3.5 本章小结....................................................................................................................31 第四章 装配式技术应用对建筑物化碳排放影响实证分析..............................................32 4.1 实证背景...................................................................................................................32 4.2 预制装配式建筑与传统现浇式建筑物化阶段碳排放对比分析...........................33 4.3 本章小结...................................................................................................................36 第五章 基于情景模拟的预制水平对建筑物化碳排放影响探讨......................................37 5.1 情景设置...................................................................................................................37 5.2 各预制情景下建筑物化阶段碳排放对比分析.......................................................38 5.3 本章小结...................................................................................................................41 第六章 供应链企业技术邻近性与建筑物化碳排放影响关系测度..................................42 6.1 建筑物化阶段碳排放与技术邻近性计算................................................................42 6.1.1 建筑物化阶段碳排放核算............................................................................42 6.1.2 技术邻近性计算............................................................................................43 6.2 技术邻近性与物化阶段碳排放影响关系分析........................................................46 6.2.1 技术邻近性与物化阶段碳排放相关性检验................................................46 6.2.2 技术邻近性与物化阶段碳排放关系模型与影响分析................................46 6.3 本章小结...................................................................................................................48 结论与展望..............................................................................................................................49。。。。。。以下内容略