I 基于DCF模型IXYS企业并购估值研究 摘要 伴随着国际经济体制的不断完善和国际资本市场的不断发展，企 业并购在世界范围内都十分普遍，并购估值的技巧与方法不断得到完 善，企业并购在世界范围内发生的频次也不断在增加，但仍是时常听 闻天价并购案例或者低价并购案例的出现。在并购估值发展至今，合 理的并购价格对专业的分析师来说便不难得出，但结果总是出人意料。 此种情况的发生总会损害并购方或是被购方的利益。作者为了明确 IXYS公司被并购时，并购对价是否存在不合理的情况，做了并购估 值方面的相关研究。 本文首先对并购估值所存在的基本理论进行了梳理，明确了企业 并购中常用的并购估值方法，并通过阅读文献的方式，充分了解了各 种不同的方法所适用的不同情况，为后续IXYS公司被并购案例的分 析做了前期准备。 接着，对IXYS公司被并购案例时的具体情况做了深入的剖析， 分析了主并购方Littlefuse公司基于经营协同方面、管理协同方面、 财务协同方面的原因向被并购方发出并购要约，又分析出IXYS公司 当时的经营状况并不乐观，从而选择接受Littlefuse公司的并购。并 且对Littlefuse公司并购IXYS公司后的经营绩效做了评价，分析发现 IXYS公司虽然是Littlefuse公司有史以来收购过价格最高的公司，但 摘要 II 对公司之后的经营发展，并没有起到一个显著的助力作用，反而降低 了并购后第一年的净资产收益率，与Littlefuse最初的期待大相径庭。 因此，本文根据IXYS公司所处的行业，决定采用DCF估值法 对其公司价值进行计算评估。以IXYS公司近5年的财务报表为基础 预测未来5年的财务数据；以标普500指数收益和美国20年期国债 利息为基础计算WACC；折现发现评估价格远小于Littlefuse公司所 给的7.5亿美元，并对估值结果做了敏感性分析，分析结果显示，7.5 亿美元的并购价格，在企业未来稳定发展的情形下，是难以得出这么 高的价格。 结合Littlefuse公司并购后的绩效评价与DCF估值法下的估值结 果，得出结论：IXYS公司的并购价格过高。 关键词：并购；经营绩效；估值 ABSTRACT III RESEARCHONMERGERANDACQUISITION VALUATIONOFIXYSBASEDONDCFMODEL ABSTRACT Alongwiththecontinuousimprovementoftheinternationaleconomicsystem andinternationaldevelopmentofcapitalmarkets,mergersandacquisitionsare pervasivethroughouttheworld,m&avaluationtechniquesandmethodsofconstantly improve,mergersandacquisitionsintheworldwidefrequencyhasbeenontherise, butitisoftenheardformergersandacquisitionscasesortheemergenceoflow-cost m&acases.Afterthedevelopmentofm&avaluation,itisnotdifficultforprofessional analyststogetareasonablem&aprice,buttheresultsarealwaysunexpected.This alwayshurtstheacquirerorthebuyer.Inordertoclarifywhetherthereisunreasonable mergerconsiderationwhenIXYSisacquired,theauthormakesaresearchonmerger valuation. Inthispaper,theexistingbasictheoriesofmergerandacquisitionvaluationwere firstlysortedout,andthecommonlyusedmergerandacquisitionvaluationmethods wereclarified.Byreadingliteratures,theauthorfullyunderstoodthedifferent situationsapplicabletovariousmethods,andmadepreliminarypreparationsforthe subsequentanalysisofmergerandacquisitioncasesofIXYS. ThenismergercasesatIXYScompanyspecificsituationtodoathorough analysis,analyzedthemainm&apartyLittlefusecompanybasedonoperating synergy,managementsynergy,financialsynergyintermsofanoffertobethecause ofmergerandacquisition,andanalyzetheIXYScompanyoperatingconditionsofthe timearenotoptimistic,andchoosetoacceptLittlefusecompanymergersand acquisitions.AndtheLittlefusecompanyafterm&aIXYScompanyoperating ABSTRACT IV performanceevaluation,analysisfoundthatalthoughIXYScompanyisLittlefuse companyacquiredapriceisthehighestever,butaftertheoperationanddevelopment, tothecompanydidn'thavetheaidofasignificanteffect,butdecreasedinthefirst yearafterthemergerofreturnonnetassets,differentfromLittlefuseinitial expectations. Therefore,basedontheindustryinwhichIXYSislocated,thispaperdecidedto usetheDCFvaluationmethodtocalculateandevaluatethevalueofthe company.BasedonthefinancialstatementsofIXYSinthepastfiveyears,the financialdataofthenextfiveyearsarepredicted.TheWACCiscalculatedonthe basisofthes&p500yieldandtheinterestrateonthe20-yearTreasurynote.Discount foundthattheappraisalpriceisfarlessthanthe$750millionofferedbyLittlefuse company,andthesensitivityanalysisofthevaluationresults,theanalysisresults showthatthe$750millionmergerprice,inthefuturestabledevelopmentofthe enterprise,isdifficulttogetsuchahighprice. CombinedwiththeperformanceevaluationafterthemergerofLittlefuse companyandthevaluationresultsundertheDCFvaluationmethod,theconclusionis drawnthatthemergerpriceofIXYScompanyistoohigh. GuofengJin SupervisedbyXiaokangZhao KEYWORDS：Mergersandacquisitions,Businessperformance,valuation 目录 V 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................................III 1绪论.............................................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景...............................................................................................................................1 1.2研究目的和意义...................................................................................................................1 1.2.1研究目的....................................................................................................................1 1.2.2研究意义....................................................................................................................2 1.3研究内容与方法...................................................................................................................2 1.3.1研究内容....................................................................................................................2 1.3.2研究方法....................................................................................................................3 2相关文献综述.............................................................................................................................5 2.1企业并购与估值...................................................................................................................5 2.1.1企业并购概念............................................................................................................5 2.1.2企业估值的概念........................................................................................................5 2.2企业估值模型.......................................................................................................................5 2.2.1绝对估值模型............................................................................................................5 2.2.2相对估值法..............................................................................................................10 2.2.3相关理论国内外研究成果......................................................................................11 3Littlefuse并购IXYS基本情况...............................................................................................16 3.1Littlefuse公司和IXYS公司简介......................................................................................16 3.1.1Littlefuse公司概况和业务介绍............................................................................16 3.1.2IXYS公司概况和业务介绍..................................................................................19 3.2Littlefuse并购IXYS公司的动因分析............................................................................20 3.2.1基于经营协同效应的动因.....................................................................................20 3.2.2基于管理协同效应的动因.....................................................................................20 3.2.3基于财务协同效应的动因.....................................................................................21 目录 VI 3.3Littlefuse并购IXYS过程................................................................................................21 3.3.1Littlefuse并购IXYS时间进程...............................................................................21 3.3.2Littlefuse并购IXYS的价格.....................................................