首页 > 资料专栏 > 论文 > 专题论文 > 其他论文 > MBA毕业论文_老地产开发适宜性评价及障碍因子诊断PDF

MBA毕业论文_老地产开发适宜性评价及障碍因子诊断PDF

xinzhix***
V 实名认证
内容提供者
资料大小:1057KB(压缩后)
文档格式:PDF
资料语言:中文版/英文版/日文版
解压密码:m448
更新时间:2021/11/7(发布于广东)

类型:金牌资料
积分:--
推荐:升级会员

   点此下载 ==>> 点击下载文档


文本描述
根据老龄化社会的国际定义,我国在二十世纪末就进入了老龄化社会,老年人 口数量持续增加。随着人口老龄化程度的加深和家庭结构的转变,传统的家庭养老 模式已不能满足老年人口的养老需求。由于经济的快速增长,越来越多的家庭愿意 购买社会养老服务,市场化将是解决养老问题的重要途径,老年人对养老住宅的需 求巨大。为了调动全社会参与到养老服务体系中来,国家出台了一系列鼓励养老服 务社会化的措施,养老地产这一特意为老龄人群开发设计的新式地产业态也因此应 运而生。但目前我国已存在的养老地产项目多数处于亏损状态,运营存在众多问题, 本论文基于现有问题,从养老地产的开发选址角度出发,对城市在养老地产开发初 期的适宜性进行评估,对影响城市养老地产开发适宜性的各个因素进行深入研究, 以判断该城市的养老地产开发适宜性。研究结果可为开发商进行养老地产进军城市 选择提供一定的参考,同时为政府和社会提供改善养老居住条件的建议,以解决我 国人口老龄化问题,缓解政府的养老压力。 论文建立了包括人口因子、生活舒适度、居民消费能力、房地产市场成熟度和 服务业发展程度五个维度的养老地产开发适宜性评价指标体系,并收集了2012-2016 年河北省11个地级市的指标数据,运用基于组合赋权法的改进突变级数模型对11 个城市的养老地产开发适宜性进行了评价。同时利用改进的障碍因子诊断模型对影 响各城市养老地产开发适宜性的主要障碍因子进行诊断。通过上述分析,得出主要 结论:河北省养老地产开发适宜水平在2012年到2016年间整体有所提升,但提升 幅度不大;根据评价结果,将11个城市划分为较高水平的养老地产重点发展城市、 中间水平的养老地产潜力发展城市和目前较低水平的发展欠佳城市三类;三类城市 养老地产开发适宜性的变化趋势不同,影响各城市养老地产开发适宜性水平的障碍 因素表现出明显的差异。 关键词:养老地产;适宜性评价;改进突变级数法;障碍因子模型;河北省 III Abstract According to the international definition of the aging society, China has entered a whole population aging society at the end of the 20th century, and the number of elderly people continues to rise. With the severe degree of population aging and the transformation of family structure, the traditional family supporting model can't meet the elderly population's needs. As a result of the rapid economic growth, more and more families are willing to pay for social pension services, marketization will be an important way to solve the problem of old age, and there is a huge demand for old-age homes in the elderly. Our country has launched a series of measures to encourage social endowment service, aiming to mobilize social forces to jointly participate in the pension service system. Thus, the pension real estate rises as a new form of real estate specially designed for elderly population at the moment. However, most of the existing projects of pension real estate in China are in the state of loss, there are many problems in operation. Based on these existing problems, from the perspective of site selection of pension real estate, this paper designs to evaluate the development suitability of the pension real estate in the early established decisions, also discusses and analyzes all aspects that affect the development of suitability thoroughly, so as to judge the city's suitability of pension real estate consequently. The research results can provide some references for developers to select cities for the pension real estate, and provide suggestions for the government and society to improve the living conditions of the elderly, so as to solve the problem of aging population in China and ease the pressure of the government on old age. This paper establishes the suitability evaluation indicator system of urban pension real estate development, including the five aspects of population factor, the comfort index of life, degree of residents' consumption level, the maturity of real estate market and development of service industry. The indicator data of 11 cities in Hebei province from 2012 to 2016 are collected to evaluate and sort the suitability of pension real estate development by using improved catastrophe progression model which based on combination weighting. At the same time, the paper uses the improved obstacle indicators model to diagnose the main obstacle indicators of the suitability of cities. Through the above analysis, the main conclusions include: The suitability evaluation of pension real estate development in Hebei province has increased from 2012 to 2016, but the increase is not significant; according to the results of the evaluation, 11 cities can be divided into three categories: the prioritized developmental cities, the potential cities and the IV unsuitable cities. The trend of the three categories and the obstacle indicators of developing suitability of pension real estate are obviously different. Key words: pension real estate; suitability evaluation; improved catastrophe progression model; obstacle indicators model; Hebei Province V 目 录 摘要 ..... I Abstract .... III 第一章 绪论 ....................... - 1 - 1.1 研究背景 ........................ - 1 - 1.2 研究目的与意义 ............ - 2 - 1.2.1 研究目的 ............. - 2 - 1.2.2 研究意义 ............. - 2 - 1.3 研究内容与方法 ............ - 3 - 1.3.1 研究内容 ............. - 3 - 1.3.2 研究方法 ............. - 4 - 1.4 技术路线 ........................ - 4 - 第二章 文献综述及相关理论 .......................... - 7 - 2.1 国内外研究现状 ............ - 7 - 2.1.1 关于养老模式的研究 ........................ - 7 - 2.1.2 关于养老地产需求的研究 ................ - 7 - 2.1.3 关于养老地产融资及运营的研究 .... - 8 - 2.1.4 关于养老地产开发适宜性的研究 .... - 9 - 2.1.5 研究现状评述 ... - 10 - 2.2 相关理论 ...................... - 11 - 2.2.1 相关概念界定 ... - 11 - 2.2.2 理论基础 ........... - 12 - 2.3 本章小结 ...................... - 14 - 第三章 养老地产开发适宜性评价指标体系构建 ....................... - 15 - 3.1 构建原则 ...................... - 15 - 3.1.1 科学性原则 ....... - 15 - 3.1.2 系统性原则 ....... - 15 - 3.1.3 以人为本原则 ... - 15 - 3.1.4 可操作性原则 ... - 15 - VI 3.2 构建方法 ...................... - 16 - 3.3 指标初选 ...................... - 16 - 3.4 指标统计 ...................... - 17 - 3.5 指标选择 ...................... - 19 - 3.5.1 人口因子指标的选择 ...................... - 19 - 3.5.2 生活舒适度指标的选择 .................. - 20 - 3.5.3 居民消费能力指标的选择 .............. - 21 - 3.5.4 房地产市场成熟度指标的选择 ...... - 21 - 3.5.5 服务业发展程度指标的选择 .......... - 22 - 3.6 指标体系构建 .............. - 23 - 3.7 本章小结 ...................... - 23 - 第四章 养老地产开发适宜性评价模型研究 - 25 - 4.1 突变级数法适用性分析 ............................. - 25 - 4.2 突变级数法基本原理 .. - 25 - 4.2.1 突变归一化公式推导 ...................... - 25 - 4.2.2 控制变量重要程度排序 .................. - 27 - 4.2.3 突变决策选择原则 .......................... - 27 - 4.3 基于组合赋权的改进突变级数法设计 ..... - 28 - 4.3.1 基于熵权法的指标权重确定 .......... - 28 - 4.3.2 基于变异系数法的指标权重确定 .. - 29 - 4.3.3 指标组合权重确定 .......................... - 29 - 4.4 养老地产开发适宜性改进突变级数模型 . - 30 - 4.4.1 养老地产开发适宜性评价流程 ...... - 30 - 4.4.2 评价模型实施步骤 .......................... - 30 - 4.5 养老地产开发适宜性障碍因子诊断 ......... - 32 - 4.6 本章小结 ...................... - 32 - 第五章 河北省养老地产开发适宜性实证分析 ........................... - 33 - 5.1 研究区域概况 .............. - 33 - 5.1.1 自然地理概况 ... - 33 - 5.1.2 社会经济水平概况 .......................... - 34 - 5.1.3 人口老龄化现状 .............................. - 34 - VII 5.2 实证分析 ...................... - 35 - 5.2.1 数据来源及处理 .............................. - 35 - 5.2.2 二级量化指标分析 .......................... - 36 - 5.2.3 一级描述指标值导出 ...................... - 38 - 5.2.4 一级描述指标分析 .......................... - 40 - 5.2.5 综合评价指数导出 .......................... - 41 - 5.3 评价结果分析 .............. - 41 - 5.3.1 河北省整体分析 .............................. - 41 - 5.3.2 各城市比较分析 .............................. - 43 - 5.4 障碍因子诊断及提升策略分析 ................. - 45 - 5.5 促进养老地产进一步发展的对策 ............. - 48 - 5.6 本章小结 ...................... - 49 - 结 论 .................