I 摘要 在“大众旅游”的时代背景下，旅游业发展态势迅猛，带来的经济效益显著， 但随着旅游规模逐步扩大，破坏了旅游生态系统平衡，且旅游资源的盲目开发和 利用对旅游生态系统造成诸多影响不容忽视，旅游生态系统健康成为我国迫切需 要关注的问题。我国目前的旅游生态系统健康如何？呈现怎样的时空分布特征？ 动态变化速度和转移概率是怎样的？影响旅游生态系统健康的因素有哪些？这一 系列问题都是促进旅游生态系统健康亟待解决的重要问题。 首先，本文在DPSIR模型的基础上建立中国旅游生态系统健康评价指标体系； 其次，利用熵权法和线性加权法对中国大陆30个省市（西藏除外）的旅游生态系 统健康进行测算，并运用GIS空间分析、动态度模型和马尔可夫链分析其时空变化 特征；最后采用面板模型对其影响因素进行探析，得出以下结论： （1）2004-2017年中国旅游生态系统健康指数呈逐步上升的发展态势。整体 呈东部地区旅游生态系统健康指数最高，中部地区次之，西部地区最低的“梯度 化”特征。驱动力子系统、状态子系统、影响子系统以及响应子系统的健康指数 整体上均表现为逐步提升的态势，压力子系统的健康指数呈下降的趋势。研究期 内中国旅游生态系统健康等级逐步提升，旅游生态系统的健康状况中间类型集中， 整体表现为“中间多，两头少的纺锤体”特征，且旅游生态系统健康状况较好的 省市集中在沿海地区，呈现出“东高西低”的分布格局。（2）从等级变化速度看， 中国旅游生态系统健康的等级数量在2004-2017年期间随着等级的提高变化速度 逐渐增大。较高等级的旅游生态系统健康类型的变化不明显，研究期内中国旅游 生态系统的健康状况有逐步好转的趋势，但较为健康的省市数量依然较少。旅游 生态系统健康等级转移概率显示：2004-2017年旅游生态系统健康等级类型整体发 生良性转移的概率较低，在整个研究期内旅游生态系统健康等级均未出现跳跃式 的转移，且旅游生态系统健康状况越好，转移的概率越低。（3）从旅游生态系统 健康的影响因素看，劳动力投入力度、科技发展水平、产业结构、旅游交通水平 和政府调控能力对中国整体以及三大区域的影响存在差异。 旅游生态系统健康是实现旅游长期可持续发展的必要条件，大众的旅游需求 和旅游意愿日益加强，旅游生态系统的环境压力也进一步加大，旅游生态系统健 康得到保障，才能确保旅游业健康持续发展。从宏观层面出发，分析我国旅游生 态系统健康的时空变化特征及其影响因素，能够有效掌握我国旅游生态系统健康 摘要 II 状况，使各级政府在享受旅游发展带来巨大经济收益的同时也关注到旅游生态系 统面临的健康问题，提高对生态环保的重视度，做出有利于旅游业健康发展的正 确决策，促进旅游可持续发展。 关键词：旅游生态系统健康;综合评价;时空变化;影响因素 Abstract III Abstract Under the background of "mass tourism", tourism industry is developing rapidly, which brings remarkable economic benefits. However, with the gradual expansion of tourism scale, the balance of tourism ecosystem has been destroyed, and the blind development and utilization of tourism resources have a lot of impacts on tourism ecosystem, which can’t be ignored. The health of tourism ecosystem has become an urgent problem in China. What is the health of China's current tourism ecosystem? What are the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics? What is the rate of dynamic change and transfer probability? What are the factors that affect the health of tourism ecosystem? This series of problems are important to promote the health of tourism ecosystem. First of all, based on the DPSIR model, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of China's tourism ecosystem health; secondly, calculates the tourism ecosystem health of 30 provinces and cities in China (except Tibet) by using entropy weight method and linear weight method, and analyzes its spatiotemporal change characteristics by using GIS spatial analysis, dynamic degree model and Markov chain; finally, uses panel model to analyze its impact factors Element analysis. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) From 2004 to 2017, the health index of China's tourism ecosystem has been gradually increasing. As a whole, the health index of tourism ecosystem in the eastern region is the highest, followed by that in the central region, and the lowest in the western region, which is characterized by "gradientization". The health indexes of driving force subsystem, state subsystem, influence subsystem and response subsystem are all gradually increasing, while the health indexes of pressure subsystem are decreasing. During the research period, the health level of China's tourism ecosystem has been gradually improved, and the health status of the tourism ecosystem is concentrated in the middle type, which is characterized by "more in the middle and less in the two ends". The provinces and cities with better health status of the tourism ecosystem are concentrated in the coastal areas, showing a distribution pattern of "higher in the East and lower in the west". (2) From the perspective of the change Abstract IV speed of the level, the number of the level of tourism ecosystem health in China gradually increased with the increase of the level in 2004-2017. The change of health type of higher level tourism ecosystem is not obvious. During the research period, the health status of China's tourism ecosystem is gradually improving, but the number of healthier provinces and cities is still small. The transfer probability of tourism ecosystem health level shows that: the probability of benign transfer of tourism ecosystem health level type is low in 2004-2017, and there is no jump transfer of tourism ecosystem health level in the whole research period, and the better the health status of tourism ecosystem, the lower the probability of transfer. (3) From the perspective of the influencing factors of tourism ecosystem health, there are differences in the impact of labor input, scientific and technological development level, industrial structure, tourism transportation level and government regulation ability on China and the three regions. The health of tourism ecosystem is the necessary condition to realize the long-term sustainable development of tourism. The public's tourism demand and willingness are increasingly strengthened, the environmental pressure of tourism ecosystem is further increased, and the health of tourism ecosystem is guaranteed, so as to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of tourism industry. From the macro level, analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of tourism ecosystem health and its influencing factors can effectively grasp the health status of China's tourism ecosystem, make governments at all levels pay attention to the health problems faced by the tourism ecosystem while enjoying the huge economic benefits brought by tourism development, improve the importance of ecological environment protection, make the right decision for the healthy development of tourism, so as to promote the sustainable development of tourism. Key Words: tourism ecosystem health; comprehensive evaluation; spatial and temporal variation; influencing factors 目 录 V 目 录 第1章 绪论 ........................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景 .................................................... 1 1.2 研究目的与意义 .............................................. 2 1.2.1 研究目的 .............................................. 2 1.2.2 研究意义 .............................................. 2 1.3 国内外研究进展 .............................................. 3 1.3.1 生态系统健康的研究 .................................... 3 1.3.2 旅游生态系统健康的研究 ................................ 4 1.3.3 研究述评 .............................................. 6 第2章 理论基础与方法 .............................................. 8 2.1 旅游生态系统的相关概念及理论 ................................ 8 2.1.1 旅游生态系统的涵义 .................................... 8 2.1.2 旅游生态系统健康的概念 ................................ 8 2.1.3 系统理论 .............................................. 8 2.1.4 可持续发展理论 ........................................ 8 2.2 研究内容 .................................................... 9 2.3 研究方法 .................................................... 9 2.4 技术路线图 ................................................. 11 第3章 中国旅游生态系统健康的综合评价与分析 ..................