I 摘要 现代项目管理最主要有两大体系 PMBOK 与 PRINCE2。PMBOK 体系从静态 的角度看项目，能够很好的把握细节；而 PRINCE2 则从动态的角度看项目，能够 很好的掌控全局。相比 PMBOK，研究 PRINCE2 的课题相对很少，如何在实际的 复杂项目中应用 PRINCE2 体系成为一个值得深入探讨与实践的课题。 以数据开发分析为主的传统 BI 以及大数据项目通常项目周期较长，数据方面 的需求变化较大，对于第三方系统的依赖性较高，项目各方的参与沟通要求更高 更复杂，对于项目管理是个考验。本文以临沂人民医院的数据平台项目为研究对 象，通过风险管理全流程的重构分析与实践，总结出 PRINCE2 体系在复杂项目风 险管理应用中的特点、优势以及经验。 临沂人民医院数据平台项目总体分为三个大的阶段，总计周期为 1 年半，涉 及 8 家第三方公司的 9 个系统对接，数据质量要求高，这些特点导致了项目存在 五大问题：数据来源业务系统变化对项目产出的连锁影响、沟通协调难度大，各 方具体职责不明确、计划不清晰、具有数据平台经验的技术人员资源可用时间少。 现有的微软基于 PMBOK 的瀑布式项目管理体系无法深入应对这些复杂的挑战， 而 PRINCE2 体系站在阶段的高度提供管理方法并定义了匹配的 7 大管理过程，在 沟通上强调通过组织结构的方法来完成，因此将 PRINCE2 体系应用到整体项目管 理上能够更加有效的解决项目的问题。项目复杂度带来了风险管理工作的挑战， 要求项目的风险管理过程必须按照 PRINCE2 的体系进行重构，夯实风险管理的基 础，同时选择合适的科学的风险工具以便加强风险评估的有效性。 文中在分析了项目风险管理的不足之处后，提出从风险管理流程、风险管理 的角色与职责，风险分解结构、风险评估方法四个方面进行重构。重新设计了基 于 PRINCE2 分阶段管理的风险管理流程，包含项目阶段启动前、阶段进行中、阶 段结束的三个管理流程，按照阶段动态定义的四层风险管理组织架构、角色与职 责，基于数据平台特点分类的风险分解结构与细分，以及介绍了如何通过 AHP 层 次分析法来科学的评估风险影响使其成为风险例外管理的判断基准。 本文通过对于临沂人民医院项目风险管理的分析与实践，总结出 PRINCE2 体 系在数据平台项目的风险管理的五大应用特点。同时，本文也总结比较了 PMBOK 与 PRINCE2 在项目风险管理实践方面的异同。经过 PRINCE2 体系重构后的项目 风险管理流程，结合科学的 AHP 风险评估方法，使得整个项目风险管理工作更加 符合数据平台项目的特点，加强了风险管理的受控度与专业度，总体重大及高风摘要 II 险数量减少显著，对于其他类似的数据平台项目或者是采用 PRINCE2 体系管理的 项目具有一定的借鉴意义。 关键词：风险管理，PRINCE2，AHP，数据平台项目ABSTRACT III ABSTRACT Modern project management mainly has two systems:PMBOK and PRINCE2. PMBOK see projects from a static point of view so as to master details, while PRINCE2 employs a dynamic point of view as a way to control the overall situation. Compare with PMBOK, there’s few researches against PRINCE2, so it would be valuable discussions to advance the application of PRINCE2 in complex projects. The cycle of big data projects and traditional BI which focuses on data development is relatively longer, data demand changes bigger, dependence on the third-party system is stronger and the demand for all-party communication is higher and more complex. Therefore, it is a challenge to manage those projects. This paper focus on the data platform project of Linyi people's hospital, from the risk management process reconstruction and practice, concludes the characteristics, advantages and experieces in which complex projects risk management adopted by PRINCE2. The data platform project of Linyi People’s hospital has three major phases and with its duration of 1 and half years. It involves nine systems from eight third party companies and has high standard on quality of data. Those characters bring to five project issues: data source systems have chain reaction on the project output, difficulities on the project communication and coordination, ambiguous roles and responsilities, vague project plan, available time of veteran technique staff with data platform project experiences is less. Analysis shows the current Microsoft waterfall project management framework based on PMBOK is not able to handle these challenges while PRINCE2 can more effectively resolve these issues because it offers management methods from the stage perspective in cooperate with 7 management process and it emphasizes to achieve the comminucation through organization structure. The complexity of the project brings to the chanllege of risk management work, it requires the reconstruction of project risk management process in accordance with PRINCE2 so that the foundation of risk management work can be enhanced. Moreover, appropriate and scientific risk tools should be well selected to help the effectiveness of risk evaluation. The paper analyzes the weakness of the project risk management, proposed to reconstruct the risk management from risk management process, risk management rolesABSTRACT IV and responsibilities, risk breakdown structure, risk evaluation method these four aspects. The risk management processes are redesigned to three specific process under the PRINCE2 phase-based management including phase initiation, phase ongoing, phase end. The risk management organization structure with roles and responsibilites is dynamicly redefined to fours layers with change of phases. The risk breakdown structure is refined based on the character of data platform project. The paper also expounds how to use the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) to evaluate the risk as the result of risk exception management. The paper summarizes five characteristics of the data platform projects risk management based on PRINCE2. Meanwhile, the paper compares the similarities and differences of the PMBOK and PRINCE2 in risk management practice. After the reconstruction of risk management process based on PRINCE2, combined with AHP risk evaluation method, the whole project risk management work is more adapt for the data platform projects. It enhanced the control and professionalism of the risk management with result of significantly reduction in high risk quantity, and somehow can be reference to similar data platform projects or PRINCE2 managed projects. Keywords: Risk Management, PRINCE2, AHP, Data Platform Project目 录 V 目 录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究目的............................................................................................................ 2 1.3 研究思路............................................................................................................ 2 第二章 理论基础............................................................................................................ 5 2.1 PMBOK 与 PRINCE2 项目管理理论介绍....................................................... 5 2.1.1 PMBOK 简介 .......................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 PRINCE2 框架简介................................................................................ 6 2.1.3 PRINCE2 四层项目管理组织结构........................................................ 9 2.1.4 PRINCE2 国内研究现状...................................................................... 10 2.1.5 PMBOK 与 PRINCE2 理论比较...........................................................11 2.2 PMBOK 与 PRINCE2 下的风险管理介绍..................................................... 13 2.2.1 风险管理内容 ...................................................................................... 13 2.2.2 PRINCE2 与 PMBOK 在风险管理方面的比较.................................. 15 2.3 本章小结.......................................................................................................... 17 第三章 临沂人民医院数据平台项目介绍及面临的问题.......................................... 18 3.1 临沂人民医院简介.......................................................................................... 18 3.2 临沂人民医院数据平台项目简述.................................................................. 18 3.2.1 项目背景 .............................................................................................. 18 3.2.2 项目目标 .............................................................................................. 18 3.2.3 项目内容与阶段计划 .......................................................................... 19 3.2.4 项目面临的问题及应用 PRINCE2 解决的思路................................ 24 3.3 项目风险管理的问题及解决思路.................................................................. 26 3.3.1 项目风险管理工作的不足 .................................................................. 26 3.3.2 应用 PRINCE2 理论重构项目风险管理体系的思路........................ 27 3.4 本章小结.......................................................................................................... 33 第四章 基于 PRINCE2 体系的规划风险管理与风险识别........................................ 34 4.1 规划风险管理.................................................................................................. 34 4.1.1 风险管理流程 ...................................................................................... 34 4.1.2 角色与职责 .......................................................................................... 36目 录 VI 4.1.3 风险分解结构定义 .............................................................................. 38 4.1.4 风险概率与影响定义 .......................................................................... 42 4.2 风险识别.......................................................................................................... 44 4.2.1 风险分解结构细分 .............................................................................. 45 4.2.2 风险登记表 .......................................................................................... 49 4.3 本章小结.......................................................................................................... 54 第五章 基于 PRINCE2 体系的项目风险评估与应对................................................ 56 5.1 风险评估.......................................................................................................... 56 5.1.1 AHP 评估方法 ...................................................................................... 56 5.1.2 项目各阶段 AHP 评估 ........................................................................ 59 5.2 风险应对与风险实施效果.............................................................................. 65 5.2.1 项目风险应对 ...................................................................................... 65 5.2.2 项目风险实施效果 .............................................................................. 67 5.3 本章小结.......................................................................................................... 69 第六章 PRINCE2 体系下临沂人民医院项目风险管理总结..................................... 70 6.1 应用 PRINCE2 体系重构项目风险管理体系的经验实践总结 ................... 70 6.2 应用 PRINCE2 体系进行风险管理的特点与优势 ....................................... 72 6.3 本章小结.......................................................................................................... 75 第七章 结论.................................................................................................................. 76 致 谢............................................................................................................................ 78。。。。。。以下内容略