I 摘要 为帮助S建筑安装公司建立全面风险管理体系，提升抗风险能力，降低承包项目 的不确定性风险损失，本研究基于全面风险管理理论，从建筑 安装企业普遍存在的战 略、财务、市场、施工、法律风险角度，对S建筑安装公司承包项目风险进行了识别、 评价与应对研究，研究内容、方法和结论阐述如下： 首先，分析S建 筑安装公司风险管理现状。采用专家访谈法，从战略管理、财务 管理、市场追踪、施工管理、法务管理五个方面，描述了S公司建筑安装项目风险管 控现状。分析发现，公司存在 的问题包括：经营战略单一、战略环境分析不足；预算 管理不善、流动资金不足、垫资压力巨大；采购物资质量甄别不清、询价不到位、供 货商单一；施工管理不足，如材料管 理等；合同管理、劳务外包和采购过程中存在法 律纠纷等。 其次，识别S建筑安装公司承包项目风险因素。采用访谈法、文献回顾法和头脑 风暴法获取S建筑安装公司承包项目初 始风险清单，向各领域专家发放调查问卷，验 证清单的有效性。统计结果显示，50%以上的专家对27项二级风险因素给予了“同 意”意见，专家组对初始风险清单具有较高的认可 度。 再次，评价S建筑安装公司承包项目风险。主要采用了层次分析法和三角模糊数 法，研究内容包括：构建S公司项目风险评价指标体系、解释指标内涵；确定风险评 价标准与 评价方法；指标权重和风险等级评价过程；风险评价结果分析。评价结果显 示，S建筑安装公司承包项目整体风险属于中度水平，其中，战略风险权重和风险等 级最高，战略风险 和财务风险属于高度风险，需要重点控制，施工风险等其他3种风 险属于中度风险，视为一般控制点。 最后，提出S建筑安装公司承包项目风险应对方式和策略。建立风险应对方 式选 择模型，采用专家打分法，确定风险管理优先度值后，结合风险等级结果，选择出了 27项风险因素的应对方式，针对关键风险和重要风险控制点提出了具体的应对策略， 如 健全公司全面风险管理体系，实施多元化战略，建立意外损失基金，购买人身保险 等措施。 关键词：建筑安装承包项目风险管理 Abstract II Abstract InordertohelpSconstructionandinstallationcompanytoestablishacomprehensive riskmanagementsystem,enhancetheabilitytoresistrisksandreducetheuncertainrisk lossofcontractedprojects,thisstudy,basedonthecomprehensiveriskmanagementtheory, identifies,evaluatesanddealswiththerisksofcontractedprojectsofSconstructionand installationcompanyfromtheperspectivesofstrategic,financial,market,constructionand legalriskscommonlyexistinginconstructionandinstallationenterprises.Theresearch contents,methodsandconclusionsaredescribedasfollows. Firstofall,analyzetheriskmanagementstatusofSconstructionandinstallation Company.ThispaperdescribesthecurrentsituationofriskmanagementandcontrolinS Company'sconstructionandinstallationprojectsfromfiveaspectsofstrategic management,financialmanagement,markettracking,constructionmanagementandlegal managementbymeansofseniormanagementinterviews.Theanalysisfoundthatthe existingproblemsofthecompanyinclude:singlemanagementstrategyandinsufficient analysisofstrategicenvironment;poorbudgetmanagement,insufficientworkingcapital, andgreatpressuretoadvancefunds;thequalityofpurchasedmaterialsisnotclearly identified,inquiryisnotinplace,andsuppliersaresingle.Constructionmanagementis insufficient,suchasmaterialmanagement,etc.Therearelegaldisputesinthecontract management,laboroutsourcingandprocurementprocess. Secondly,identifytheriskfactorsofSconstructionandinstallationcompany's contractedprojects.TheinitialrisklistofSconstructionandinstallationcompany's contractedprojectswasobtainedbyinterview,literaturereviewandbrainstormingmethods, questionnaireswereissuedtoexpertsinvariousfieldstoverifytheeffectivenessofthelist. Thestatisticalresultsshowthatmorethan50% oftheexpertshave"agreed"with27 secondaryriskfactors,andtheexpertgrouphasahighdegreeofapprovalfortheinitial risklist. Thirdly,evaluatetherisksofSconstructionandinstallationcompany'scontracted projects.Itmainlyadoptsanalytichierarchyprocessandtriangularfuzzynumbermethod. Theresearchcontentsinclude:constructingtheprojectriskevaluationfactorsystemofS companyandexplainingtheconnotationofthefactor;determinetheriskevaluation criteriaandmethods;factorweightandriskratingevaluationprocess;analysisofrisk Abstract III assessmentresults.TheevaluationresultsshowthattheoverallrisksofSconstructionand installationcompany'scontractedprojectsaremoderate,ofwhichthestrategicriskshave thehighestweightandrisklevel,thestrategicrisksandfinancialrisksarehighrisks, whichneedtobecontrolledmainly,andtheotherthreeriskssuchasconstructionrisksare moderaterisks,whichareregardedasgeneralcontrolpoints. Finally,thepaperputsforwardtheriskresponsemethodsandstrategiesofS constructionandinstallationCompany.Afterestablishingariskresponsemodeselection model,adoptingexpertscoringmethod,determiningthepriorityvalueofriskmanagement, andcombiningwiththeriskgraderesults,27riskfactorsareselectedasresponsemodes, andspecificresponsestrategiesareproposedforkeyrisksandimportantriskcontrolpoints, suchasperfectingthecompany'scomprehensiveriskmanagementsystem,implementing diversifiedstrategies,establishingaccidentlossfunds,purchasingpersonalinsuranceand othermeasures. Keywords:ConstructionandinstallationContractprojectRiskmanagement 目录 IV 目录 摘 要....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................II 第1章绪 论....................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景和意 义......................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背 景........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意 义........................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究现 状.......................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现 状................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现 状................................................................................................4 1.2.3文献评 价........................................................................................................7 1.3研究方 法..................................................................................................................8 1.4研究思路和内 容......................................................................................................9 1.4.1研究思 路........................................................................................................9 1.4.2主要研究内 容..............................................................................................10 1.5技术路线 图............................................................................................................10 1.6主要创新 点............................................................................................................11 第2章基础理论与分析方 法..........................................................................................12 2.1概念界 定.................................................................................................................12 2.1.1承包项目风 险...............................................................................................12 2.1.2承包项目风险管 理.......................................................................................12 2.1.3承包项目风险的主要类 型...........................................................................12 2.2理论基 础.................................................................................................................13 2.2.1项目风险管理理 论.......................................................................................13 2.2.2项目风险的识别与应 对...............................................................................14 2.3分析方 法..................