自从我国于 1999 年步入老龄化社会，人口老龄化凸显出老龄人口规模大、老龄化增速 快、高龄化趋势明显的特点。截止 2018 年末，我国 65 岁及 以上的老年人口已达到总人口 的 11.9%，已远远超过国际标准的 7%；而且我国老龄人口正以年均 3.3%的高增速增加，据 世界卫生组织预测，未来我国的人口老龄化趋势将更加 严重，到 2050 年时，我国超过 60 岁的老年人口数量将达到总人口的 35%，从而跃居成为世界老龄化最严重的国家；此外我 国的高龄化态势也很显著，据预测，到 2050 年，80 岁以上老年人口（含 80 岁）将占 60 岁以上老年人口（含 60 岁）的 22.36%。在我国人口老龄化日趋严峻的形势下，伴随着居 民收入水平和生活质量的提高，老年人对养老的 理念也已发生了潜移默化的转变，传统的 居家养老、社区养老和机构养老已不能完全满足老年人所需，多样化的养老需求日益增长。 面临我国人口老龄化的不断加剧，多样化养 老需求的增加，如何更好的解决老年人的养老 问题受到国家的高度重视，并上升成为国家战略。国家先后出台了一系列政策法规，强调 要加快发展健康养老服务业，并结合养老 服务业大力发展老年旅游业，不断提升养老服务 品质和养老服务的产品供给，从而释放更大的养老消费需求、提升养老消费；同时引导社 会资本参与养老产业，并在投融资、土 地供应、税收优惠等方面给予一定的政策倾斜。 随着老年旅游业的兴起和老龄人对高品质养老生活的追求，旅游养老吸引了房地产开 发企业的关注，由此形成了“养老+旅游+房 地产”三种产业的融合，即旅游养老地产，做 为细分的“候鸟式”旅游养老地产也孕育而生。素有“候鸟天堂”之称的海南凭据得天独 厚的自然、气候环境优势，吸引了很多“ 候鸟式”养老的老龄人，面对巨大的养老需求， 引起一些投资企业的关注，迅速在海南投资养老产业，产品进入市场后受到了很多“候鸟” 老龄人的青睐。在理论研究滞后于实 践的情况下，海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产摸索前行， 虽取得了一定的发展，但在融资、开发、运营等方面还面临着较多挑战。 本文以海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产开发在融资 、开发、运营三方面的发展模式及风 险应对策略为研究对象，通过运用文献研究法、对比研究法、案例分析法和 SWOT 分析法， 借鉴国外养老地产发展经验，总结国内养老地产 的发展轨迹与现状，通过梳理海南旅游养 老地产的发展历程，研究海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产发展的有利条件、必要性、发展现 状以及存在的问题，进而就海南主要的嵌入式 、复合式两种“候鸟式”旅游养老地产产品 类型，引用案例并分别从融资模式、开发模式及运营模式三个维度剖析，探究适合海南“候 鸟式”旅游养老地产的开发模式，并对项 目实施过程中的内外部环境因素进行梳理，应用 SWOT 分析法对海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产的开发风险进行分析，找出应对策略，最终 提出海南发展“候鸟式”旅游养老地产的 建议和对策。政府层面可以设立海南旅游养老产 业公司，从产业规划、发展政策的制定及相关扶持、监管措施细则的出台，到融资渠道的协调、医疗护理资源的整体布局和相关人 才引进培养机制措施的落实，以及鼓励引导产业 相关行业积极参与旅游养老产业，从而构建海南“候鸟式”旅游养老产业平台；企业层面 可以从积极打造项目品牌效应、创新“ 候鸟式”旅游养老地产的发展模式、提高产品与服 务质量等方面发挥市场导向作用。 本文的创新之处，首先在于系统分析总结了国外养老地产值得借鉴的先进发展经验， 以此为 研究基础，结合我国实际与海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产发展情况，围绕“候鸟式” 旅游养老地产开发中的融资、开发、运营管理所组成闭环的各环节提出针对性意见建议， 作 为解决“候鸟式”旅游养老地产融资难、开发风险高、运营盈利周期长等瓶颈问题的依 据。 关键词：养老地产；海南；“候鸟式”旅游养老地产；发展模式；开发风险ABSTRACT Since China entered the population ageing in 1999, the population ageing has highlighted the characteristics of a large aging population, rapid aging growth and a clear trend of aging. By the end of 2018, China's elderly population aged 65 and over had reached 11.9 percent of the total population, far exceeding the international standard of 7 percent. Moreover, China's elderly population is increasing at a high rate of 3.3 percent per year, according to the World Health Organization's projections, in the future, the population ageing trend will be more serious, by 2050, the number of the elderly population over 60 years old will reach 35% of the total population, thus becoming the most aging country in the world; In addition, China's aging trend is also very significant, according to projections, by 2050,80-year-old population (including 80 years old) will account for 60-year-old population (including 60 years old) of 22.36% . Under the increasingly severe situation of the population ageing in our country, with the improvement of the income level and the quality of life of the residents, the concept of providing for the aged has also undergone a subtle change, the traditional home-based, community-based and institutional care for the aged can not fully meet the needs of the elderly, and the diversified needs for the elderly are increasing. In the face of the continuous intensification of the population ageing in China and the increasing demand for diversified old-age care, how to better solve the problem of old-age care for the elderly has been highly valued by the state and has become a national strategy. The State has promulgated a series of policies and regulations, emphasizing the need to speed up the development of healthy old-age care service industry, and to vigorously develop the old-age tourism industry in combination with the old-age care service industry, and constantly improve the quality of old-age care service and the supply of old-age care service products, meanwhile, social capital should be guided to participate in the pension industry, and some policies should be given in the aspects of investment and financing, land supply, tax preference, etc. . With the rise of old-age tourism and the elderly's pursuit of high-quality old-age support, tourism old-age support has attracted the attention of real estate development enterprises, thus forming the integration of "old-age support + tourism + real estate" three industries, namely, tourism old-age support real estate, as a subdivision of the "migratory bird-like" tourism and old-age real estate also gestated. Known as "Migratory Bird Paradise" , Hainan, with its unique advantages in natural and climatic environment, has attracted a lot of "migratory bird-like" elderly people. In the face of huge demand for old-age care, it has attracted the attention of someinvestment enterprises, quickly in Hainan investment pension industry, products into the market by a lot of "migratory birds" of the elderly favor. With the theoretical research lagging behind the practice, Hainan's "migratory bird-style" tourism for the aged has made some progress, but it still faces many challenges in the aspects of financing, development and operation. This paper takes the development mode and risk response strategy of Hainan "migratory bird" tourism elderly care real estate development in financing, development and operation as the research object, summarizes the development track and current situation of domestic elderly care real estate by using literature research, comparative research, case analysis and SWOT analysis, drawing on the experience of overseas elderly care real estate development, and combing Hainan tourism elderly care real estate development This paper studies the advantages, necessity, current situation and existing problems of the development of Hainan's "migratory bird type" tourism elderly care real estate, and then analyzes the two main types of "migratory bird type" tourism elderly care real estate products in Hainan from three dimensions of financing mode, development mode and operation mode by citing cases and analyzing them from three dimensions of financing mode, development mode and operation mode The development mode of "bird type" tourism elderly care real estate, and the internal and external environmental factors in the implementation process of the project are combed. The SWOT analysis method is used to analyze the development risk of Hainan "bird type" tourism elderly care real estate, find out the countermeasures, and finally put forward the suggestions and Countermeasures for the development of Hainan "bird type" tourism elderly care real estate. At the government level, Hainan tourism pension industry company can be set up, from the formulation of industrial planning, development policy, relevant support and regulatory measures, to the coordination of financing channels, the overall layout of medical and nursing resources and the implementation of relevant personnel introduction and training mechanism measures, as well as to encourage and guide the relevant industries to actively participate in the tourism pension industry, so as to build a "waiting list" in Hainan At the enterprise level, it can play a market-oriented role in actively building the project brand effect, innovating the development mode of "migratory bird" tourism pension real estate, and improving the quality of products and services. The innovation of this paper lies in the systematical analysis and summary of the advanced experience of overseas pension real estate which is worth learning, based on which, combined with the reality of China and the development of Hainan's "migratory bird-style" tourism pension real estate, to put forward pertinent suggestions and suggestions around the closed-loop links of financing, development and operation management in the development of "Migratory bird-style" tourism retirement real estate, as a solution to the "migratory bird-style" tourism pension realestate financing difficulties, High-risk Development, long operating profit cycle and other bottlenecks. Key Words: Endowment Real Estate, Hainan, "Migratory bird-style" Tourism Endowment Real Estate, Development Model, development risk目 录 第一章 绪论.........1 第一节 研究背景及意义...........1 一、研究背景.......................1 二、研究意义.......................2 第二 节 相关概念界定...............3 一、养老地产.......................3 二、旅游地产.......................3 三、旅游养老地产...............4 四、“候鸟式”旅游 养老地产............................4 五、发展模式概念的界定...4 第三节 国内外研究现状...........5 一、国外研究现状...............5 二、国内研究现 状...............8 三、国内外研究述评.........11 第四节 研究内容、方法与创新............................12 一、研究内容.....................12 二、研究方 法.....................12 三、研究创新.....................13 第二章 国内外养老地产开发运营分析与借鉴...........14 第一节 国外养老地产发展的分析与借 鉴...........14 一、美国养老地产分析与借鉴....................... 14 二、日本养老地产分析与借鉴....................... 18 第二节 国内养老地产发展现 状............................21 一、我国养老地产发展历程............................21 二、我国养老地产发展状况............................21 第三章 海南“ 候鸟式”旅游养老地产发展概述.......24 第一节 海南省发展历程.........24 一、海南省房地产业发展历程....................... 24 二、海南省发展历程总结.26 第二节 海南发展“候鸟式”旅游养老地产的基础条件..................26 一、自然环境.....................27二、旅游景观.....................27 三、政策引 导.....................27 四、区域经济.....................29 五、基础设施.....................29 六、“候鸟式”旅游养老需求......................... 30 第三 节 海南发展“候鸟式”旅游养老地产的必要性......................30 一、利于多元化养老产品的供给................... 30 二、促进产业融合、转型升级，形成协同发展 格局..................31 三、拉动经济增长，促进文化繁荣，利于社会发展..................31 第四节 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产的发展现 状..........................31 一、海南旅游养老的需求旺盛....................... 31 二、“候鸟式”旅游养老地产参与主体明显.31 三、项目产品多数只流于养老概 念...............31 四、旅游养老服务单一.....32 第五节 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产发展存在的问题..................32 一、产业相关政策不健全.32 二、行业标准缺 失，尚未实现有效监管.......33 三、配套服务不足，产业化程度有待提高...33 四、医疗服务水平有待提高............................34 五、养老服务人才量少质 低............................34 第四章 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产案例 分析与借鉴........................35 第一节 产品类型的分析.........35 一、嵌入式开发模 式.........35 二、复合式开发模式.........35 第二节 项目运作环节视角下案例分析...............36 一、嵌入式开发模式------碧桂园珊瑚宫 殿..............................36 二、复合式开发模式------泰康之家...........38 第三节 总结与借鉴.................41 第四节 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产发展模 式的选择..................42 一、融资模式的选择.........42 二、开发模式的选择.........42 三、运营模式的选择.........43 第五章 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产开发 的风险分析及应对........... 45 第一节 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产开发的外部环境分析.........45一、政治环境分析...............45 二、经济环境分 析.............45 三、社会文化分析.............45 四、技术环境分析.............46 第二节 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产开发的内部环境分析.........46 一、资源分析 .....................46 二、产品及服务分析.........46 三、医疗设施分析.............47 第三节 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产开发的 SWOT 分析............... 47 一 、优势分析.....................47 二、劣势分析.....................48 三、机遇分析.......................49 四、面临的挑战.................50 第四节 海南“候 鸟式”旅游养老地产开发风险的应对对策.........50 一、战略思路的选择.........50 二、各阶段战略的选择.....51 第六章 海南“候鸟式”旅游养老地产开发 的建议与对 策....................53 第一节 政府层面的建议与对策............................53 一、降低“候鸟式”旅游养老地产开发运营成本......................53 二、完 善“候鸟式”旅游养老地产开发运营保障政策............. 53 第二节 企业层面的建议与对策............................55 一、打造品牌效益.............55 二、创新发 展模式.............56 三、提高产品质量，建立产业联盟丰富服务供给......................56 第七章 结论与展望.........................57 第一节 总 结.............................57 第二节 研究展望.....................58。。。。。。以下内容略