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MBA硕士毕业论文_花特大桥项目风险管理研究PDF

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随着我国经济的不断发展,交通基础设施建设逐渐完善,国内已经开启了快速交通 建设的快车道。城市化和“一带一路”政策也为交通基础设施建设 提供了机遇。在交通 基础建设过程中,处于主导地位的各级政府,由于投资建设资金不足,往往面临着较大 的财政压力,阻碍了交通建设设施的进一步完善。PPP作为一种新兴的 公私合作模式, 近年来在交通基础设施建设的领域中应用极为广泛,成为社会各界关注的热点问题。我 国的PPP模式发展在建设、管理等方面具有的较大优势。PPP模式具有长期 合作的特性, 模式的合作方众多,风险体系建设呈现出复杂化,因此如何快速识别、精准评价及有效 应对项目风险,是一个亟待解决的现实问题。 本文以PPP项目风险管理理论 为基础,以朵花特大桥风险管理为研究对象,运用层 次分析法、模糊综合评价法对朵花特大桥项目风险进行了分析研究。研究结论如下: (1)通过检查表法建立了初始风险识别 清单,运用德尔菲法对风险因素进行进一 步筛选,最终确立了包括6大类一级风险指标和20个二级风险指标的风险评价指标体 系。(2)运用AHP模糊综合评价法,建立了朵花特大 桥项目风险模型,得出该项目的 风险评价指数为3.4719,该项目的风险属于中等等级和较高等级之间。(3)以PPP项 目的风险分担机制为基准研究得出,合作过程中政府方所需 要负责的为政治责任、法律 风险和税收等工作,私营组织负责市场风险和建设项目。而对于合同冲突、项目回款、 造价管理以及项目竞争风险,没有明显的属性特征,则由双方 发挥各自的优势来共同分 担。 最后本文对朵花特大桥项目的风险点控制展开了风险回避、转移和控制的风险管控 方法分析,并且提出了针对性的管控措施,提高了风险的管控能 力,有助于项目的顺利 开展,同时也为风险管控项目的发展以及其他政企合作项目的风险管理提供借鉴。 关键词:PPP模式,风险管理,风险识别,风险评价 II Abstract With the continuous development of China's economy, the construction of transportation infrastructure is gradually improved, and the fast lane of rapid transportation construction has been opened in our country. Urbanization and the “Belt and Road” policy also provide opportunities for transportation infrastructure construction. In the process of urban transportation construction, governments at all levels in a dominant position often face greater financial pressure due to the lack of investment and construction funds, which hinders the further improvement of transportation construction facilities. As an emerging public-private cooperation model, PPP has been widely used in the field of transportation infrastructure construction in recent years, and has become a hot issue of concern to all sectors of society. The development of China's PPP model has great advantages in construction and management. The PPP model has the characteristics of long-term cooperation, and there are many partners in the model, the construction of the risk system is complicated. Therefore, how to quickly identify, accurately evaluate and effectively deal with project risks is an urgent practical problem that needs to be solved. Based on the risk management theory of PPP project, this paper takes the risk management of Duohua Grand Bridge's as the research object, and uses AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyze and study the risk of Duohua Grand Bridge project. The research conclusions are as follows: First, an initial risk identification list was established through the checklist method, and the risk factors were further screened using the Delphi method, and a risk evaluation indicator system was finally established that included 6 primary risk indicators and 20 secondary risk indicators. Second, using the AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the construction of the risk model of the Duohua Grand Bridge project was completed, and the risk evaluation index of the project was 3.4719. The risk of the project was between the medium and high level. Third, based on the risk-sharing mechanism of PPP project, it is concluded that the government should be responsible for political responsibility, legal risks, and taxation during the cooperation process, and private organizations are responsible for market risks and construction projects. However, for the contract conflict, project repayment, cost management, and similar project III competition risk, there is no obvious attribute characteristics, and the two parties will use their respective advantages to share. In the end, the risk management methods of risk avoidance, transfer and control were analyzed for the risk control of the Duohua Grand Bridge project, and targeted management and control measures were proposed to improve the risk control ability, which is conducive to the smooth development of the project, and also provides reference for the development of risk management and control projects and risk management of other government-enterprise cooperation projects. Key words: The PPP model, Risk management, Risk identification, Risk assessment IV 目录 第一章 绪论 .. 1 1.1 研究背景 ............................. 1 1.2 研究目的及意义 ................. 1 1.2.1 研究目的 ...................... 1 1.2.2 研究意义 ...................... 2 1.3 国内外研究现状 ................. 2 1.3.1 国外研究现状 .............. 2 1.3.2 国内研究现状 .............. 4 1.3.3 研究述评 ...................... 6 1.4 研究内容和研究方法 ......... 6 1.4.1 研究内容 ...................... 6 1.4.2 研究方法 ...................... 7 1.5 技术路线 ............................. 7 第二章 概念界定和理论基础 ..... 9 2.1 PPP模式概 述 ...................... 9 2.1.1 PPP模式 ....................... 9 2.1.2 PPP模式的特征 ......... 10 2.1.3 PPP模式的分类 ......... 10 2.2 PPP项目风险管理理论 .... 11 2.2.1 风险及风险管理 ........ 11 2.2.2 PPP项目风险的特征 . 12 2.2.3 PPP项目风险管理过程 ............................ 12 2.3 公共产品理论 ................... 13 2.4 本章小结 ........................... 13 第三章 朵花特大桥PPP项目风险识别 .................. 14 3.1 风险识别的方法 ............... 14 3.2 朵花特大桥项目概述 ....... 15 3.2.1 项目基本情况 ............ 15 3.2.2 项目背景 .................... 16 3.2.3 PPP项目合作框架 ..... 16 3.3 项目风险识 别 ................... 17 V 3.3.1 风险初始识别 ............ 17 3.3.2 风险指标体系的构建 18 3.4 项目风险因素分析 ........... 19 3.4.1 政治风险 .................... 19 3.4.2 法律风险 .................... 20 3.4.3 财务风险 .................... 20 3.4.4 自然风险 .................... 20 3.4.5 建设风险 .................... 20 3.4.6 市场风险 .................... 21 3.5 本章小结 ........................... 21 第四章 朵花特大桥PPP项目风险评价 ................. 22 4.1 风险评价的方法 ............... 22 4.1.1 主成分分析法 ............ 22 4.1.2 层次分析法 ................ 22 4.1.3 模糊综合评价法 ........ 22 4.2 风险评 价过程 ................... 23 4.2.1 基于层次分析法分析 23 4.2.2 判断矩阵构建及权重的求解 ................... 25 4.2.3 模糊综合评价 ............ 30 4.3 结果分 析 ........................... 34 4.4 本章小结 ........................... 35 第五章 朵花特大桥PPP项目风险应对 ................. 36 5.1 风险分担的原则 ............... 36 5.2 朵花特大桥项目风险分担的方案 .................. 37 5.3 风险应对的方法 ............... 38 5.3.1 风险回避 .................... 38 5.3.2 风险控制 .................... 38 5.3.3 风险转移 .................... 39 5.3.4 风险利用 .................... 40 5.4 朵花特大桥项目风险应对措施 ...................... 40 5.4.1 安全风险应对 ............ 40 5.4.2 造价管理风险应对 .... 41 5.4.3 工程质量风险应对 .... 41 VI 5.4.4 工期风险应对 ............ 42 5.4.5 项目回款风险应对 .... 42 5.4.6 政府换届风险应对 .... 42 5.5 本章小结 ........................... 43 结论与展望 .. 44 研究结论 ... 44 研究展望 ... 44 。。。。。。以下内容略