随着我国经济的持续发展，银行业也进入飞速发展阶段。然而在商业银行经营规 模不断扩大的同时，也就不可避免的需要面对各种更为复杂的风险， 在诸多风险之中， 财务风险做为现阶段商业银行面临的主要风险之一，其影响不容忽视。对财务风险的 控制稍有不慎，就会使商业银行遭受经济损失。商业银行的经营管理都是 以其财务状 况的评价和管理为基础进行的，想要保持商业银行的长期稳定发展，就必须要对商业 银行的财务风险进行详细分析和管理。在银行资金运作的整个过程之中，任何环 节都 可能存在财务风险。因此，商业银行需要有效的识别和评估财务风险，并有针对性的 制定财务风险管理措施来进行防范。 论文选取我国成立时间最早的商业银行——中国银 行，其下属的山东分行作为具 体的案例，重点分析中国银行山东分行财务现状，运用财务风险管理指标测评法，将 中行山东分行的主要财务风险指标从盈利能力、收益质量、成 长能力、流动性、资产 安全性以及资本充足性六个方面进行分类、赋予权重。再使用近五年来中国银行山东 分行各指标对应的财务数据计算得出具体得分，最后通过指标得分与 行业平均值得分 的对比来分析其财务风险现状，并找出其中隐藏的财务风险隐患，发现中国银行山东 分行在市场风险、资产质量风险以及信用风险方面需要引起重视。随后针对 以上三类 风险进行详细的分析，运用引入利率敏感性模型、设计调查问卷等方式，找出问题并 探究问题产生的原因，提出实际可行的改进方案。最后从优化风险管理流程、提升 员 工风险管理意识与风险管理能力、营造良好的风险管理环境三方面方面进行了总结。 旨在通过中国银行山东分行的实证分析，对中行山东分行的风险现状提出有效的对策 方案 ，对完善商业银行的财务风险预测体系和风险管理架构提供有效性建议。希望能 给国内商业银行提供一些参考。 关键字： 财务风险；商业银行；风险管理 Abstract With the continuous development of China's economy, the banking industry has entered a stage of rapid development. However, with the continuous expansion of the business scale of commercial banks, it is inevitable to face a variety of more complex risks. Among many risks, financial risk as one of the main risks faced by commercial banks at this stage, its impact can not be ignored. A little careless control of financial risk will make commercial banks suffer economic losses. The operation and management of commercial banks are based on the evaluation and management of their financial situation. In order to maintain the long-term and stable development of commercial banks, it is necessary to analyze and manage the financial risks of commercial banks in detail. Because in the whole process of the bank's capital operation, there may be financial risks in any link, which will inevitably affect the bank's asset operation and capital profit and loss. Therefore, commercial banks need to effectively identify and evaluate financial risks, and formulate targeted financial risk management measures to prevent. This paper selects the Bank of China, the earliest established and most internationalized commercial bank in China, and its subordinate Shandong branch as a specific case, focuses on analyzing the financial status of Bank of China Shandong Branch, and uses the financial risk management index evaluation method to analyze the main financial risk indexes of Bank of China Shandong Branch from profitability, income quality, growth ability, liquidity and capital The six aspects of production safety and capital adequacy are classified and weighted. Then use the financial data corresponding to each index of Bank of China Shandong branch in the past five years to calculate the specific score. Finally, through the comparison between the index score and the industry average score, analyze the current situation of its financial risk, and find out the hidden financial risk hidden in it. It is found that bank of China Shandong branch needs to pay attention to the market risk, asset quality risk and credit risk. Then it analyzes the above three kinds of risks in detail, using the interest rate sensitivity model, design questionnaire and other ways to find out the problems and explore the causes of the problems, and put forward practical and feasible improvement plans. Finally, the paper summarizes the optimization of risk management process, the promotion of risk management awareness and risk management ability of employees, and the construction of a good risk management environment. Through the empirical analysis of Shandong Branch of Bank of China, this paper puts forward effective countermeasures for the current risk situation of Shandong Branch of Bank of China, and provides effective suggestions for improving the financial risk prediction system and risk management structure of commercial banks. Hope to provide some reference for domestic commercial banks. Keywords: financial risk; commercial bank; risk management 目录 引言 ······ 1 第1章 绪论 ············ 2 1.1 研究背景 ············· 2 1.2研究意义 ·············· 2 1.3国内外研究现状 ····· 3 1.3.1国内研究 现状 ····· 3 1.3.2国外研究现状 ····· 5 1.3.3研究评述 ··········· 6 1.4研究内容 ·············· 6 1.5研究方法与技术路线 ·· ··············· 7 1.5.1研究方法 ··········· 7 1.5.2技术路线 ········· 8 第2章 商业银行财务风险概念及理论基础 ······ ······ 9 2.1财务风险的概念 ····· 9 2.1.1一般类企业财务风险的概念及主要特征 ·········· 9 2.1.2商业银行财务风险的概念及主要特征 ····· ······· 9 2.2商业银行财务风险分类 ············· 10 2.2.1市场风险 ·········· 10 2.2.2资产质量风险 ···· 11 2.2.3 信用风险·· ········ 11 2.3商业银行财务风险管理方法 ········ 11 2.4财务风险管理理论 · 12 2.4.1资产管理理论 ···· 12 2.4.2负债管理理论 ···· 14 2.4.3全面风险管理理论 ················ 15 第3章 中国银行山东分行财务风险整体评价 ······· 15 3.1中国银行山东分行概况及财务现状 ···· ············· 15 3.1.1中国银行山东分行简介 ··········· 16 3.1.2中国银行山东分行资产负债现状 ················· 16 3.1.3中国银行山东分行损益现状 ····· 17 3.1.4中国银行山东分行不良贷款结构现状 ··········· 18 3.1.5中国银行山东分行关键性指标现状 ······ ········ 19 3.2财务风险管理指标系统测评法 ····· 20 3.2.1赋予权重 ·········· 20 3.2.2财务风险测评指标的选取 ········ 21 3.2.3财 务指标描述性统计分析 ········ 22 第4章 中国银行山东分行财务风险具体分析 ······· 24 4.1市场风险 ············· 24 4.1.1引入利率敏感 性缺口模型 ········ 24 4.1.2利率变动影响分析 ················ 26 4.2资产质量风险 ······· 27 4.2.1加权风险资产 ···· 27 4.2.2加权风险资产收益率 ············· 28 4.2.3表外资产风险 ···· 29 4.3信用风险 ············· 29 4.3.1贷款情况分析 ···· 30 4.3.2信贷模式分析 ···· 31 4.3.3调查问卷 ·········· 32 第5章 中国银行山东分行财务风险管理中存在的问题 ·············· 34 5.1市场风 险管理存在的问题及分析 ·· 34 5.1.1资产和负债的构成不够合理 ····· 34 5.1.2对利率产品的使用不够充分 ····· 34 5.2资产质量风险存在的问题及分析 ·· 35 5.2.1资金周转灵活性差，存贷结构不够均衡 ········· 35 5.2.2中间业务有待进一步拓展 ········ 35 5.3信用风险管理存在的问题及分析 ·· 35 5.3.1岗位职责并未完全分离，制度存在风险隐患 ··· 35 5.3.2信贷审批流程有待优化完善 ····· 36 5.3.3贷款管理实用性有待增强 ········ 36 5.3.4贷后管 理不严密 · 36 第6章 中国银行山东分行财务风险管理建议 ······· 36 6.1市场风险管理建议 · 37 6.2资产质量风险管理建议 ············· 37 6.3信 用风险管理建议 · 38 6.4提升财务风险意识建议 ············· 39 6.5营造财务风险管理文化氛围建议 ·· 39 第7章 结论与展望 ·· 39 7.1研究结论 ·· ··········· 39 7.2研究展望 ············· 40。。。。。。以下内容略