改革开放四十年来，我国经济发展迅猛，已成为当今世界能源生产和消费大国。但 是，在全球气候变化剧烈和化石能源日益消耗的背景下，我国经济发展仍以煤炭为主的 高碳能源驱动，同时能源需要还在不断增长，这给经济、能源、环境系统协调的可持续 发展带来了许多挑战，也对可再生能源的开发利用提出了更高的新要求。可再生能源发 电产业是资金密集型产业，生产成本高且风险大，产业的发展与规模化需要多元化政策 的支持。因此，研究我国可再生能源发电产业政策相关问题具有重要的意义。政策实施 是否合理、有效，直接影响着可再生能源产业的可持续发展。全面科学的政策有效性评 估与分析，有利于判断政策实施效果是否明显、预期目标是否实现，有助于当前政策结 构的优化调整，促进可再生能源发电产业的可持续发展。 本文分析了目前可再生能源发电产业政策的国内外研究现状，并总结了当前存在的 问题，进而得到了本文的研究内容与侧重点。并根据文献的阅读整理，详细介绍了当前 的可再生能源发电产业政策，其中固定电价政策（Feed-in Tariff, FIT）和可再生能源配 额制（Renewable Portfolio Standard, RPS）是当前促进可再生能源发展的主要政策，FIT 已经在我国实施多年，且取得了一定的效果，而 RPS 在 2017 年才首次提出将在我国逐 渐推行，FIT 和 RPS 的共同实施是否能促进我国可再生能源更好的发展，其实施效果如 何，将成为各界关注的热点。本文基于系统动力学理论（System Dynamic, SD），对于 FIT 和 RPS 进行系统性分析，并利用 Vensim 软件，建立可再生能源发电产业政策的有 效性评估模型，并以风能为例进行案例分析，根据前面的分析设置基准场景和模拟场景 进行政策的模拟，并根据模拟结果分析政策的有效性以及可再生能源发电产业发展的可 持续性，提出完善我国可再生能源发电产业政策的思考和建议。此外，模型具有一定的 普适性,可以用于其他可再生能源发电产业政策的有效性评估，只需对模型的因果关系图 和流图中方程的设定做出调整。 关键词，可再生能源发电产业政策，固定电价，可再生能源配额制，系统动力学， 政策有效性评估V Abstract In the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, China’s economic has developed rapidly and become a major energy producer and consumer in the world today. However, under the background of the intense global climate change and the increasing consumption of fossil energy, China’s economic development is still driven by coal-based high-carbon energy, while energy demand is still growing, which brings many challenges to the coordinated sustainable development of economic, energy and environmental systems, and also puts forward higher requirements for the development and utilization of renewable energy. The renewable energy industry is a capital-intensive industry with high production costs and high risks. The development and scale of the industry requires the support of diversified policies. Therefore, it is of great significance to analysis the related issues of renewable energy generation policy in China. Whether the implementation of the policy is reasonable and effective directly affects the sustainable development of the renewable energy industry. Comprehensive scientific policy evaluation and analysis is conducive to judging whether the implementation effect of the policy is obvious, whether the expected goal is achieved, contributing to the optimization and adjustment of the current policy structure, and promoting the sustainable development of the renewable energy industry. This paper analyzed the current domestic and international research status of renewable energy generation policy, and summarizes the existing problems, and then obtains the research content and focus of this paper. According to the present literature and our analysis, the renewable energy generation policy is detailed. Feed-in Tariff (FIT) and Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) are the main policy of promoting renewable energy currently. FIT has been implemented in China for many years and has achieved certain effect, and RPS was first proposed in 2017, which will be gradually implemented in China. Whether the joint implementation of FIT and RPS can promote the better development of renewable energy in China, and how effective its implementation will become the focus of attention from all walks of life. Based on System Dynamics (SD), this paper systematically analyzes FIT and RPS, and uses Vensim software to establish a validity evaluation model for renewable energy generation policy. Case analysis is based on wind energy.The benchmark scenarioand simulationscenario are set to simulation policy based on the above analysis, and analyzes the effectiveness of the policy and the sustainability of the development of renewable energy generation industry based on the simulation results, and puts forward some suggestions for improving China’s renewable energy generation policy. In addition, the model has a certain universality and can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of other renewable energy generation policies. It only needs to adjust the setting of the causality diagram and flow chart of the model.我国可再生能源发电产业政策有效性评估—以固定电价和可再生能源配额制为例 Key Words，Renewable Energy Generation Policy, Feed-in Tariff, Renewable Portfolio Standard，Policy Effectiveness, System DynamicsVII 目 录 摘要............................................................................................................................3 Abstract.............................................................................................................................V 1 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义.................................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景..................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义..................................................................................................2 1.2 国内外研究综述.................................................................................................3 1.2.1 国外研究现状..........................................................................................3 1.2.2 国内研究现状..........................................................................................5 1.2.3 当前研究述评..........................................................................................6 1.3 研究内容及研究思路.........................................................................................7 1.3.1 研究内容..................................................................................................7 1.3.2 研究方法..................................................................................................7 1.3.3 技术路线..................................................................................................8 1.4 本文的创新点.....................................................................................................9 2 可再生能源发电产业政策分析................................................................................10 2.1 可再生能源发电产业相关政策.......................................................................10 2.2 政策效果分析...................................................................................................15 3 可再生能源发电产业政策有效性评估模型............................................................17 3.1 研究方法论.......................................................................................................17 3.2 可再生能源发电产业政策的系统动力学分析...............................................18 3.2.1 固定电价政策........................................................................................18 3.2.2 配额交易制度........................................................................................19 3.3 建模...................................................................................................................20 3.3.1 基于固定电价的模型............................................................................20 3.3.2 基于配额交易制度的模型....................................................................23 4 有效性评估的案例分析............................................................................................26 4.1 案例和数据描述...............................................................................................26 4.2 模型有效性检验...............................................................................................28 4.3 有效性评估.......................................................................................................29 4.3.1 模拟场景分析........................................................................................29 4.3.2 固定电价的政策有效性........................................................................30我国可再生能源发电产业政策有效性评估—以固定电价和可再生能源配额制为例 4.3.3 配额交易制度的政策有效性................................................................35 4.4 结果分析...........................................................................................................39 5 讨论与对策................................................................................................................40 6 总结与展望................................................................................................................41