本商业计划书讨论的三亚 Y 项目位于距离三亚主城区 40 公里的崖城镇三亚创意新 城区域，于国务院公布《关于推进海南国际旅游岛建设发展的若干意见》前一个月通过 协议获得项目土地开发权，地面成本较低，项目分三期进行，由深圳 HT 地产开发有限 公司与 ZE 公司成立三亚 HZ 项目公司开发，深圳 HT 地产开发公司占 80％股权，实现 绝对控股，主导项目开发。深圳 HT 地产发展有限公司是立足深圳区域进行房地产开发 的专业地产公司，通过借助母公司 HT 深圳（集团）有限公司的资源整合力量，与深圳 ZE 通讯技术公司合作获得海南省三亚市崖城镇滨海住宅开发用地约 235 亩，ZE 公司为 总部在深圳的中国著名通讯设备制造商，一直是各地政府招商投资的重点引进单位，拥 有丰富的土地储备资源。HT 深圳（集团）有限公司是间接持有 ZE 公司 16％的股份， 近年来通过积极运作，其全资子公司 HT 地产公司与 ZE 公司合作开发了成都高新区锦 蓉国际广场写字楼，取得了良好的经济效益。 本商业计划书给出的建议是针对海南三亚国际著名旅游城市和项目位于三亚创意 新城高新技术企业环绕的特点，把项目的产品定位在中高层度假公寓和多层洋房上，形 成错落有致的具有科技背景的供特定客户群体的休闲度假、居住的中高档物业群落。根 据项目的股权特点和区域特点设计科学组织架构，为项目正常运行提供组织保障；通过 一系列营销策略的组合获得较为理想的利润空间，实现资本的合理回报；同时，根据房 地产行业的风险管理特点给出相应的风险提示，预测项目可能出现的风险类型和准备采 取的相对应的措施，设计出项目失败后的退出机制。 本商业计划书通过对项目的 PEST 和 SWOT 分析，项目的市场竞争状况分析，营销 策略分析，财务分析，投资风险分析，指出分析给出项目开发的区位优势，所处的宏观 政治经济环境、人文风俗，项目本身存在的优势劣势、机遇威胁，所面临的行业竞争状 况，综合上述分析得出项目面临一定的威胁，但影响有限，同时，给出应该采取的市场 营销策略。通过项目开发过程中的各种财务状况预测和财务敏感性分析，项目有很大的 盈利空间，揭示出项目在经济上是可行的。项目开发存在政策风险、管理风险和市场风 险，通过采取相关对策，但这些风险都是可控的。 综合上述分析，结论认为，Y 项目具有运作空间大、投资收益较高、风险可控等特 点，该投资方案是可行的。 关键词，计划书；市场营销；财务分析；风险分析 IABSTRACT Sanya Y Project which is evaluated in this Business Plan lies in Sanya Creative Park of Yacheng Town. The land development rights of this project was authorized by contract one month before the promulgation of the State Council’s Some Opinions Relevant to the Promotion of the Construction and Development of Hainan International Tourism Island, therefore, the land cost of this project is relatively low. This project will be divided into three period, and developed by Sanya HZ Project Company, which is a joint venture of Shenzhen HT Estate Development Company and ZE Company. Shenzhen HT Real Estate Development Company has an 80% holding in the joint venture, to achieve an absolute control and a leading role in the development of the project. Shenzhen HT Real Estate Development Company is a professional real estate development company based in Shenzhen. With the help of its holding company, HT Shenzhen (Group) Limited, Shenzhen HT Real Estate Development Company jointly with Shenzhen ZE Communication Technology Company, obtained an coastal land of about 235 acreage in Yacheng Town of Sanya City for housing. ZE Company is a celebrated manufacture of communication devices in China, with headquarter in Shenzhen. It is a focus for various local governments to attract business and investment and possesses rich land resources. HT Shenzhen (Group) Limited has an 16% indirect holding of ZE Company. In recent years, under the effective arrangement with ZE company, its wholly-owned subsidiary HT Real Estate Company has co-developed Jinrong International Plaza in Hit-tech District of Chengdu City with ZE Company and received favorable profit margin. In consideration of Sanya’s status as a famous international tourism city and the location of the project in Sanya Creative Park which is surrounded by hi-tech enterprises, this project will be developed into tall holiday apartments and multi-story houses, built as a medium and high grade community for specific customer groups to make holiday and dwell. The business plan will discuss how to design a good organizational structure according to the shareholder characteristics and regional characteristics so to provide organizational guarantee for the project, how to gain a reasonable profit margin and realize the return of investment, how to allocate risk alarm and forecast the potential risk types and take appropriate measures according to the risk management principles of real estate industry and how to design an exit mechanism in case of failure of the project. This business plan consists of the following parts, summary, preface, introduction of the project, PEST and SWOT analysis, analysis of market competition, analysis of marketing IIstrategy, analysis of finance and analysis of investment risk. The business plan will respectively interpret the location advantage of this project, the macro political and economical environment, the advantages and disadvantages of the project itself, opportunities and threat, and the stat quo of present market competition. Based on the outcome of the above analysis, the business plan will design a reasonable marketing strategy, forecast different financial positions during different periods and make a financial sensitivity analysis, analyze the potential risk, design corresponding exit mechanism, and finally forms a detailed feasibility report of the project development. Key words，Business Plan；Marketing；Financial Analysis；Risk Analysis III目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单.................................................................................................................................VII 第一章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 背景和意义..................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述......................................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 有关房地产现状及发展的观点.............................................................................. 3 1.2.2 有关房地产投资及项目管理的前期评估.............................................................. 4 1.2.3 有关房地产营销管理的特点.................................................................................. 5 1.2.4 有关房地产组织管理的研究文献.......................................................................... 6 1.2.5 有关竞争战略的研究文献...................................................................................... 7 1.3 研究内容及研究方法..................................................................................................... 8 第二章 项目概况介绍............................................................................................................10 2.1 项目位置介绍............................................................................................................... 10 2.2 项目用地概况............................................................................................................... 12 2.3 项目初步定位............................................................................................................... 12 2.4 项目开发的原因........................................................................................................... 13 2.5 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 14 第三章 项目运作管理............................................................................................................15 3.1 HT地产公司的发展历程............................................................................................... 15 3.2 项目公司的股权结构................................................................................................... 16 3.3 项目公司的组织结构................................................................................................... 17 3.4 项目运营管理特点....................................................................................................... 19 3.5 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 19 第四章 环境分析和市场分析................................................................................................20 4.1 PEST分析....................................................................................................................... 20 IV4.1.1 政治（Political）................................................................................................... 20 4.1.2 经济（Economic）................................................................................................ 21 4.1.3 社会（Social）...................................................................................................... 23 4.1.4 技术（Technological） ......................................................................................... 23 4.2 五力模型分析............................................................................................................... 24 4.2.1 竞争对手分析........................................................................................................ 25 4.2.2 替代品的威胁........................................................................................................ 27 4.2.3 潜在进入者的威胁................................................................................................ 28 4.2.4 供应商讨价还价能力............................................................................................ 28 4.2.5 客户议价能力........................................................................................................ 29 4.3 SWOT分析..................................................................................................................... 29 4.3.1 优势（Strengths）................................................................................................. 29 4.3.2 劣势（Weaknesses）............................................................................................. 30 4.3.3 机会（Opportunities）.......................................................................................... 30 4.3.4 威胁（Threats）.................................................................................................... 31 4.4 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 32 第五章 项目市场定位和营销策略........................................................................................33 5.1 产品定位....................................................................................................................... 33 5.2 价格定位....................................................................................................................... 34 5.3 渠道策略....................................................................................................................... 34 5.4 促销策略....................................................................................................................... 35 5.4.1 产品包装................................................................................................................ 35 5.4.2 客户定位................................................................................................................ 36 5.4.3 营销推广................................................................................................................ 37 5.5 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 40 第六章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................41 6.1 销售收入预测............................................................................................................... 41 6.2 总开发成本费用估算................................................................................................... 43 6.2.1 费用核算依据........................................................................................................ 44 V6.3 静态财务测算............................................................................................................... 45 6.4 动态盈利分析与现金流量表....................................................................................... 46 6.5 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 47 第七章 风险及对策................................................................................................................48 7.1 盈亏平衡点与敏感性分析........................................................................................... 48 7.1.1 盈亏平衡点（Break Even Point，简称BEP） .................................................... 48 7.1.2 敏感性分析(Sensitivity Analysis) ......................................................................... 48 7.2 政策风险与对策........................................................................................................... 50 7.3 市场风险及对策........................................................................................................... 50 7.4 管理风险及对策........................................................................................................... 51 7.5 开发失败的风险及对策............................................................................................... 51 7.6 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 51 结 论......................................................................................................................................53