近年来，伴随着我国房地产业的快速发展，房地产市场出现了局部过热的现象， 部分城市泡沫严重，房地产市场从之前高增速、高盈利的黄金时代进入到市场容量收 窄、盈利水平差异化的新常态阶段。大量的房地产公司在项目投资前因为没有进行系 统、科学的分析，盲目乐观进行投资，使公司在后期的项目销售或运营过程中出现了 严重亏损，最终导致公司破产、被兼并的命运，给国家和企业带来投资损失。 本商业计划书以北京 SY 公司开发的 CH 大厦为案例，通过从宏观经济环境到微 观项目层面的多层次系统分析，借助波特五力模型、4P 理论、SWOT 分析、财务评价 等工具，建立房地产项目的投资决策支持体系。通过本商业计划书的研究建立的决策 支持体系，既可为房地产公司针对项目开发的投资决策提供依据，避免盲目决策；也 能给项目投资人提供项目的信息和收益分析，为投资人参与项目的投资提供决策支持。 本文的分析思路是在对 CH 大厦项目以及开发商 SY 公司的基本情况进行介绍的 前提下，从宏观逐步导入微观： 首先，采用波特五力模型分析房地产行业的外部竞争环境，详细分析北京市的 宏观经济因素和房地产市场等外部因素； 其次，在宏观分析的基础上，立足项目本身，使用 SWOT 分析工具对项目自身的 优劣势、机会、威胁进行分析，结合市场研究以及对典型项目的现场调查，从宏观导 向中观，对项目进行市场定位，精准目标客户； 然后，在项目自身分析的基础上，用 4P 理论分析制定项目的营销策略，组合运 用各种营销手段利用多种渠道，来完成项目的招租和经营，在微观层面上确保项目的 操作成功； 最后对项目的开发收益进行评价，并对项目所面临的风险进行分析、制定相应 对策。 本文的最大特点是建立了房地产项目的系统化投资决策支持体系，将宏观经济 因素与与项目的微观具体因素进行结合，理论联系实际；本商业计划书的研究分析， 对房地产公司进行项目的投资决策有较高的应用价值，同时还可为其他投资人针对房 地产项目的投资实施、降低投资风险提供决策参考。 关键词：房地产业 投资决策 营销策略 商业计划 Abstract In recent years, as the rapid development of real estate industry, local markets face various problems in overheating and serious bubbles. As results, the market has been changed from golden age which was known as high growth and high profitability to the new normal age natured with narrowing market capacity and differential profitability. Due to the lack of systematic and scientific analysis, a large number of real estate developers invest blindly which causes to serious losses in project sales or post-operation process that ultimately leads to bankruptcy, being merged. It brings about investment losses to the state and enterprises. The business plan is aimed at the analysis of the Plaza CH which was developed by the Beijing SY Company. Through the multi-level analysis of macro-economic environment and the micro project level, it established the investment decision supporting system by applying the Porter’s five forces model, 4P theory, SWOT analysis and financial evaluation tools. And the system established by this business plan provides the basis for developers in decision-making process and assists developers to avoid blind decision. At the same time, it shows the project information and analysis of profit and offers the support for potential investors in investment decision. The structure of this thesis started form the analysis of macro environment and gradually went deep into micro based on the general introduction of Plaza CH and Beijing SY Company. First, detailed analyzing the competition environment of real estate market, including macro-economy factors and real estate market of Beijing, by applying the Porter’s five forces model. On the basis above, positioning the project and targeting customers by applying the SWOT analysis tool which is the method used to identify the project’s own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threat and combining the market research as well as surveys of comparable projects. Afterwards, setting out the leasing and operation plan by selecting marketing theory 4P and various marketing ways and channels in order to complete tasks in leasing and operation and insure the success of operation in micro level. Lastly, perform the evaluation of the project, formulate corresponding measures to decease or avoid the risk and then draw the conclusion that this project is with high investment value. The remarkable characteristic of the thesis is to establish the systematic investment decision support framework that combines factors of macro economy and project, the theory with practice. The analysis of this business plan was deemed to have high practical value for developers in projects investment decision, meanwhile provide reference for potential investors in decision-making and reducing risk of investment Key words: Real estate industry Investment decision Marketing strategies Business plan 目录 1 序言 ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景和意义 ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 相关文献综述 .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 有关商业计划书的写作 ............................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 SWOT 分析模型 ........................................................................................................... 2 1.2.3 竞争环境分析 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2.4 房地产项目市场营销策略 ........................................................................................ 4 1.3 研究内容与方法 ...................................................................................................................... 5 1.3.1 研究方法 .................................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 研究内容 .................................................................................................................... 5 2 公司与项目的基本情况 ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 项目概况 ................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.1 项目位置及四至 ........................................................................................................ 7 2.1.2 项目交通条件和区域现状 ........................................................................................ 7 2.1.3 项目技术指标 ............................................................................................................ 8 2.1.4 项目开发计划 ............................................................................................................ 8 2.2 公司情况 ................................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.1 公司简介 .................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 公司组织架构及人员情况 ........................................................................................ 9 2.3 本章小结 ............................................................................................................................... 10 3 投资环境分析 ................................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 北京市宏观经济因素 ............................................................................................................ 11 3.1.1 国内生产总值和人均 GDP ....................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 第三产业比重 .......................................................................................................... 12 3.1.3 社会消费品零售总额 .............................................................................................. 13 3.1.4 城市化进程 .............................................................................................................. 14 3.2 北京房地产市场 .................................................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 房地产开发投资 ...................................................................................................... 15 3.2.2 写字楼市场销售情况 .............................................................................................. 16 3.2.3 写字楼市场租赁情况 .............................................................................................. 16 3.3 竞争环境分析 ........................................................................................................................ 17 3.3.1 行业内现有企业间的竞争 ........................................................................................ 17 3.3.2 新进入者的威胁 ........................................................................................................ 17 3.3.3 替代品生产者的威胁 ................................................................................................ 18 3.3.4 顾客的讨价还价能力 ................................................................................................ 18 3.3.5 供应商的讨价还价能力 ............................................................................................ 18 3.4 本章小结 ............................................................................................................................... 19 4 项目市场定位 ................................................................................................................................... 20 4.1 SWOT 分析 .............................................................................................................................. 20 4.1.1 项目自身的优势（S） .............................................................................................. 20 4.1.2 项目自身的劣势（W） .............................................................................................. 20 4.1.3 项目外部的机会（O） .............................................................................................. 20 4.1.4 项目外部的威胁（T） .............................................................................................. 21 4.2 项目市场定位 ........................................................................................................................ 21 4.2.1 写字楼的市场定位 .................................................................................................... 21 4.2.2 商业的市场定位 ........................................................................................................ 23 4.3 本章小结 ............................................................................................................................... 23 5 项目营销策略 ................................................................................................................................... 24 5.1 项目的产品策略 .................................................................................................................... 24 5.2 项目的定价策略 .................................................................................................................... 25 5.3 项目的渠道策略 .................................................................................................................... 28 5.4 项目的营销推广 .................................................................................................................... 29 5.4.1 推广思路与策略 ........................................................................................................ 29 5.4.2 推广节奏 .................................................................................................................... 30 5.4.3 推广手段 .................................................................................................................... 30 5.5 本章小结 ............................................................................................................................... 31 6 项目经济评价与财务分析 ................................................................................................................ 32 6.1 项目总投资估算 .................................................................................................................... 32 6.2 投资使用计划与资金筹措 .................................................................................................... 33 6.2.1 投资使用计划 ............................................................................................................ 33 6.2.2 资金筹措 .................................................................................................................... 34 6.3 项目经营收入及成本预测 .................................................................................................... 34 6.3.1 项目经营收入 ............................................................................................................ 34 6.3.2 项目经营成本 ............................................................................................................ 35 6.4 项目财务效益预测 ................................................................................................................ 35 6.5 本章小结 ............................................................................................................................... 36 7 风险分析及对策 ............................................................................................................................... 37 7.1 项目敏感性分析 .................................................................................................................... 37 7.2 项目风险分析与对策 ............................................................................................................ 38 7.2.1 政策风险 .................................................................................................................... 39 7.2.2 市场风险 .................................................................................................................... 39 7.2.3 运营风险 .................................................................................................................... 40 7.2.4 开发建设风险 ............................................................................................................ 40 7.3 本章小结 ............................................................................................................................... 40 8 结论 ................................................................................................................................................... 41