鉴于长虹公司以往的可行性研究报告分析比较简单，对资金的时间价值基本 不考虑，动态评价相当粗糙，经济分析侧重于项目达产后的销售收入、利润总额、 投资利润率和静态回收期（按 70%的产销率计算），没有形成科学规范的可行性研 究模式。本报告针对上述问题进行研究，在对项目的市场需求和产品、厂址选择、 建设规模与生产技术方案、环保与职业安全、组织机构与人力资源配置等方面进 行可行性综合分析的基础上，着重计算长虹公司的加权平均资本成本，并将此作 为项目的贴现率，同时对项目的内部收益率、盈亏平衡点、敏感性、净现值等经 济指标进行了预测和分析。 本文研究将一些项目管理的知识引入到可行性研究的内容里来，帮助企业建 立完善的较全面系统的可行性分析框架。报告用该分析框架对长春长虹工业园项 目进行经济可行性研究，同时分析该项目面临的风险以及公司应该采取的对策， 为项目管理者的有效决策提供依据。报告针对长虹公司建立的项目分析框架为其 他项目投资的正确决策以及项目建设的顺利进行提供了有益的参考。 关键词，可行性研究，长春长虹工业园项目，电视机II Abstract The previous feasibility study report of Changhong Corporation was too simple. No consideration was taken into the time value of capital and the dynamic assessment was rather rough, either. Criterion and promotion of the economic analyses must be done because its focus was on sales income, total profit before tax, investment profit rate and static recycling period after putting into practice of the project. Based on feasibility analyses on the market demand and products, the selection of the factory site, construction scale and the scheme of production and technology, environmental protection and occupational safety, organization and human resource distribution, calculating weighted average cost of capital of Changhong Corporation as discount rate of the project are emphasized in this paper while economic indexes of the project are forecast and analyzed, such as internal rate return, break-even points, sensitivity, net present value, etc. The knowledge of project management is introduced in the feasibility study in the paper, which would help an enterprise to set up a more perfect and systematic framework of feasibility analyses. The framework has been used to conduct the economic feasibility study of the project in Changhong Industrial Park in Changchun City. Meanwhile the risks of the project and the related policy to be adopted by the company are also made so as to provide the project managers with basis for effective decisions. The framework of feasibility analyses in the light of projects of Changhong Corporation will offer a useful reference to the investment and construction of other projects. Key words: Feasibility Study; Project of Changhong Industrial Park in Changchun City; TelevisionIII 目 录 第一章 绪 论.......................................................1 1.1 选题背景...................................................... 1 1.2 项目背景...................................................... 2 1.3 报告结构...................................................... 2 第二章 可行性研究理论综述...........................................4 2.1 可行性研究的概念.............................................. 4 2.2 可行性研究的作用.............................................. 4 2.3 可行性研究的基本依据和要求.................................... 5 2.4 可行性研究的理论发展.......................................... 6 2.4.1 国外可行性研究理论发展.................................... 6 2.4.2 我国可行性研究的发展状况.................................. 8 2.5 可行性研究内容................................................ 9 第三章 长春长虹工业园项目概况......................................10 3.1 项目名称及建设单位........................................... 10 3.1.1 项目名称................................................. 10 3.1.2 建设单位简介............................................. 10 3.2 建设规模及年限............................................... 11 3.3 项目必要性................................................... 11 第四章 项目的市场分析..............................................12 4.1 市场调查..................................................... 12 4.1.1 市场调查的作用........................................... 12 4.1.2 市场调查的内容........................................... 12IV 4.1.3 市场调查的方法........................................... 13 4.2 市场预测..................................................... 14 4.3 项目的市场分析............................................... 14 4.3.1 普通彩电市场............................................. 14 4.3.2 数字电视市场............................................. 15 4.4 项目的产品预测............................................... 15 第五章 项目技术方案................................................17 5.1 产品介绍..................................................... 17 5.1.1 彩色 CRT 电视............................................. 17 5.1.2 平板电视................................................. 17 5.1.3 数字电视................................................. 17 5.1.4 机顶盒................................................... 18 5.1.5 数字电视一体机........................................... 18 5.2 项目的地点选择............................................... 18 5.2.1 地理区位................................................. 18 5.2.2 交通通讯................................................. 19 5.2.3 长春汽车产业开发区....................................... 19 5.3 项目规划方案................................................. 20 5.4 工艺技术方案................................................. 20 5.4.1 适应产品................................................. 20 5.4.2 注塑、喷涂生产........................................... 20 5.4.3 机插生产................................................. 21 5.4.4 整机生产................................................. 21 5.4.5 工艺平面布置............................................. 23 5.4.6 项目动力需求............................................. 23 5.5 土地厂房规划................................................. 24 5.6 环境保护..................................................... 24 5.7 职业安全..................................................... 25V 5.8 新公司组建方案............................................... 26 5.8.1 股权比例................................................. 26 5.8.2 管理层安排............................................... 27 5.8.3 运作模式................................................. 27 5.8.4 组织机构................................................. 27 5.8.5 人员安排................................................. 28 5.8.6 人员培训................................................. 28 5.9 项目实施进度................................................. 28 第六章 项目的经济可行性分析........................................31 6.1 投资估算和资金筹措........................................... 31 6.2 经济效益分析................................................. 32 6.2.1 项目计算期............................................... 32 6.2.2 经济预测与分析........................................... 32 6.2.2.1 未来五年产、销量及销售收入预测及分析 ................. 32 6.2.2.2 未来生产成本预测及分析 ............................... 33 6.2.2.3 经济效益估算表及分析 ................................. 35 6.2.2.4 税金的测算与分析 ..................................... 36 6.2.3 经济指标分析............................................. 37 6.2.3.1 静态回收期 ........................................... 37 6.2.3.2 投资利润率 ........................................... 38 6.2.3.3 净现值 ............................................... 38 6.2.3.4 内部收益率 ........................................... 40 6.2.3.5 EVA 分析 ............................................. 41 6.3 不确定性分析................................................. 41 6.3.1 盈亏平衡点分析........................................... 41 6.3.2 敏感性分析............................................... 42 6.4 社会效益分析................................................. 43 6.5 分析结论..................................................... 43VI 第七章 项目的风险与对策............................................45 7.1 风险分析概述................................................. 45 7.2 本项目风险因素识别........................................... 45 7.3 本项目风险评估及防范......................................... 46 第八章 项目研究结论................................................48 附件一............................................................ 49 附件二............................................................ 50 致谢..............................................................51