资金供款问题是农村基本养老保险的核心问题之一,也是解决我国农村基 本养老保险发展问题的关键所在本文在广泛阅读国内外相关研究文献,了解 我国农村基本养老保险资金供款的现状与问题的基础上,从理论和实证两方面, 探讨了政府在农村基本养老保险资金供款中的财政责任;并以宁夏回族自治区 为例,在合理假设的基础上,采用科学的精算方法测算了政府补贴农村基本养 老保险所承担的财政资金和财政风险,进行了可行性论证主要内容如下: 首先,通过对农民身份及其职业特征的界定,将农村基本养老保险参保对 象分为纯农民!农民工和被征地农民三类,并从制度供给的角度,根据/谁收 益,谁负责0的原则,探讨了三种农民参加农村基本养老保险的资金供款主体, 并进一步论证了政府对这三类农民基本养老保险的供款责任,进而从理论上分 析了政府应该承担一定比例的财政责任 其次,基于对经济发展水平相对落后的宁夏回族自治区农村居民的实地调 查分析,从制度需求方的角度讨论了影响农村居民参保意愿的诸多因素,实证 结果表明,政府补贴是影响农民参加农村基本养老保险的最为重要和最为显著 的因素,与多数农村居民认为政府应该承担一定的养老责任并为农村基本养老 保险进行保险费补贴的调查结果相吻合 再次,通过利用人口精算理论对宁夏的人口普查数据进行分析,在编制出 宁夏乡村国民生命表基础上,对未来20余年内宁夏乡村参保人口进行了封闭预 测;结合宁夏当地的经济特征和政府财政收入的变化规律,在对个人账户利率! 参保率!缴费增长率!通货膨胀率和地方财政收入增长率等基本要素进行合理 假设的前提下,测算了宁夏自治区政府全面补贴农民参加农村基本养老保险所 承担的财政资金和风险;结合2020年实现农保全覆盖的国家发展目标,提出并 论证了政府补贴的诸多可行方案,研究结果表明,当平均通货膨胀率为1.3%, 地方财政增长率为8%时,在缴费增长率为5%,个人账户利率为3%或3.5%的 条件下,政府财政补贴农村基本养老保险是可行的 最后,在总结全文的基础上提出六条政策建议,即政府应该关注农民养老 问题,重视农村基本养老保险制度的建立和发展;承担一定比例的财政补贴责 任;加大中央财政对贫困地区的财政转移支付;利用精算学等科学工具控制政 府财政风险;积极探索农保多渠道的筹资方式和加强农保资金的管理,拓宽投 资渠道,保证农保资金的保值增值,确保农村养老保险长期稳定的发展 关键词:财政补贴;农村基本养老保险;供款责任;可行性浙江大学硕士学位报告农村基本养老保险资金供款中的政府责任及其可行性研究 AbstraCt Financing15oneofthemostimPortantPartsinChineseRuralBasie EndowmentInsuranee(RBEI),also15thekeytosolvetheProblemsinits develoPment.ThisPaPerProvesthegove姗eni.5finaneingresPonsibilityinRBEI intheoretiealandPositivetwodifferentways,onthebasicof劝owingthehistory andstatusquoofChineseR卫ralBasicEndowmenthisuraneeandreadingmany relativeresearehingPaPers.Thenweealeulatesthefinaneeriskifthegoven刀nent givesfinaneesUrpPorttoRBEIbyreasonablehyPothesisandaetuarialmodel.The detailsareasfollows: First,wedividePeasantsintoPurefarmers,migrantworkersandlandless Peas以5thleeeategoriesbyidenti尔ngPeasants,identities.ThenweProvethe governrnent.5finaneeresPonsibilityresPectivelyinthesethreekindsofPeasants. RuralBasicEndowmentInsuraneefromthePersPectiveofsystem.suPPI协ng, theoreticallyProvethatthegovernmentshouldbearaeertainProPortionoffinaneial resPonsibilityinRuralBasieEndowmentInsuranee. Seeond,weanalysethe1237validsurveydatafromNingXiaHuiAutonomous which15arePresentativenationwidesamPle.ThenweProvethatgovernlllent.s finaneeSuPPort15themostProminentandsignifieantfaetorwhiehaffectsthewillof PeasantstakingPartinRuralBasieEndowmeniInsuranceamongtheotherfaetors suehastheaverageincome,whetherPlannedParenthoodfallliily,age,ete,Positively ProvethegoverlullentshouldbearacertainPr0PortionoffinaneialresPonsibilityin RuralBasicEndowment玩suranee. Again,wemakeNationalNingxiaVillageLifeTablebyusingactuarialtheory ofPoPulationandcensusdatafoNingxia,thenweealculatetheelosedPredieted resultsofinsuredPoPulationofNingXiainmorethan20yearsinthefuture.After that,wegivereaeonableassumPtionsaboutPersonalaccountrate,averageCPI index,joiningrate,Pa尹ngincreasingrateandgove二ent,5revenueincreasingrate onthebasisofloealeeonomiccharacteristics.Thenweealculatethegovellllllent.s finaneeriskonthebasisofasSllmPtionswhiehare1.3%ofaverageCPIondexand 8%ofgovern幻几ent,5revenue,givethefeasibleProjeetsaimfor100%eoveredin 2020whiehProveit.5feasibleofgivingfinaneials哪Portforgovenllnent.Thetwo feasibleProjeetsaretheonewhieh155%ofPa贝nginereasingrateand3%of Personalaecountrateandtheotheronewhich155%ofPa户nginereasingratearid 3.5%ofPersonalaccoULntrate#浙江大学硕士学位报告农村基本养老保险资金供款中的政府责任及其可行性研究 Finally,wegivethePolicysuggestionssuchasgovenunentshouldPaymore attentiontoRuralBasicEndowmentInsurance,inereasefinaneialsuPPort,transfer caPitalfromcentralgovenuneni,controltheriskofgovernment.5finaneebyusing aetuarialscienee,keePthewholeeaPitalincreaseinginmoreavailableinvestlnent ehanneland50on,tomakeRuralBasieEndowmenthisuranoeindeveloPbetter. Keywords:Government,5financialresPonsibility;RuralBasieEndowment Insurance;CaPitalsuPPly;Feasibilityanalysis Ill浙江大学硕士学位报告农村基本养老保险资金供款中的政府责任及其可行性研究 目录 摘要.....................................,...............,/二0,/.,0.0,00....,..,0.1 Abstract...,0././二/./0./二////.0.0.00/././二0.,/,0/.00二/0.00.,0二0,0.,0二0..,11 1绪论//,0........0...0/,/......................00..,0二0./,00.,00二0.0.1 1.1研究背景...................................................!.............................................1 1.1.1农村人口老龄化程度日益加剧.........................................................1 1.1.2土地保障功能弱化................,..................,.............................2 1.1.3传统的家庭养老受到挑战..................................................................2 1.1.4农村养老保险发展面临困境......................................................3 1.2研究现状二,...........................,..............,.........................................3 1.3研究的目的和意义............................,.......................................,.,7 1.3.1研究目的....,.........................................,.,..........................-7 1.3.2研究意义...................................................................................,....7 1.4研究思路与方法...............................................................................,.....8 1.4.1研究思路.............,..........................................................................8 1.4.2研究方法..............................................................................................9 1.5研究的创新点..,........,二,..............,......,................,...........9 2我国农村基本养老保险资金供款的现状及问题..,00.0二/.,/.,0..,00/!.0,/.n 2.1我国农村基本养老保险制度发展及现状.................................................11 2.2我国农村基本养老保险资金筹集渠道现状.............................................13 2.3典型地区农村基本养老保险资金供款的实践与特点.................,.....巧 2.4我国农村基本养老保险资金供款存在的问题.........................................17 2.4.1筹资比例不合理.............................................................................,二17 2.4.2筹资标准低,保障能力差................................................................打 2.4.3政府缺乏明确的财政责任................................................................18 2.4,4法制化程度不高,缴费不具强制性................................................18 3政府在农村基本养老保险中供款责任的理论分析............../0...........0二19 3.1农民的定位与分化...............................,............................................,.,19 3.1.1纯农民.........................................................,................................19 3.1.2农民工.................................................................................20 3.1.3被征地农民.............,..............................................,...............20 3.2农村基本养老保险资金筹集的原则........................................,........,.20 3.3农村基本养老保险的供款责任主体分析................................................21 3.3.1纯农民基本养老保险的供款责任主体分析....................................21 3.3.2农民工基本养老保险的供款责任主体分析....................................22 3.3.3被征地农民基本养老保险的供款责任主体分析............................24浙江大学硕士学位报告农村基本养老保险资金供款中的政府责任及其可行性研究 3.4小结................................................................................................,......25 4政府补贴对宁夏农村居民参保意愿的影响..........0..............0..0.27 4.1宁夏农村养老保险的开展情况................-..........................................27 4.2调查的基本情况.,...........,.....................................................................28 4.3实证模型的构建................................,.....................................,......33 4.3.1实证模型的变量说明.......,..........................................................33 4.3.2实证模型的回归结果................................................................34 4.3.3实证模型的结果讨论.................,................................................37 4.4小结......,..........................,.......................................,.................39 5宁夏政府补贴农村基本养老保险的可行性研究..,0,0..,0二//.//二/0/二0.0,.43 5.1宁夏未来参保人口的预测......,............................................................43 5.1.1生命表的概念........................................,.....................,.........43 5.1.2生命表的元素...,...................................................................44 5.1.3国民生命表的编制........,二,..................,..................46 5.1.4未来农村参保人口的封闭预测........................................................49 5.2缴费标准的确定...,...............................................................................53 5.2.1农民的缴费意愿与缴费能力分析........................,.....................54 5.2.2政府补贴标准的确定........................................................................56 5.3宁夏政府财政补贴的可行性分析与风险测算.........................................58 5.3.1宁夏政府财政补贴的可行性分析........................,.....................58 5.3.2宁夏政府财政补贴的财政风险测算.......................气..................62 5.4小结..............,...........................,..................................................68 6结论与政策建议...................0二0....0............................0....0二071 6.1结论...................,...........................................................................71 6.2政策建议...................................................................................................,.72 6.2.1关注农民养老问题,重视农村基本养老保险的建立和发展........72 6.2.2明确政府应该承担的财政责任............,.........................,.....72 6.2.3加强中央财政对贫困地区的转移支付力度...................................73 6.2.4科学制定农保制度,控制政府财政风险.............,..........,...73 6.2.5积极探索多渠道的筹资模式...........................................................卜73 6.2.6加强农保资金的管理,拓宽投资渠道....................................,.74