如今，中国己经成为世界举世瞩目的制造型产业大国，如何将“中国制造”发展成 为“中国创造”成为当前我国转型期的重要命题。“创意产业”作为一种崇尚个人创造 力，强调文化艺术对经济的渗透和贡献的新理念，成为推动二十一世纪经济发展新兴的 思潮和经济实践。 发展创意产业已成为当今世界经济发展的新潮流和众多国家、地区的战略选择。创 意产业是社会和经济发展到高级阶段，科技和文化高度融合而产生的新形态，是全球产 业发展的普遍趋势，是具有巨大经济和社会效益的朝阳产业。同时，经济全球化后，中 国的城市转型诱发出不同的空间规划机制，创意科技园区的蓬勃发展，脱胎于过去的产 业结构及发展模式，而转向以创新产业空间为主。 本项目为 H 公司投资肇庆创意科技园，立足大旺高新区，以创意产业为基础，以商 业地产为主题，承接来自佛山、中山的产业转移，开发办公室、商铺、公寓及工业厂房 为主的物业，打造一体化服务业先导基地。该项目满足高新区产业发展需求，提升现代 服务业水平，完善创新创业环境建设，培育高新技术和战略新兴产业，将成为高新区产 业升级，转变经济增长方式重点示范，在大旺高新区引起广泛关注。因此在项目实施之 前，就要致力于项目的商业计划分析。 鉴于此，本文在对该地区市场环境及周边地区的分析及实地考察的基础上，收集各 种资料与数据，运用 PEST 分析法、五力模型和 SWOT 分析法等环境分析理论对项目所 在的宏观环境、竞争环境及内部环境进行分析，继而利用财务报表分析、经济分析等方 法，从项目的技术可行性、财务可行性、经济和社会可行性等方面进行了分析论证。在 此基础上，本文提出了该项目的商业计划书。 通过比较、分析、论证，文章最后得出了该项目切实可行的结论。本项目的开发不 但可以取得一定的经济效益，而且还有较好的社会效益。 关键字，创意科技园项目；市场分析；财务分析；商业计划II Abstract Nowadays, China has become a large country with manufacturing industry which attracts worldwide attention in the world, how to develope Made in China into Created in China has become the important proposition in the current transitional period. As a respect for individual creativity, Creative industries emphasizes the new ideas that arts and culture take part in the contribution to the economy, promotes economic development and economic practice in the twenty-first century. Developing creative industries has become a new trend of world economic development and a strategic choice of a number of countries and regions. The creative industry is a new form of technological and cultural high degree of integration in the advanced stage of social and economic, and general trend of the global industrial development, which is one of the sunrise industries with huge economic and social benefits. At the same time, as long as economic globalization, China's urban transition induced different spatial planning mechanisms. The creative science park, borns out of the pasted industrial structure and mode, has achieved vigorous development, trend to be in favor of innovation industrial space. This project is the investment of H Company in the Zhaoqing Creative Technology Park, through the Dawang high-tech zones, based on the creative industries and industrial real estate, to undertake the industrial transfer from Foshan, Zhongshan, develop offices rooms, shops, apartments and industrial plants, and to create a pilot base of integrated services. The project meets the demand for industrial development of high-tech zones, enhances the level of modern service industry, improves the construction of innovation and entrepreneurial environment, and cultivates high-tech and strategic emerging industries. It will caused widespread attention in Dawang high-tech zones change. The project become the mode of industrial upgrading and economic growth in the high-tech zones. Before the implementation of the project, we should work for the project's business plan. Therefore, this project plan based on the of the analysis of the regional market environment and site visits of the surrounding areas, collected all kinds of information and data, used environmental analysis theory such as PEST analysis, five forces model and SWOT analysis, to analysis the macro environment, the competitive environment and internal environment. Then we use financial statement analysis, economic analysis methods to appraisal the project's technical feasibility, financial feasibility, economic and social feasibility. On this basis, this paper presents the project's business plan. By comparison, analysis, argumentation, the article finally come to the practicalIII conclusion of the project. The development of this project can not only achieve certain economic benefits, but also social benefits. Key Words: Creative science park project; Market analysis, Financial analysis; Business plan.IV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表清单............................................................................................................................... VIII 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义.............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 创意科技园的相关研究........................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 房地产定位相关研究............................................................................................... 5 1.2.3 基于创意科技主题的商业地产开发....................................................................... 6 1.2.4 环境分析理论........................................................................................................... 7 1.2.5 投资分析理论......................................................................................................... 10 1.3 研究方法与内容............................................................................................................ 11 1.3.1 研究方法................................................................................................................. 11 1.3.2 技术路线................................................................................................................. 12 1.3.3 报告结构安排......................................................................................................... 12 第二章 环境分析....................................................................................................................14 2.1 项目概况........................................................................................................................ 14 2.1.1 项目背景................................................................................................................. 14 2.1.2 H 公司资源与能力 .................................................................................................. 15 2.1.3 项目简介................................................................................................................. 16 2.1.4 项目实施方案......................................................................................................... 18 2.2 宏观环境分析（PEST） .............................................................................................. 18 2.2.1 政策环境分析......................................................................................................... 18 2.2.2 经济环境分析......................................................................................................... 20 2.2.3 社会环境分析......................................................................................................... 21 2.2.4 技术环境分析......................................................................................................... 22 2.3 竞争环境分析................................................................................................................ 23 2.3.1 潜在竞争者进入能力............................................................................................. 23V 2.3.2 替代品的替代能力................................................................................................. 23 2.3.3 现有竞争者的能力................................................................................................. 24 2.3.4 供应商的议价能力................................................................................................. 25 2.3.5 顾客的议价能力..................................................................................................... 26 2.4 项目 SWOT 分析 .......................................................................................................... 26 2.4.1 优势（Strengths）.................................................................................................. 26 2.4.2 劣势（Weaknesses）.............................................................................................. 27 2.4.3 机会（Opportunities）........................................................................................... 27 2.4.4 威胁（Threats）..................................................................................................... 28 2.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 28 第三章 项目定位与规划........................................................................................................30 3.1 项目开发战略................................................................................................................ 30 3.2 项目定位........................................................................................................................ 30 3.2.1 目标市场................................................................................................................. 30 3.2.2 目标客户................................................................................................................. 31 3.3 项目规划........................................................................................................................ 32 3.3.1 规划原则与目标..................................................................................................... 32 3.3.2 建设规模................................................................................................................. 33 3.3.3 筹建进度安排......................................................................................................... 33 3.3.4 建设周期................................................................................................................. 33 3.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 34 第四章 营销策略设计............................................................................................................35 4.1 项目营销策略设计思路................................................................................................ 35 4.2 办公物业营销策略........................................................................................................ 36 4.2.1 销售模式设计......................................................................................................... 36 4.2.2 价格预测与分析..................................................................................................... 36 4.3 商铺营销策略................................................................................................................ 37 4.3.1 销售模式设计......................................................................................................... 37 4.3.2 价格预测与分析..................................................................................................... 37 4.4 公寓营销策略................................................................................................................ 37VI 4.4.1 销售模式设计......................................................................................................... 37 4.4.2 价格预测与分析..................................................................................................... 39 4.5 工业厂房销售策略........................................................................................................ 39 4.5.1 销售模式设计......................................................................................................... 39 4.5.2 价格预测与分析..................................................................................................... 40 4.6 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 40 第五章 运营策略设计............................................................................................................41 5.1 项目开发与经营模式.................................................................................................... 41 5.2 项目的组织管理及部门职能........................................................................................ 42 5.3 人力资源规划................................................................................................................ 43 5.3.1 人员招聘................................................................................................................. 43 5.3.2 员工培训................................................................................................................. 44 5.3.3 薪酬福利................................................................................................................. 44 5.3.4 绩效管理................................................................................................................. 45 5.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 46 第六章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................47 6.1 项目建设技术经济指标................................................................................................ 47 6.2 投资收益模式分析........................................................................................................ 47 6.2.1 土地溢价增值获利................................................................................................. 47 6.2.2 定制工业地产......................................................................................................... 48 6.2.3 长期持有经营收益或出售产品............................................................................. 48 6.2.4 风投模式................................................................................................................. 48 6.2.5 入园企业经营税收................................................................................................. 48 6.2.6 运营管理................................................................................................................. 49 6.2.7 自投项目经营收益................................................................................................. 49 6.3 投资估算........................................................................................................................ 49 6.3.1 估算编制依据及说明............................................................................................. 49 6.3.2 资金筹措与投资使用计划..................................................................................... 49 6.3.3 投资估算结果及说明............................................................................................. 50 6.4 项目收入估算................................................................................................................ 52VII 6.4.1 商铺租赁收入估算................................................................................................. 52 6.4.2 办公租赁收入估算................................................................................................. 53 6.4.3 公寓租赁收入估算................................................................................................. 54 6.4.4 厂房租赁收入估算................................................................................................. 55 6.4.5 收入估算结果汇总及说明..................................................................................... 56 6.5 项目财务评价................................................................................................................ 57 6.5.1 财务评价依据、原则及假设条件......................................................................... 57 6.5.2 基础数据的选取..................................................................................................... 58 6.5.3 盈利能力及清偿能力分析..................................................................................... 58 6.5.4 财务评价指标......................................................................................................... 61 6.6 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 61 第七章 项目风险分析与控制................................................................................................62 7.1 政策风险与对策............................................................................................................ 62 7.2 管理风险与对策............................................................................................................ 62 7.3 经营风险与对策............................................................................................................ 63 7.3.1 资金风险与对策..................................................................................................... 63 7.3.2 工程与技术风险..................................................................................................... 63 7.3.3 投资估算的风险..................................................................................................... 64 7.4 市场风险与对策............................................................................................................ 64 7.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 65 结 论........................................................................................................................................66