经济全球化是目前全球经济的趋势及重要的特征，世界各国的联系也因经济全球 化越来越紧密。在 2013 年，我国提出了“一带一路”的战略，中国的企业纷纷选择 “走出去”战略来增强企业自身的竞争力，但是世界各国存在着语言、文化、政治、 环境、经济状况等的差异，对于光伏企业来说，进行海外的项目投资还是存在着非常 大的风险。因此，对于光伏企业来说，对海外项目风险识别、评价以及制定应对措施 就变得非常有意义。 中国的光伏行业发展迅猛，国内总装机量排全球前列，但企业对于海外项目的投 资尚处于比较前期的阶段，国内企业不仅要考虑海外项目投资收益，同时也要深思海 外投资过程中可能面临的各种风险。国内企业海外投资失败的案例也比比皆是，而导 致企业海外投资失败重要的原因是对于海外投资的风险控制体系不够成熟。 本论文第一章首先详述了撰写的背景、要研究的内容以及目前我国企业对海外投 资的现状同时对以往国内外专家对企业海外投资的理论研究进行概述和分析。第二章 对企业风险管理理论进行了论述，同时风险管理理论也是此论文的支撑。第三章对 LY 光伏企业的内部和外部的环境进行分析，同时诊断和列出了目前 LY 光伏企业在海 外项目风险管控方面的问题。第四、五、六章重点对海外项目的风险识别、评价和风 险的应对进行了具体的分析，论述了风险识别的方法，光伏企业在做海外项目时的具 体风险点，利用模糊综合评价法对海外项目风险进行评价，并在做出风险等级评估后， 提出和实施海外项目投资风险的应对策略，为我国光伏企业今后在海外项目投资的活 动中提供一定的参考。 关键词，风险识别；风险评价；风险应对； 海外项目投资III Abstract With the deepening development of global economy, all countries in the world are more and more closely linked. In 2013, China put forward the strategy of The belt and road strategy, Chinese enterprises have chosen go out strategy to enhance their own competitiveness. However, there are differences in language, culture, politics, environment and economic conditions in all countries of the world. For photovoltaic enterprises, the risk is still massive for overseas projects investment. Therefore, for photovoltaic enterprises, risk identification, evaluation and formulation of countermeasures for overseas projects become very meaningful. China's photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, and its domestic total installed capacity for solar project ranks top 1 in the world. However, the investment of enterprises in overseas projects is still at a relatively early stage. Domestic enterprises should not only consider the return of investment in overseas projects, but also consider the risks that may be faced in the process of overseas investment. There are many failure cases of overseas investment of domestic enterprises, and the main reason for failure of overseas investment is that the risk control system of overseas investment is not mature enough. In the first chapter, the paper expatiate the background of writing, the content to be studied and the current situation of Chinese enterprises' overseas investment are described in detail. At the same time, the theoretical research of enterprises' overseas investment by domestic and foreign experts is summarized and analyzed. In the second chapter, the theory of enterprise risk management is discussed. At the same time, the theory of risk management is also the support theory of this paper. In the third chapter, the internal and external environment of LY photovoltaic enterprises are analyzed. Then, the problems of risk management and control of LY photovoltaic enterprises in overseas projects are diagnosed and listed. Chapters 4, 5 and 6 focus on the risk identification, evaluation and risk response of overseas projects. The methods of risk identification are discussed. The specific risk points of photovoltaic enterprises in overseas projects are discussed. The riskIV of overseas projects is evaluated by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and the risk grade is evaluated. This paper puts forward and implements the countermeasures of overseas project investment risk, and provides some reference for the future overseas project investment activities of photovoltaic enterprises in China. Keywords: Risk Identification; Risk Assessment; Risk Response; Overseas Project Investment目录 致谢.........................................................................................................................................I 摘要.......................................................................................................................................II Abstract ................................................................................................................................ III 第 1 章 绪论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 ..................................................................................................................1 1.2 研究内容 .................................................................................................................2 1.3 国内外研究现状 .....................................................................................................2 1.3.1 企业基础设施项目海外投资相关研究...........................................................2 1.3.2 海外投资风险管理的相关研究.......................................................................4 1.3.3 文献评述...........................................................................................................5 1.4 研究目的和研究意义 ..............................................................................................6 1.4.1 研究目的..........................................................................................................6 1.4.2 研究意义..........................................................................................................6 1.5 研究方法 .................................................................................................................7 1.5.1 文献研究法.......................................................................................................7 1.5.2 模糊综合评价法...............................................................................................7 1.5.3 专家打分法.......................................................................................................7 1.6 研究创新点 .............................................................................................................8 1.7 技术路线 .................................................................................................................8 第 2 章 相关理论基础..........................................................................................................9 2.1 企业风险管理理论 .................................................................................................9 2.2 相关概念界定 ........................................................................................................11 2.2.1 风险的概念.................................................................................................... 11 2.2.2 海外投资项目风险管理的概念....................................................................12 2.3 风险识别 ................................................................................................................12 2.3.1 风险识别的含义.............................................................................................12 2.3.2 风险识别的原则.............................................................................................122.3.3 风险识别的方法............................................................................................13 2.4 风险评价 ...............................................................................................................14 2.4.1 风险评价概述.................................................................................................14 2.4.2 风险评价方法.................................................................................................14 2.4.3 风险评价的流程............................................................................................15 第 3 章 LY 光伏企业海外投资风险管理的现状与存在的问题.....................................16 3.1 外部环境分析 .......................................................................................................16 3.1.1 我国光伏行业现状........................................................................................16 3.1.2 我国光伏企业海外投资情况........................................................................17 3.2 内部环境分析 .......................................................................................................18 3.2.1 LY 光伏企业介绍...........................................................................................18 3.2.2 LY 光伏企业海外投资的动因.......................................................................19 3.2.3 LY 光伏企业海外投资的现状.......................................................................19 3.3 LY 光伏企业海外投资风险管理的问题 ..............................................................19 3.3.1 对海外风险的识别的不全面.........................................................................20 3.3.2 风险评价的方法不系统.................................................................................20 3.3.3 风险应对的措施不够准确且科学.................................................................20 第 4 章 LY 光伏企业海外投资风险的识别.....................................................................21 4.1 投资决策体系建设 ...............................................................................................21 4.2 企业外部风险识别 ...............................................................................................22 4.2.1 政治风险........................................................................................................22 4.2.2 法律风险........................................................................................................23 4.3 企业内部风险识别 ...............................................................................................24 4.3.1 财务风险.........................................................................................................24 4.3.2 运营风险.........................................................................................................25 4.3.3 技术风险.........................................................................................................27 第 5 章 模糊综合评价法在海外投资风险评价中的应用................................................30 5.1 基于模糊综合评价法的风险评价 .......................................................................305.1.1 模糊综合评价法的引入................................................................................30 5.1.2 模糊综合评价法指标体系构建原则............................................................30 5.2 构建海外投资风险模糊评价模型 .......................................................................31 5.2.1 建立评价指标体系........................................................................................31 5.2.2 确定风险水平的评价标准............................................................................31 5.2.3 确定各风险指标的权重................................................................................32 5.2.4 二级指标的评价............................................................................................33 5.2.5 风险综合评价................................................................................................34 5.3 基于西班牙项目的评价指标模拟 .......................................................................34 5.3.1 项目背景........................................................................................................34 5.3.2 基于模糊综合评价法的西班牙项目风险评价.............................................35 5.3.3 风险综合评估.................................................................................................40 第 6 章 LY 光伏企业海外投资的风险应对措施.............................................................41 6.1 海外项目投资风险的应对 ...................................................................................41 6.2 应对的原则及策略 ...............................................................................................41 6.2.1 风险应对的原则............................................................................................41 6.2.2 风险应对的策略.............................................................................................42 6.3 LY 光伏企业风险应对的具体措施 ......................................................................43 6.3.1 投资企业对内部风险的应对措施................................................................43 6.3.2 投资企业对外部风险的应对措施................................................................45 第 7 章 结语........................................................................................................................47 7.1 总结 .......................................................................................................................47 7.2 局限性 ...................................................................................................................47 7.3 展望 .......................................................................................................................48