可行性研究是在投资决策之前，对拟建项目所进行的建设必要性、经济合理性、技 术可行性及实施可能性的论证，从而为投资决策提供科学依据的一项重要工作。倒淌河 镇是青海省海南州藏族自治州州府所在地，是全州政治、经济、文化科技中心，倒淌河 镇道路的改造实施，对切实改善倒淌河镇镇容镇貌，提高倒淌河城镇道路的建设品味和 质量，充分发挥倒淌河镇的辐射带动和综合服务功能，积极创建国家级文明城镇，全面 提升全国爱国主义教育示范基地的对外良好形象都具有十分重要的意义。 报告以倒淌河镇至茶卡镇道路工程为项目背景，进行了公路工程可行性研究报告编 制所需主要理论知识的研究。报告提出了价值工程理论及综合模糊评判法在路线方案比 选中的应用；分析了道路远景交通量构成，研究了根据区域经济交通发展的现状特征分 析的交通量 OD 预测方法；通过国民经济评价效益评估中，研究确定了公路工程可行性 的经济效益内容，解决了经济效益计算中的难以定量的问题。最后以海南州藏族自治州 下达的《倒淌河镇道路工程可行性研究报告委托书》为依据完成了倒淌河镇道路工程可 行性研究报告的编制。 报告通过主要相关理论知识的研究，为公路工程可行性研究报告的编制提供了理论 基础，这些理论、模型与方法具有较高的理论和实践价值。工程可行性研究报告成果论 证了倒淌河镇至茶卡镇道路工程建设的必要性、经济的合理性、技术的可行性以及实施 的可能性，为项目决策提供了科学依据。 关键词：工程；可行性；研究II Abstract The feasibility study is before investment is decision-making, carried out on the construction project construction necessity, economic rationality, technical feasibility and feasibility argumentation, thus providing an important scientific basis for investment decision-making. Inverted town in Qinghai Province, Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture is located, Quanzhou is the political, economic, and cultural center of science and technology, implementation of the transformation of inverted Town Road, to effectively improve the Daotang he Zhen Zhen Rong Zhen appearance, improve the taste and quality of Daotang River Road, give full play to Daotang River radiation drive and comprehensive service functions, actively create a national civilized town, has a very important significance in improving the national patriotism education demonstration base for a good image. Paper card town road project as the project background to trickle down town to tea, the report of feasibility study on highway engineering required to study theoretical knowledge. This paper puts forward the value engineering theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the route scheme than the selected application; analysis of composition of the road traffic volume, forecasting method based on traffic volume OD status analysis of traffic characteristics of regional economic development of the national economy evaluation; benefit assessment, research to determine the content of economic benefits of highway engineering feasibility to solve the calculation, economic benefits in several typical difficult to quantitative problems. Finally, taking Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, issued the trickle down the road engineering feasibility study report town attorney as the basis to complete the preparation of feasibility study report Daotang River Road engineering This paper mainly studies the theory of knowledge, and provides a theoretical basis for the preparation of highway project feasibility study report, the theory, model and method has great value in theory and practice. The feasibility study report of the project results demonstrated the Daotang town to Chaka town road project construction necessity, economic rationality, technical feasibility and possibility of the implementation, and provides scientific basis for the project decision. Key words: Engineering；Feasibility；ResearchIII 目 录 第一章 概 述.......................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景，意义和目的........................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景 ......................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究目的 ......................................................................................................1 1.1.3 研究意义 ......................................................................................................2 1.2 国内研究现状...........................................................................................................2 1.2.1 公路设计理念方面 .......................................................................................2 1.2.2 路线选择方面 ..............................................................................................3 1.2.3 技术设计方面 ...............................................................................................3 1.2.4 环境保护方面 ...............................................................................................4 1.3 国外研究现状...........................................................................................................5 1.4 研究思路...................................................................................................................7 1.5 研究内容...................................................................................................................8 第二章 区域的社会经济交通运输现状分析.......................................................................9 2.1 路线区域概况...........................................................................................................9 2.2 区域社会经济发展现状调查....................................................................................9 2.2.1.西宁 ...............................................................................................................9 2.2.2 共和县 ...........................................................................................................9 2.2.3 海南藏族自治州 .........................................................................................10 2.2.4 海西州 .........................................................................................................10 2.2.5 格尔木 .........................................................................................................10 2.3.区域交通运输现状调查..........................................................................................10 2.4 区域交通经济发展预测.........................................................................................11 2.4.1 区域交通发展预测 ....................................................................................11 2.4.2 区域经济发展预测 ....................................................................................12 2.5 本章小结.................................................................................................................13 第三章 交通量需求分析及发展预测.................................................................................14 3.1 远景交通量构成分析.............................................................................................14 3.2 交通量预测思路及方法.........................................................................................14 3.2.1 小区发生吸引交通量预测 ........................................................................14IV 3.2.2 趋势型交通量分布预测 ............................................................................ 15 3.2.3 诱增型交通量分布预测 ............................................................................ 16 3.2.4 通道交通总量分配预测 ............................................................................ 17 3.3 交通量预测方法 ..................................................................................................... 19 3.4 调查数据统计分析 ................................................................................................. 21 3.4.1 断面交通量观测 ......................................................................................... 21 3.5 OD 调查与分析....................................................................................................... 22 3.6 交通量预测 ............................................................................................................. 23 3.7 交通量预测结果 ..................................................................................................... 24 3.8 本章小结 ................................................................................................................ 24 第四章 区域的建设条件、技术标准及方案选择的研究................................................25 4.1 区域自然状况 ......................................................................................................... 25 4.2 区域不良地质及水文状况分析 ............................................................................. 25 4.2.1 不良地质状况分析 ..................................................................................... 25 4.2.2 特殊地质状况分析 ..................................................................................... 26 4.3 路线方案选择的原则与主要控制因素 ................................................................. 27 4.3.1 路线方案选择的原则 ................................................................................. 27 4.3.2 路线方案选择的主要控制因素 ................................................................. 28 4.4 路线方案比选论证 ................................................................................................ 28 4.4.1 倒淌河过境段 ............................................................................................ 29 4.4.2 倒淌河至尕海滩段 .................................................................................... 30 4.4.3 倒淌河至大水桥段 .................................................................................... 31 4.4.4 交通组织方案研究 .................................................................................... 33 4.5 推荐路线方案走向及主要控制点 ......................................................................... 34 4.6 本章小结 ................................................................................................................. 36 第五章 经济效益评价 ........................................................................................................37 5.1 投资估算................................................................................................................. 37 5.1.1 各项费率及费用情况 ............................................................................... 37 5.1.2 投资估算金额及主要人工、材料数量 .................................................. 39 5.2 国民经济评价 ........................................................................................................ 39 5.2.1 评价参数 .................................................................................................... 39V 5.2.2 费用调整 ....................................................................................................40 5.2.3 汽车运输成本调整 ....................................................................................42 5.2.4 效益计算 ....................................................................................................42 5.2.5 国民经济评价结果 ....................................................................................44 5.2.6 敏感性分析 ................................................................................................45 5.3 财务评价...............................................................................................................45 5.3.1 财务费用调整 ............................................................................................45 5.3.2 财务折现率 ................................................................................................45 5.3.3 营业税与所得税 ........................................................................................45 5.3.4 公积金与公益金 ........................................................................................45 5.3.5 收费标准 ....................................................................................................45 5.3.6 财务评价结果 ............................................................................................46 5.3.7 财务敏感性分析 ........................................................................................47 5.3.8 贷款偿还能力分析 ....................................................................................47 5.4 本章小结...............................................................................................................51 第六章 工程实施方案...........................................................................................................52 6.1 工程特点..................................................................................................................52 6.2 施工条件.................................................................................................................52 6.2.1. 气候条件及工作生活环境 .......................................................................52 6.2.2. 外购材料及运输 .......................................................................................53 6.2.3.社会运力与劳动力情况 .............................................................................53 6.2.4. 社会环境 ...................................................................................................53 6.3 统筹安排.................................................................................................................53 6.4 本章小结.................................................................................................................54 结论与进一步研究.................................................................................................................55