近年来，随着中国市场经济的飞速发展，在国家的政策指导下，中国的金融市场的 发展也在加速前进，在银行业，客户办理业务越来越方便，实行了跨省跨区办理业务， 同行跨地区取款免费等一些优惠便民措施；在证券、基金、股票等行业，投资理财的渠 道更广泛便捷。不需再去网点进行现场操作，网上操作一键就搞定，一些方便快捷的开 户、买入、卖出等便民服务如雨后春笋般出现。 随着国家金融行业的大热，为金融企业提供后台系统服务的供应商--HS 公司，其在 A 股市场中的股票市值近年来一直在快速攀升。以公司的股票目前的价格来计算市盈率， 其 P/E 接近 60 倍，而银行业的市盈率才只是个位数，与银行业对比，HS 企业的估值是 否过高呢，由于现阶段全球经济处于相对低迷时期，A 股市场的股票基本都处于跌跌不 休的状态，而 HS 公司却一反市场常态，不跌反升，因此关心公司价值的机构投资者就 迫切希望知道公司的实际价值到底是多少，这时就需要对 HS 公司的企业价值进行评价 与估计。本文以 HS 公司为例，运用剩余收益模型对其进行价值评估 。 论文首先介绍了企业价值评估方法，对剩余收益模型做了更深一步的论述。然后对 HS 公司的性质进行了研究，HS 公司是一件金融系统软件服务企业。系统软件的性质决 定了其很难被更换，只能不断的升级，导致 HS 公司在面对客户的时候，具有强势的市 场地位。HS 公司实际上拥有锁定客户的权力，表现在财务上，就是其超过 90%的毛利 率。 然后是运用剩余收益模型对 HS 公司进行全面的价值评估。运用剩余收益模型估计 出 HS公司的内在价值为，在 2018 年 12 月 31 日时点的实体价值V 2018 NOA 为 732.40 亿元，HS 公司的股权价值为 721.24 亿元。截止 2018 年 12 月 31 日，HS 公司共发行股 票 6.18 亿股，则 HS 公司股票的内在价值为 116.71 元。运用剩余收益模型对 HS 公司内 在价值评估的结果比当前价格 97.33 元高出 19.91%。最后，论文将运用剩余收益模型得 出的HS公司内在价值评估结果与HS股票市场价格进行对比分析，供投资者进行参考。 本文的研究具有投资实践上的意义，既可以为机构投资者提供操作指引和决策依据， 也可以为其他投资者决策提供必要的选择依据。 关键词，股票估值 剩余收益模型 比率分析II Abstract In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, with the guidance of the state's policies, the development of China's financial market is also accelerating: in the banking industry, customers are more and more convenient to handle business, and cross-provincial cross-regional business is implemented. In the securities, funds, stocks and other industries, the channels for investment and wealth management are more extensive and convenient. There is no need to go to the outlets for on-site operation, and the online operation can be done with one click. Some convenient and convenient services such as opening an account, buying, selling, etc. have sprung up. With the great heat of the national financial industry, the HS company, which provides back-end system services for financial enterprises, its stock market value in the A-share market has been rising rapidly in recent years. Calculating the P/E ratio based on the current price of the company's stock, its P/E is close to 60 times, and the P/E ratio of the banking industry is only a single digit. Compared with the banking industry, is the valuation of HS companies too highSince the global economy is in a relatively low period at this stage, the stocks in the A-share market are basically in a state of falling, and the HS company is anti-market normal, and does not fall and rise. Therefore, institutional investors who care about the value of the company are eager to know. What is the actual value of the companyAt this time, it is necessary to evaluate and estimate the corporate value of the HS company. This paper takes HS company as an example and uses the residual income model to evaluate its value. The paper first introduces the enterprise value assessment method and makes a deeper discussion on the residual income model. Then the nature of HS company was studied. HS company is a financial system software service enterprise. The nature of the system software determines that it is difficult to be replaced, and can only be continuously upgraded, resulting in a strong market position for HS companies in the face of customers. HS actually has the power to lock in customers, which is financially significant, which is its gross margin of over 90%. Then use the residual income model to conduct a comprehensive value assessment of HS companies. The residual income model is used to estimate the intrinsic value of the HS company: the entity value V2018NOA at the time of December 31, 2018 is 73.240 billion yuan, and the equity value of the HS company is 72.124 billion yuan. As of December 31, 2018, the HS company issued a total of 618 million shares, the intrinsic value of the HSIII company's stock was 116.71 yuan. The result of using the residual income model to evaluate the intrinsic value of HS companies is 19.91% higher than the current price of 97.33 yuan. Finally, the paper will use the residual income model to compare the intrinsic value evaluation results of HS companies with the HS stock market prices for investors to refer to. The research in this paper has the significance of investment practice, which can provide institutional investors with operational guidance and decision-making basis, and can also provide necessary selection basis for other investors' decision-making. Key Words: Stock Valuation, Residual Income Model, Ratio AnalysisIV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... II 图表清单.....................................................................................................................................I 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义.......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述...................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 研究内容与方法.......................................................................................................... 4 1.3.1 研究内容............................................................................................................ 4 1.3.2 研究方法............................................................................................................ 4 1.4 研究思路与论文结构.................................................................................................. 5 1.4.1 研究思路............................................................................................................ 5 1.4.2 论文结构............................................................................................................ 7 1.5 本文的关键概念.......................................................................................................... 7 1.5.1 三个价值的概念................................................................................................ 7 1.5.2 剩余收益模型和剩余经营收益模型................................................................ 8 第二章 公司价值评估方法和剩余收益模型的适用性..........................................................9 2.1 HS 公司的特点............................................................................................................. 9 2.2 企业价值评估方法的比较......................................................................................... 10 2.3 剩余经营收益模型的基本原理................................................................................ 12 2.4 运用剩余经营收益模型进行估值的一般步骤......................................................... 12 2.5 本章小结.................................................................................................................... 16 第三章 HS 公司商业分析......................................................................................................17 3.1 HS 公司宏观环境分析............................................................................................... 17 3.1.1 政治因素分析................................................................................................... 17 3.1.2 经济因素分析................................................................................................... 18 3.1.3 社会文化因素分析.......................................................................................... 18 3.1.4 技术因素分析................................................................................................... 18 3.2 行业环境分析............................................................................................................ 19 3.2.1 需求分析........................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2 竞争分析.......................................................................................................... 19V 3.3 HS 公司内部条件分析............................................................................................... 20 3.3.1 产品和服务....................................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 科技研发能力.................................................................................................. 22 3.3.3 管理能力和成本控制能力.............................................................................. 23 3.3.4 潜在风险防控................................................................................................... 23 3.4 本章小结.................................................................................................................... 23 第四章 财务报表调整与估值参数的确定............................................................................24 4.1 HS 公司财务报表调整............................................................................................... 24 4.1.1 对 HS 公司财务报表进行调整的原因............................................................ 25 4.1.2 调整 HS 公司利润表........................................................................................ 26 4.1.3 调整 HS 公司资产负债表............................................................................... 28 4.2 未来绩效预测............................................................................................................. 28 4.2.1 高速增长期的确定........................................................................................... 29 4.2.2 持续增长率的确定........................................................................................... 31 4.2.3 税后经营收益率分析....................................................................................... 31 4.3 估值参数的确定........................................................................................................ 32 4.3.1 高速增长期营业收入增长率的确定.............................................................. 32 4.3.2 与剩余经营收益有关的财务比率的确定...................................................... 33 4.2.3 经营资本成本 r 的确定................................................................................... 37 4.4 本章小结.................................................................................................................... 39 第五章 HS 公司剩余经营收益和内在价值计算..................................................................40 5.1 各年剩余经营收益的计算........................................................................................ 40 5.2 内在价值的计算........................................................................................................ 41 5.3 评估结果分析............................................................................................................ 42 5.4 本章小结.................................................................................................................... 43 结 论........................................................................................................................................44