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2020年云南省玉米天气指数保险可行性研究报告DOC

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I 摘要 玉米作为云南省占据重要地位的主粮食作物,气象灾害是云南玉米种植所遭 受的主要风险,云南玉米种植产业的发展与安全关系到云南省粮食安全,并且和 粮、经、饲三元化种植结构的构建息息相关。但是,现阶段传统农业保险是以弥 补农作物种植产业的物化成本为主,一直面临着保障程度低、保障范围不全面等 问题。2007年是云南省启动政策性农业保险试点的时间,保费规模高速增长。但 是传统农业保险在经营过程中也暴露出不少问题,尤其是在近几年农作物遭受干 旱等气象灾害的情况下,云南政策性农业保险在救灾、迅速恢复再生产等方面运 作效率低迷,没有很好的发挥出专属于保险业的损失补偿和保险保障功能。 与当前正在运行的传统农业保险相比,天气指数保险在解决道德风险和逆向 选择问题上可以发挥出更大作用,还拥有运营管理成本低,保险合同标准化以及 理赔流程简便等独特优点。因此,为对云南玉米种植业提供更全面的风险保障, 本文落点于云南省的玉米种植产业,来对云南省玉米天气指数保险的可行性进行 研究。 本文主要采用文献分析、案例分析、实地调研等研究方法,论证云南省发展 玉米天气指数保险的诸多必要条件,从而探讨其可行性。 本文的主要研究内容和结论: 第一,玉米作为云南省种植面积第一大,产量第二大的主粮食作物,在云 南省委省政府加快建设高原特色农业产业的背景下,在政策支持、市场完备性以 及投保人需求等可行性条件的支持下,选择玉米作为天气指数保险试点品种,具摘要 II 有可行性与前瞻性。 第二,对当前国内外开展天气指数保险的先进经验进行总结分析,为云南省 玉米气象指数保险的开展提供了一定的借鉴,并提出了应该重点防范天气指数保 险开展过程中的重点问题基差风险。 第三,对传统农险开始试点直到现在的云南玉米种植保险的运作情况及弱点 作出分析,进而挖掘出传统农业保险发展面临的困境及开展天气指数保险的必要 性。 第四,从政策分析、需求调查分析与供给分析三个方面进行了云南玉米天气 指数保险可行性条件分析。调查结果显示,天气指数保险对传统农业保险具有比 较强的互补性,农户们对购买天气指数保险的态度相对积极,市场潜力大。供给 侧分析显示目前开展天气指数保险的技术已经成熟、市场潜力大,且玉米天气指 数保险产品具有不可复制性,可以为保险公司带来许多积极效应。综上所述,云 南玉米天气指数保险的开展已经具备可行性。 关键词:玉米天气指数保险;可行性研究;政策环境;需求分析;供给分析Abstract III Feasibility study on maize Drought index insurance in Yunnan province Ji Sichen Master of Insurance Directed by Professor Li Yunxian Abstract As the main food crop that plays an important role in Yunnan Province, meteorological disasters are the main risk of Yunnan corn planting. The development and safety of Yunnan corn planting industry are related to food security in Yunnan Province, and ternary planting with grain, meridian and forage. The construction of the structure is closely related. However, at this stage, traditional agricultural insurance is mainly to compensate for the materialized cost of the crop planting industry, and has always faced problems such as low level of protection and incomplete coverage. In 2007, it was the time for Yunnan Province to launch a pilot agricultural insurance program, and the scale of premiums increased rapidly. However, traditional agricultural insurance has also exposed many problems in the operation process. Especially in the case of meteorological disasters such as drought in recent years, Yunnan policy agricultural insurance has been inefficient in disaster relief and rapid recovery and reproduction. Good performance of the loss compensation and insurance protection functions that are exclusively for the insurance industry. Compared with the traditional agricultural insurance that is currently running, weather index insurance can play a greater role in solving moral hazard and adverseAbstract IV selection problems. It also has unique advantages such as low operating management costs, standardized insurance contracts and simple claims processing. Therefore, in order to provide more comprehensive risk protection for Yunnan corn planting industry, this paper is located in the corn planting industry in Yunnan Province to study the feasibility of Yunnan corn weather index insurance. The main research contents and conclusions of this paper: First, corn, as the largest grain crop in Yunnan Province with the largest planting area and the second largest output, is under the background of the Yunnan Provincial Party Committee and the provincial government to accelerate the construction of a plateau-specific agricultural industry, in terms of policy support, market integrity and the needs of policyholders. With the support of feasibility conditions, it is feasible and forward-looking to choose corn as a pilot of weather index insurance. Secondly, it summarizes and analyzes the current advanced experience of weather index insurance at home and abroad, and provides some reference for the development of Yunnan corn meteorological index insurance, and puts forward the key issues in the process of implementing weather index insurance. Poor risk. Thirdly, it analyzes the operation and weaknesses of traditional agricultural insurance pilots until now, and then explores the difficulties faced by traditional agricultural insurance development and the necessity of carrying out weather index insurance. Fourthly, the feasibility analysis of Yunnan corn weather index insurance isAbstract V carried out from three aspects: policy analysis, demand survey analysis and supply analysis. The survey results show that weather index insurance has strong complementarity to traditional agricultural insurance, and farmers have a relatively positive attitude towards the purchase of weather index insurance, and the market potential is large. The supply-side analysis shows that the current technology for weather index insurance is mature and has great market potential, and the corn weather index insurance products are non-replicable and can bring many positive effects to insurance companies. In summary, the development of Yunnan corn weather index insurance is already feasible. Key words: corn weather index insurance; feasibility study; policy environment; demand analysis; supply points目录 VI 目 录 摘要................................................................................................................................I Abstract.............................................. III 第一章 引言............................................. 1 第一节 研究背景及意义 ...........................................1 第二节 研究现状 .................................................3 一、国外研究现状 ........................................................3 二、国内研究现状 ........................................................5 第三节 研究思路与方法 ...........................................7 一、研究思路 ............................................................7 二、研究方法 ............................................................8 第四节 研究内容与结构 ...........................................9 第二章 国内外天气指数保险实践经验借鉴 .................. 11 第一节 天气指数保险相关概念 .....................................11 一、天气指数保险 .......................................................11 二、天气指数保险的优势与缺陷............................................12 第二节 国外天气指数保险实践经验 ................................14 第三节 国内天气指数保险实践经验 ................................17 第四节 天气指数保险实践经验总结 ................................19 第三章 云南省开展玉米天气指数保险的必要性............... 22 第一节 云南省玉米种植业基本情况 ................................22 一、云南省玉米种植业现状 ...............................................22 二、云南省玉米主产区 ...................................................24 三、云南玉米的生长规律 .................................................25目录 VII 第二节 云南省玉米种植风险分析 ...................................26 第三节 云南开展玉米天气指数保险的必要性分析 ....................28 一、传统农业保险政策协调与精准预算难,政府补贴粗放......................28 二、保险公司定损理赔难 .................................................30 三、道德风险与逆向选择 .................................................31 第四章 云南开展玉米天气指数保险的可行条件分析.......... 33 第一节 政策环境分析 ............................................33 第二节 市场需求分析——基于问卷调查 ............................36 一、调查数据基本情况分析 ...............................................36 二、农户对气象灾害的认知分析............................................38 三、农户对天气指数保险的认知分析........................................39 四、农户对天气指数保险产品的需求分析....................................40 第三节 云南开展玉米天气指数保险的供给分析 .......................43 一、开展天气指数保险的技术已成熟........................................43 二、市场潜力巨大 .......................................................44 三、保险公司具有开展天气指数保险的积极性................................45 第五章 结论............................................ 48