I 摘要 近几年来，为了防止房屋价格的过快上涨，我国出台了限制购买、限制贷款 的“双限”政策以来，房地产市场中商品住宅的销售量在近几年来持续下行，大量房 地产开发企业由于不能如期销售产品保证现金流而倒闭。另一方面，大量商业地 产项目在一、二、三线城市中如雨后春笋般拔地而起，大量二、三线城市的商业 容量已经远远超出其能够承载的体量。商业地产项目之间的竞争、实体商业受到 电子商务的冲击、后期的运营管理混乱等，导致失败的商业地产项目比比皆是。 R 县城西城市综合体房地产项目是包含住宅和商业地产的项目，本文结合该项 目的实际情况，利用相关理论和经济评价的方法，对该项目的可行性进行探讨。 首先，本文提出了本研究的背景和研究意义；对国外和国内相关研究理论和 研究现状进行了文献综述；介绍了本文的研究内容和文章结构安排。 之后，本文对“R 县城西城市综合体房地产项目”项目所在地区的实际情况进行 了概述，描述了当地经济情况、政策、规划，调查了当地的市场，分析了类似国 内的案例，对项目的投资机会和初步可行性进行了分析。 最后，本文对“R 县城西城市综合体房地产项目”进行了详细可行性分析。通过 对项目的定位、物业产品的定位和规划、商业业态的确定和租户调查，推导出了 本项目的各物业品类体量，进而对该项目的各类物业定价及经济效益进行测算和 评价。 本文对该房地产项目的开发可行性分析，可以为同类房地产开发项目的提供 参考，减少开发风险。 关键词，房地产开发，可行性分析，商业决策ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT In recent years, in order to prevent the housing price from rising too fast, China has introduced restrictions on the purchase, limit loans double limit policy, commercial housing sales in the real estate market in recent years continued downward, a large number of real estate development enterprises closed down because of unable to sell their products to ensure cash flow. On the other hand, a large number of commercial real estate projects in one or two, three line city in up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain, a large number of the two or three line of the city's commercial capacity has far exceeded the capacity of the body. Later, the competition between the commercial real estate project entity business by the impact of e-commerce, management confusion, leading to failure of the commercial real estate projects meet the eye everywhere. R County West City complex real estate projects include residential and commercial real estate projects, this paper combined with the actual situation of the project, by using the theory and method of economic evaluation, to discuss the feasibility of the project. First of all, this paper puts forward the background and significance of this study; the related domestic and foreign research status of theory and research conducted a literature review; introduces the research content and structure of this paper. In this paper, the actual situation of R County in the West City complex real estate project project area are summarized, described the local economic situation, policy, planning, survey of the local market, analyzes the domestic similar cases, the project investment opportunities and preliminary feasibility analysis. Finally, this paper carried out a detailed feasibility analysis of R County in the West City complex real estate projects . By identifying and positioning of the project, the tenants on the property of products and planning, commercial property category, derived from the volume of the project, and the measurement and evaluation of the project and the economic benefits of all types of property pricing. Analysis of the feasibility of the development of real estate projects, can for similar real estate development projects to provide a reference, to reduce the development risk. Keywords: Real estate development, Feasibility analysis, Business decision目录 III 目 录 第一章 绪 论.................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 选题的背景和意义................................................................................................. 1 1.2 研究内容及研究框架............................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 研究内容和方法.............................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 研究框架.......................................................................................................... 3 第二章 相关理论及研究观点回顾................................................................................ 5 2.1 房地产开发项目可行性的国内外研究状况......................................................... 5 2.1.1 国外研究现状.................................................................................................. 5 2.1.2 国内研究现状.................................................................................................. 6 2.2 房地产开发项目可行性研究的概念和特点........................................................ 7 2.3 房地产开发项目可行性分析的步骤和内容........................................................ 8 2.3.1 可行性分析的步骤......................................................................................... 8 2.3.2 可行性分析的工作阶段................................................................................. 9 2.3.3 可行性分析的内容....................................................................................... 10 2.4 房地产开发项目的经济评价...............................................................................11 2.4.1 静态评价指标............................................................................................... 12 2.4.2 动态评价指标............................................................................................... 13 2.5SWOT 分析........................................................................................................... 14 2.6 房地产开发项目的不确定性分析...................................................................... 15 2.7 商业地产的招商.................................................................................................. 16 第三章 R 县城西城市综合体项目投资机会分析...................................................... 18 3.1 项目开发企业简介.............................................................................................. 18 3.2R 县概况............................................................................................................... 18 3.3 项目用地所在区域发展情况.............................................................................. 19 3.4R 县住宅及商业地产发展概况........................................................................... 20 3.5 本章小结.............................................................................................................. 21 第四章 R 县城西城市综合体项目初步可行性分析.................................................. 22 4.1R 县城西城市综合体项目概况........................................................................... 22 4.2R 县的市场调查................................................................................................... 23 4.2.1 YQ 商业广场走访调查................................................................................. 23目录 IV 4.2.2 主要商业街区走访调查............................................................................... 24 4.2.3 住宅项目走访调查....................................................................................... 26 4.3SWOT 分析........................................................................................................... 27 4.3.1 优势............................................................................................................... 27 4.3.2 劣势............................................................................................................... 27 4.3.3 机会............................................................................................................... 28 4.3.4 威胁............................................................................................................... 28 4.3.5 SWOT 分析结论............................................................................................ 28 4.4 本章小结.............................................................................................................. 29 第五章 R 县城西城市综合体项目详细可行性分析.................................................. 30 5.1 项目的定位.......................................................................................................... 30 5.1.1 项目的市场定位........................................................................................... 30 5.1.2 项目的客户定位........................................................................................... 31 5.1.3 项目的形象定位........................................................................................... 32 5.1.4 项目定位结论............................................................................................... 33 5.2 项目物业品类的组合及体量.............................................................................. 33 5.2.1 各物业品类整体定位及体量....................................................................... 33 5.2.2 主要商业组合............................................................................................... 35 5.3 租户访谈.............................................................................................................. 36 5.3.1 租户访谈的名单确定................................................................................... 36 5.3.2 访谈准备和访谈方法................................................................................... 37 5.3.3 租户访谈结果分析....................................................................................... 37 5.4 本章小结.............................................................................................................. 38 第六章 R 县城西城市综合体项目经济评价.............................................................. 40 6.1 租售定价.............................................................................................................. 40 6.1.1 住宅定价....................................................................................................... 40 6.1.2 公寓定价....................................................................................................... 40 6.1.3 商铺租金定价............................................................................................... 41 6.1.4 商铺售价定价............................................................................................... 42 6.1.5 住宅底商售价定价....................................................................................... 43 6.1.6 自持酒店租金定价....................................................................................... 44 6.2 不同开发体量和开发时序下的成本与收益...................................................... 44 6.2.1 建造成本假设............................................................................................... 44目录 V 6.2.2A 方案投资成本与收益 ................................................................................ 45 6.2.3 B 方案投资成本与收益 ................................................................................ 47 6.2.4 C 方案投资成本与收益 ................................................................................ 48 6.3 主要财务指标测算与分析.................................................................................. 50 6.3.1 投资利润率................................................................................................... 50 6.3.2 静态回收期................................................................................................... 51 6.3.3 净现值........................................................................................................... 52 6.3.4 内部收益率................................................................................................... 52 6.3.5 主要财务指标评价....................................................................................... 52 6.4 敏感性分析.......................................................................................................... 53 6.5 本章小结.............................................................................................................. 54 第七章 结论与展望...................................................................................................... 56 7.1 结论...................................................................................................................... 56 7.1.1 全文回顾....................................................................................................... 56 7.1.2 研究的结论................................................................................................... 56 7.2 展望...................................................................................................................... 57 致谢.............................................................................................................................. 58