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天津开发区西区污水处理厂BOT模式可行性研究报告DOC

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BOT 模式建设运营污水处理厂可行性研究是项目前期工作的重要内容,是 项目投资决策的依据。本文以天津开发区西区污水处理厂 BOT 模式建设运营的 实际情况为基础,按照 BOT 模式可行性研究的方法和内容对该项目进行可行性 分析与评价,目的是尽可能准确地得出项目可行与否的结论及建议。 本文分五章对西区污水处理厂 BOT 项目的可行性进行论述。第一章序论部 分,主要介绍本文的研究背景、研究方法与思路,BOT 模式的理论综述,以及 西区污水处理厂 BOT 项目的概况。第二章与第三章,采用定性与定量相结合的 研究方法,围绕该项目经济可行与否的核心内容,特许经营服务费(包括,基准 水价、调整水价、照付不议比例)进行项目经济可行性研究。为满足该项目定向 议标的要求,在选择可靠理论模型的基础上,经过大量数据计算,得出项目理论 水价,。在此基础上,确定了项目特许经营服务费,作为项目决策依据。第四章, 区别于传统项目可行性研究,对项目进行风险评价。以风险管理的方法对该项目 的风险进行识别、量化、评估,提出相应防范措施。特别对于 BOT 项目风险难 以量化的难题,本文以调查统计的方式给出了该项目政府与承包商双方的真实风 险分担比例。第五章,在以上研究的基础上得出西区污水处理厂 BOT 项目可行 与否的结论,以及实施建议。 关键词,BOT 西区 污水处理厂 水价 风险ABSTRACT Feasibility study of adopting BOT mode to construct waste water treatment plant is an important task for its construction preparation work. It is also foundation of the investment decision. Based on the case of TEDA West Waster Water Treatment Plant, which adopts BOT mode, the article research on its feasibility and gives suggestion. With five sections, the article illustrates the feasibility of the BOT project. The first section, the prod Rome mainly explains the research background method and the thoughts of the article. Besides, it explains theory of BOT mode and introduces the basic facts of TEDA West Waste Water Treatment Plant BOT project. Focusing on economic feasibility of the BOT project including franchise service charge (basic water charge, adjustment water charge, and take-or-pay ratio), the second section and the third section combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to study on economic feasibility. In order to meet the requirement of directional bidding based on reliable theoretical mode and quantities calculation, it obtains theories price. In this base, reasonable franchise service charge will be sure. It could as the foundation of project investment. In the forth section, it chiefly makes risk evaluation instead of typical project feasibility study. By adopting risk management method it identifies, quantifies and evaluates the risk and puts forward relative solutions. BOT project risk is difficult to be quantified. For the difficult subject, by statistical method the article shows the real risk share ratio of government and subcontractor. In the fifth section, it draws a conclusion on feasibility of TEDA West Waste Water Treatment Plant BOT project and gives suggestion. Key words: BOT, TEDA West, Water Treatment Plant, water charge, risk目 录 第一章绪论......................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 ...........................................................................................................................1 1.2 研究方法与思路 ..............................................................................................................2 1.3 BOT理论综述 ....................................................................................................................3 1.3.1 BOT定义 ........................................................................................................................3 1.3.2 BOT方式通常的形式 ....................................................................................................3 1.3.3 BOT模式的特点 ............................................................................................................4 1.3.4 BOT模式建设污水处理厂应用情况.............................................................................4 1.4 开发区西区污水处理厂BOT模式概述..............................................................................5 1.4.1 开发区西区污水排放总体规划....................................................................................5 1.4.2 开发区西区污水处理厂BOT方式建设背景..................................................................5 1.4.3 建设必要性 ...................................................................................................................6 第二章西区污水处理厂BOT项目污水处理理论水价的确定.......................................................8 2.1 投资估算 ...........................................................................................................................8 2.1.1 水量规模的预测 ...........................................................................................................8 2.1.2 污水处理项目建设方案的阶段性划分........................................................................8 2.1.3 技术方案的选择 ...........................................................................................................9 2.1.4 分期规模的确定 ...........................................................................................................9 2.1.5 具体的进度安排 .........................................................................................................10 2.1.6 投资估算 .....................................................................................................................11 2.2 西区污水处理厂BOT项目理论水价计算........................................................................11 2.2.1 理论水价计算模型的选择..........................................................................................11 2.2.2 理论水价计算模型建立的理论依据..........................................................................12 2.2.3 理论水价计算模型 ....................................................................................................13 2.2.4 理论水价测算原则 .....................................................................................................13 2.2.5 西区污水处理厂BOT项目概况....................................................................................14 2.2.6 各地BOT项目的参考水价............................................................................................15 2.2.7 西区污水处理厂BOT项目边际条件............................................................................172.2.8 理论水价的量化-水价测算........................................................................................19 2.2.9 财务指标分析 .............................................................................................................21 2.2.10 财务敏感性分析 .......................................................................................................21 2.2.11 盈亏平衡分析 ...........................................................................................................22 第三章西区污水处理厂BOT项目污水处理特许经营服务费确定...............................................24 3.1 特许经营水价的确定 .....................................................................................................24 3.1.1 基准水价分析 .............................................................................................................24 3.1.2 调整水价分析 .............................................................................................................24 3.1.3 特许经营水价谈判流程..............................................................................................26 3.1.4 价格博弈谁将获益,--“双赢”的结果..................................................................27 3.2 西区污水处理BOT项目照付不议比例的确定...............................................................28 3.2.1“照付不议原则”的基本介绍...................................................................................28 3.2.2“照付不议比例”的调研...........................................................................................29 3.2.3“80%照付不议”比例下的政府收益分析.................................................................30 3.2.4“80%照付不议”比例下的承包商收益分析.............................................................31 3.2.5“80%照付不议”比例的确定.....................................................................................31 第四章 西区污水处理厂BOT项目风险评价.................................................................................33 4.1 BOT项目风险管理 ..........................................................................................................33 4.1.1 BOT项目风险管理的主要原则...................................................................................33 4.1.2 风险管理过程和方法 .................................................................................................33 4.2 西区污水处理厂BOT项目的风险管理............................................................................33 4.2.1 BOT模式投资的风险性分析.......................................................................................33 4.2.2 西区污水处理厂BOT项目风险因素层次模型............................................................35 4.2.3 风险分担的原则 ........................................................................................................36 4.2.4 确定项目关键风险分担..............................................................................................37 4.2.5 项目关键风险分担的量化..........................................................................................37 4.3 风险应对措施, .............................................................................................................38 4.3.1 政府.............................................................................................................................38 4.3.2 承包商 .........................................................................................................................40 第五章结论及建议 ........................................................................................................................42 5.1 结论.................................................................................................................................42 5.1.1 该项目适合采用BOT模式............................................................................................42 5.1.2 政府与承包商通过博弈可实现“双赢”..................................................................43 5.2 建议.................................................................................................................................445.2.1 建立行业管理法律保障和政策支持..........................................................................44 5.2.2 建立完善特许经营制度和支撑体系..........................................................................44 5.2.3 政府应发挥主导作用 .................................................................................................45