···································································································I Abstract ·······························································································II 第一章 引言·························································································1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ·········································································1 1.1.1 研究背景··········································································1 1.1.2 研究意义··········································································2 1.2 国内外研究综述 ·········································································3 1.2.1 国外研究现状····································································3 1.2.2 国内研究现状····································································4 1.3 研究方法和技术路线 ···································································7 1.3.1 拟采用的研究方法······························································7 1.3.2 技术路线··········································································7 1.4 本报告存在的创新和不足 ·····························································8 1.4.1 本报告的创新之处······························································8 1.4.2 本报告的不足之处······························································9 第二章 概念界定与理论基础···································································10 2.1 相关概念界定 ···········································································10 2.1.1 农产品价格保险································································10 2.1.2 棉花价格保险···································································10 2.1.3 农户经济行为···································································11 2.1.4 WTO“黄箱政策” ································································11 2.2 相关理论界定 ···········································································12 2.2.1 制度变迁理论···································································12 2.2.2 农业补贴政策相关理论·······················································12 2.2.3 农户行为假设···································································14 2.2.4 农业保险支持农业发展的相关理论 ·······································15 第三章 新疆棉花涉农补贴政策变迁概况····················································17 3.1 新疆棉花政策补贴概况 ·······························································17 3.2 主要涉农补贴政策的变迁概况······················································18 3.2.1 临时收储政策···································································18 3.2.2 棉花目标价格补贴政策·······················································19新疆棉花价格保险可行性研究 3.3 新疆棉花保险探索 ·····································································22 3.3.1 新疆棉花保险发展现状·······················································23 3.3.2 棉花价格保险···································································25 3.3.3 新疆棉花价格保险试点·······················································26 第四章 实施棉花价格保险的必要性··························································27 4.1 国家积极推进棉花目标价格改革试点工作·······································27 4.2 目标价格补贴政策违反 WTO“黄箱政策” ········································27 4.3 棉花价格保险弥补目标价格补贴政策缺陷·······································28 4.3.1 同目标价格补贴政策相比，目标实施具有一致性 ·····················28 4.3.2 降低落实成本，弥补目标价格补贴程序复杂等缺陷 ··················28 4.3.3 规避补贴金额差距性大，补贴发放节奏慢缺陷 ························29 4.3.4 有利于提高棉农风险意识，凸显国家政策本质 ························30 第五章 棉花价格保险可行性分析·····························································32 5.1 在经济方面，棉花价格保险延续目标价格补贴标准···························32 5.2 在管理方面，目标价格完善管理机制为保险补贴发放奠定基础 ···········32 5.3 在技术运作方面，具有完善的交接运行模式····································33 5.4 棉花价格保险可行性实证分析—基于农户调查·································34 5.4.1 数据来源与样本描述··························································34 5.4.2 农户对棉花价格保险选择行为影响因素实证分析 ·····················36 5.4.3 主要结论·········································································41 5.5 棉花价格保险可行性实证分析—基于中国期货市场研究 ····················41 5.5.1 变量说明与模型构建··························································41 5.5.2 实证分析·········································································43 5.5.3 主要结论·········································································47 5.6 棉花价格保险可行性实证分析—基于保险公司调查研究 ····················47 5.6.1 基本情况介绍···································································47 5.6.2 保险公司出台棉花价格保险影响因素分析 ······························48 第六章 实施棉花价格保险的障碍性分析····················································49 6.1 目标价格补贴政策实施过程产生路径依赖·······································49 6.2 信息不对称使得保险公司管理机制有待建立····································49 6.3 农户增加道德风险和逆选择问题···················································49 6.3.1 道德风险难题···································································49 6.3.2 逆选择难题······································································50 6.4 国家对棉花价格保险的支持体系有待完善·······································50新疆棉花价格保险可行性研究 第七章 政策建议··················································································52 7.1 强化政府积极支持棉花价格保险创新力度·······································52 7.2 建立健全法律法规制度，制约失德、败德行为·································53 7.3 加大对棉花价格保险的试点范围···················································53 7.4 完善棉花期货市场，促进棉花价格保险发展····································54