I 摘要 余热供热是近年来新兴的一种供热方式。由于它是清洁能源，因而得到政府的 大力支持，逐渐成为北方主要供热方式的一种。为了更好地评估余热供热公司的价 值，本文以 GA 余热供热公司为例，对其股权价值进行评估，建立适用于余热供热 公司价值评估的模型，以为各类管理者、政府监管部门及投资者提供参考。 本文首先介绍了论文的选题背景，指出本文的理论意义和现实意义，分析国内 外研究的现状，论述本文的研究内容及所采用的研究方法；其次阐明有关公司股权 价值评估的基本理论，分析了常见的资产基础法、收益法、市场法等几种评估方法 的特点及使用范围，同时介绍现金流折现和相对价值评估两类具体模型的计算过程； 再次深入剖析了余热供热公司的行业特点，分析 GA 公司经营现状和发展趋势，在 此基础上分析了资产基础法、收益法、市场法的适用性，确定收益法作为 GA 公司 股权价值评估的方法；然后进行了实证研究，明确了评估假设，详细预测 GA 公司 的收入、成本、费用、资本支出等各项数据，确定合适的折现率，通过现金流折现 模型计算 GA 公司的股权价值，并通过市盈率估值方法对评估结果进行了验证；通 过分析 GA 公司股权价值评估，为提高 GA 公司股权价值和外部投资者选择投资目 标提出对策和建议；最后对利用收益法评估公司股权价值的一些不足做了分析和展 望。 关键词 余热供热；股权价值评估；收益法Abstract II Abstract Waste heat heating is a new heating method in recent years. Since it is a clean energy source, it has been strongly supported by the government, and it has gradually become one of the main heating methods in the North. In order to evaluate the value of waste heat heating company better, this paper takes GA waste heat heating company as an example to evaluate its equity value, and establishes a value evaluation model for waste heat heating company. This paper can provide reference for managers, government regulators and investors. Firstly, this paper introduces the background of the topic selection, and points out the theoretical and practical significance of this paper. This paper analyzes the current research situation at home and abroad, discusses the content of this study and the research methods adopted; secondly, it clarifies the basic theory of corporate equity valuation, and analyzes the features and usable range of several evaluation methods, like the common asset-based method, income method and market method. At the same time,it introduces the calculating process of cash flow discount and relative value evaluation. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the industry characteristics of waste heat heating company in depth again. And the operation status and development trend of GA company are analyzed. On this basis, the asset-based method, income method and market method are analyzed. Applicability, the income method is chose as the method of equity valuation of GA company; then this paper carries out empirical research, make the evaluation assumption clearly , forecast the income, cost, cost, capital expenditure and other data of GA company in detail, determine the appropriate discount rate, calculate the equity value of GA company through cash flow discount model. The valuation method of P/E ratio is used to verify the evaluation results. Finally, By analyzing the equity valuation of GA company, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for improving the equity value of GA company and choosing investment objectives of external investors. some shortcomings of the valuation method of earnings are analyzed and prospected. Keywords Waste heat heating; equity valuation; income approach目 录 III 目 录 摘要....................................................................................................................................I Abstract.................................................................................................................................II 第 1 章 绪 论...................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和研究意义..............................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景...........................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义...........................................................................................................2 1.2 研究综述..................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外研究综述...................................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内研究综述...................................................................................................3 1.3 研究内容和研究方法..............................................................................................5 1.3.1 研究内容...........................................................................................................5 1.3.2 研究方法...........................................................................................................6 1.4 本章小结..................................................................................................................6 第 2 章 公司价值评估理论及评估模型...........................................................................7 2.1 公司评估价值概念..................................................................................................7 2.1.1 公司的整体价值...............................................................................................7 2.1.2 公司整体经济价值类别...................................................................................8 2.2 公司价值评估方法..................................................................................................8 2.2.1 资产基础法.......................................................................................................9 2.2.2 收益法...............................................................................................................9 2.2.3 市场法.............................................................................................................10 2.3 公司价值评估模型................................................................................................11 2.3.1 现金流量折现模型.........................................................................................11 2.3.2 相对价值评估模型.........................................................................................13 2.4 本章小结................................................................................................................14 第 3 章 GA 公司评估方法的选择..................................................................................15 3.1 余热供热行业背景................................................................................................15 3.1.1 余热供热行业规模和特点.............................................................................15 3.1.3 余热供热行业发展潜力.................................................................................16 3.2 GA 公司概况.........................................................................................................17河北科技大学硕士学位论文 IV 3.2.1 业务模式.........................................................................................................17 3.2.2 公司主要供热区域.........................................................................................18 3.2.3 公司的竞争优势.............................................................................................19 3.3 评估方法的确定....................................................................................................20 3.3.1 资产基础法分析.............................................................................................20 3.3.2 收益法分析.....................................................................................................21 3.3.3 市场法分析.....................................................................................................21 3.4 收益法预测模型确定............................................................................................22 3.5 本章小结................................................................................................................23 第 4 章 GA 公司股权价值评估......................................................................................25 4.1 评估假设................................................................................................................25 4.1.1 一般假设.........................................................................................................25 4.1.2 特殊假设.........................................................................................................25 4.2 历史财务数据........................................................................................................26 4.3 预测期及收益期确定............................................................................................27 4.4 预测期数据测算....................................................................................................28 4.4.1 营业收入预测.................................................................................................28 4.4.2 营业成本预测.................................................................................................30 4.4.3 税金及附加预测.............................................................................................31 4.4.4 销售费用和管理费用预测.............................................................................32 4.4.5 折旧和资本支出预测.....................................................................................32 4.4.6 运营资本的增量预测.....................................................................................33 4.4.7 永续期现金流预测.........................................................................................33 4.5 收益法计算过程....................................................................................................34 4.5.1 息前税后利润计算.........................................................................................34 4.5.2 公司自由现金流计算.....................................................................................34 4.5.3 折现率计算.....................................................................................................35 4.5.4 营业性资产价值计算，.................................................................................37 4.6 收益法评估结果确定............................................................................................37 4.7 市盈率评估方法验证............................................................................................38 4.8 评估结果分析........................................................................................................40 4.9 本章小结................................................................................................................40 第 5 章 对策和建议.........................................................................................................41目 录 V 5.1 提高 GA 公司价值对策建议................................................................................41 5.1.1 引入价值管理理念.........................................................................................41 5.1.2 增加公司现金流量.........................................................................................41 5.1.3 降低折现率.....................................................................................................43 5.1.4 加强非财务因素的管理.................................................................................43 5.2 投资者的建议........................................................................................................43 5.3 本章小结................................................................................................................44 结 论.................................................................................................................................45 附 录.................................................................................................................................47