I 摘要 当前，全球实现经济发展的重要基础就是要保持良好的生态环境。随着我国改革 开放日趋深入，在经济飞速发展的同时，工业、生产制造业给水资源带来的危害也逐 渐增大，直接导致地下水受到污染，水质明显下滑，因此要采取必要措施来制止这种 污染危害，不断创造良好的生活环境。在提高居民生活水平的基础上确保生活质量的 提升，已经非常迫切，国家层面高度重视，将生态文明建设定为基本发展国策。而对 于治理水污染来说重要手段之一就是兴建污水处理厂，其在水资源保护、利用及开发 方面作用突出。但是由于我国污水处理行业存在的管理体制弊端等问题存在，造成目 前行业内部发展存在较大瓶颈，发展速度滞后。基于这种背景下，兴建污水处理厂对 于项目投资方来说存在较大的投资风险，所以，在项目建设之前，就需要对污水处理 厂的建设进行可行性分析，评价出该项目的风险，避免做出错误的决策。所谓可行性 研究指的就是在工程开工之前，利用对和工程相关的资金、资源、市场与社会等层面 问题的全方位研究、调查与评估，最终对项目具不具备可行性或者最优方案的选择做 出结论。 本研究在阐述项目建设可行性研究相关理论基础上，对 XX 污水处理厂项目建设 必要性进行系统研究，利用项目投资评价理论对投资估算、筹资模型及其盈利能力、 清偿债务可行性进行论证，利用风险管理管理理论对项目开发建设、运营中投资风险 进行分析，并提出相应的防范对策，最后对 XX 污水处理厂项目建设可行性综合评价 分析，并得出相应的研究结论与展望。本研究通过对 XX 污水处理厂项目建设可行性 相关研究，其目的在于逐步理清污水处理行业投资发展基本脉络，以项目可行性投资 建设相关理论为基础，有针对性提出 XX 污水处理厂项目实际评价重点及研究测算方 式，以期能够为国内同类企业提供参考指导，并提供具备实际操作价值的执行方案。 同时也希望本研究能够为项目建设可行性研究相关理论逐步完善提供参考。 关键词：污水处理；可行性研究；项目投资评价；风险管理ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT At present, the development of the global economy is the important foundation to maintain a good ecological environment, along with the increasingly deepening of reform and opening-up policy, with the rapid economic development and at the same time each big industry, manufacturing water resource damage also gradually improve, a direct result of the pollution of groundwater, water quality decline obviously, so take the necessary measures to stop the pollution harm, constantly create a good living environment, to improve residents' living standard to ensure the quality of life has increased, on the basis of the already very urgent, countries in this area have attached great importance to, will develop ecologic environmental protection as a basic national policy. And has important role for water pollution is sewage treatment industry, especially in regard to the development of water resources protection, use and function. But because our country the disadvantages of the management system of the sewage treatment plant construction industry problems exist, such as the current industry development there is a big bottleneck, lagging development speed. Based on this background, the construction of sewage treatment plant for project developers is a greater risk of investment, which requires the project developer before the start of the project must be for their own financial and material resources and manpower to do professional project feasibility assessment report, to avoid the investment decision. Feasibility study refers to the so-called is before the project starts, use of funds, resources, and the work of relevant market and social problems such as level of comprehensive research, investigation and assessment, finally do not have in the project feasibility or a conclusion the choice of the optimal solution. In this study in this paper, the project construction feasibility study on the basis of relevant theories, the system was studied for the XX sewage treatment plant project construction necessity, using the theory of project investment evaluation on investment estimation and financing model and its profitability, pay off debt feasibility demonstration, using the theory of risk management to analyze the investment risk in project development and construction, and puts forward the corresponding prevention countermeasure, finally to XX sewage treatment plant project feasibility evaluation analysis, and the corresponding research conclusion and prospect. This study through the XX sewage treatment plant project feasibility studies,湘潭大学商学院专业硕士学位报告 III the purpose is to gradually form a basic sewage treatment industry investment development context, based on the project construction feasibility of investment related theory, proposed targeted XX sewage treatment plant project actual evaluation and research way, in order to provide references for similar domestic enterprises guidance, and provide a practical implementation of value. At the same time also hope that this research can for the project construction feasibility study related theory to provide the reference to consummate gradually. Keyword: waste water treatment, feasibility research of Project, Project investment evaluation；risk management目录 IV 目 录 摘要.................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................. II 第 1 章 绪论..................................................................................................................5 1.1 选题背景与意义................................................................................................. 5 1.1.1 选题背景.......................................................................................................5 1.1.2 研究意义........................................................................................................5 1.2 相关理论研究综述............................................................................................. 5 1.2.1 国内外对项目投资评价理论的研究............................................................5 1.2.2 国内外对项目风险管理理论的研究............................................................4 1.3 研究内容与研究方法......................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 研究内容........................................................................................................6 1.3.2 研究方法........................................................................................................6 1.4 研究思路与基本框架.......................................................................................... 7 第 2 章 项目建设可行性研究相关理论基础............................................................10 2.1 可行性研究....................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 可行性研究基本内涵..................................................................................10 2.1.2 项目可行性研究的作用..............................................................................10 2.2 项目投资评价....................................................................................................11 2.2.1 投资项目评价研究的内容..........................................................................11 2.2.2 投资项目评价的基本原理..........................................................................12 2.3 风险管理理论................................................................................................... 13 2.3.1 项目风险管理内涵......................................................................................13 2.3.2 项目风险管理相关理论..............................................................................13 第 3 章 XX 污水处理厂项目介绍.............................................................................15 3.1 XX 污水处理厂项目概况..................................................................................15 3.2 污水处理厂厂址选择........................................................................................ 15 3.2.1 厂址选择原则..............................................................................................15 3.2.2 污水处理厂厂址确定..................................................................................16 3.3 项目建设的必要性............................................................................................ 17 3.3.1 保护湘江流域水体水质和生态环境的需要..............................................17湘潭大学商学院专业硕士学位报告 V 3.3.2 XX 县经济建设和发展的需要...................................................................17 3.3.3 节能减排，坚持走可持续发展道路，构建和谐社会的需要..................18 3.3.4 关心民生，以人为本的需要......................................................................18 3.4 评价结论........................................................................................................... 18 第 4 章 XX 污水处理厂项目市场分析及建设规模确定.........................................19 4.1 项目市场分析.................................................................................................... 19 4.1.1 地区总体建设规划......................................................................................19 4.1.2 发展布局与功能区分..................................................................................19 4.1.3 给水规划......................................................................................................19 4.1.4 排水规划......................................................................................................10 4.1.5 污水量预测..................................................................................................21 4.2 建设规模的确定................................................................................................ 24 第 5 章 XX 污水处理厂项目建设投资估算与资金筹措分析.................................25 5.1 投资估算............................................................................................................ 25 5.1.1 工程概况及编制范围..................................................................................25 5.1.2 编制方法及依据..........................................................................................25 5.1.3 其它建设费用的确定..................................................................................25 5.1.4 其它..............................................................................................................25 5.1.5 投资估算表及技术经济指标......................................................................25 5.2 资金筹措方案分析............................................................................................ 29 5.3 评价结论........................................................................................................... 31 第 6 章 XX 污水处理厂项目建设工程财务评价.....................................................32 6.1 财务评价依据及范围........................................................................................ 32 6.2 财务评价基础数据与参数选取........................................................................ 32 6.3 运营收入估算.................................................................................................... 32 6.4 成本费用估算.................................................................................................... 33 6.5 财务评价报表.................................................................................................... 35 6.6 不确定性分析.................................................................................................... 46 6.6.1 敏感性分析..................................................................................................46 6.6.2 盈亏平衡分析..............................................................................................46 6.7 评价结论............................................................................................................ 46 第 7 章 XX 污水处理厂项目建设社会评价.............................................................48 7.1 项目在解决水污染对区域经济发展制约中的核心地位................................ 48目录 VI 7.2 项目环境效益评估............................................................................................ 48 7.3 社会影响分析.................................................................................................... 48 7.4 评价结论............................................................................................................ 49 第 8 章 XX 污水处理厂项目建设风险分析.............................................................51 8.1 自然风险............................................................................................................ 51 8.1.1 自然风险因素分析......................................................................................51 8.1.2 自然风险的防范和控制..............................................................................51 8.2 工程风险............................................................................................................ 51 8.2.1 工程风险因素分析......................................................................................51 8.2.2 工程风险的防范措施..................................................................................52 8.3 运营风险........................................................................................................... 52 8.3.1 运营风险因素分析......................................................................................52 8.3.2 运营风险的防范措施..................................................................................53 8.4 评价结论............................................................................................................ 53 结论与展望..................................................................................................................55