随着证券市场规模的不断壮大和市场机制的逐步完善，人们的投资理念日趋成 熟和理性，他们更倾向于对上市公司本身的内在价值进行透彻的分析和研究，进而 挖掘出公司的投资价值，以期获得更长远稳定的投资回报。2017 年在赚钱效应的驱 动下，市场对于这种投资股票价值的理念的追逐达到热潮，纷纷争相效仿。2018 年， 经过市场的不断演绎，对股票价值投资的理念比以往更加深入人心，几乎是资本市 场中投资理念的标杆，众多投资者成为忠实拥护者。在此背景下作者观察资本市场 股票走势发现，作为市场领涨主力之一的金融股表现卓越，尤其银行股和保险股均 有不俗表现，备受市场关注。而证券公司作为金融业的核心力量之一，却受到行业 环境的影响，整体业绩表现不及金融行业总体。2017 年至 2018 年，券商股的走势 相对偏弱，不能够满足投资者的期望，股票的投资价值也备受市场争议。因此本文 基于股票价值投资这样的投资理念、思路及市场背景，试图去寻找经营状况良好的 证券公司，研究其公司内在价值，进而挖掘公司股票的投资价值。 通过一系列的筛选比对后，本文选取有地域代表性的中小券商---华龙证券股份 有限公司（简称为“华龙证券”）作为研究对象，该公司处于经济落后的西北地区， 以甘肃兰州为总部根基，分支映射全国其它重要地区，具有自身的经营特色。本文 在对其进行投资价值分析时，以前沿、经典价值投资理论思想为指导，从研究和分 析公司自身的内在价值出发，通过对决定公司内在价值和影响股票价格的相关影响 方面诸如：宏观经济、行业因素、公司经营状况等进行分析、比较和论述。再结合 财务分析方法，选取一系列符合公司情况的财务指标做进一步分析，再通过估值模 型对公司进行估值定价分析，据此估算出公司的内在价值。随后进一步发掘出公司 股票的投资价值，并对其结果进行分析和评估，得出本文结论。最后又对结论起到 的积极作用和现实意义进行总结和描述。 关键词：投资价值，内在价值，公司治理，估值模型MBA 学位 作者：张永梅 华龙证券股票投资价值分析研究 II Analysis and Research on the Investment value of CHINA DRAGON Securities Stock Abstract With the continuous growth of the scale of the securities market and the gradual improvement of the market mechanism, people's investment ideas are becoming more and more mature and rational, and they are more inclined to carry out a thorough analysis and research on the intrinsic value of the listed companies themselves, and then to find out the investment value of the company, in order to obtain a more long-term and stable return on investment. the pursuit of the market's idea of the value of this kind of investment, driven by the money-making effect in 2017, has been racing to follow. In 2018, the concept of stock-value investment is more popular than ever before, through the continuous deduction of the market, It is almost the benchmark of the investment concept in the capital market, and many investors become loyal advocates. In this background, the author observes that the stock trend of the capital market has found that the financial unit, which is one of the main forces of the market leader, is outstanding, especially the bank shares and the insurance shares, and is of great concern to the market. As one of the core power of the financial industry, the securities company is affected by the environment of the industry. The overall performance of the securities company is less than that of the financial industry. In 2017-2018, the stock market is relatively weak and couldn’t meet the expectations of the investors, and the investment value of the stock is also subject to the market dispute. Therefore, on the basis of the investment concept, the thought and the market background of the stock value investment, this paper tries to find a securities company that is in good condition, to study the intrinsic value of the company and to explore the investment value of the company's shares. After a series of screening comparison, the paper selects a small and medium-sized securities trader with geographical representation--CHINA DRAGON Securities Co., Ltd. (referred to as the CHINA DRAGON Securities) as the research object. The company is in the northwest of the economy, and is based on Lanzhou as the base. The branch mapsMBA 学位 作者：张永梅 华龙证券股票投资价值分析研究 III to other important parts of the country and has its own operating characteristics. in that analysis of the investment value of the company, this article, based on the theoretical thought of the frontier and the classical value investment, from the research and analysis of the intrinsic value of the company itself, through the influence of the internal value of the decision company and the influence on the stock price, such as the macro-economy and the industry factor, The company's operating conditions are analyzed, compared and discussed. Combined with the financial analysis method, a series of financial indicators that meet the company's condition are selected for further analysis, and the company is evaluated and priced by the valuation model, and the intrinsic value of the company is estimated accordingly. Then, the investment value of the company's shares is further excavated, and the results are analyzed and evaluated, and the conclusions of this paper are drawn. Finally, the positive and practical significance of the conclusion has been summarized and described. Keywords: investment value, intrinsic value，corporate governance，valuation model兰州大学硕士学位论文 华龙证券股票投资价值分析研究 IV 目 录 中文摘要...........................................................................................................I Abstract.........................................................................................................II 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与研究意义..........................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景......................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义......................................................................................................5 1.2 研究内容与研究问题..........................................................................................6 1.2.1 研究内容......................................................................................................6 1.2.2 研究问题......................................................................................................7 1.3 研究方法与论文结构..........................................................................................7 1.3.1 研究方法......................................................................................................7 1.3.2 研究框架......................................................................................................8 第二章 股票投资价值理论综述..................................................................10 2.1 股票投资价值理论............................................................................................10 2.1.1 本杰明·格雷厄姆投资价值理论............................................................10 2.1.2 巴菲特投资价值理论................................................................................11 2.1.3 企业投资价值理论....................................................................................11 2.1.4 CAPM 模型..................................................................................................12 2.2 国内外股票投资价值理论的发展状况............................................................13 2.2.1 国外股票投资价值理论发展状况............................................................13 2.2.2 国内股票投资价值理论发展状况............................................................15 2.3 国内外股票投资价值研究状况........................................................................15兰州大学硕士学位论文 华龙证券股票投资价值分析研究 V 2.3.1 国外研究状况............................................................................................15 2.3.2 国内研究状况............................................................................................17 第三章 华龙证券发展现状及问题..............................................................19 3.1 华龙证券基本状况............................................................................................19 3.1.1 基本状况 ..................................................................................................19 3.1.2 业务状况....................................................................................................20 3.1.3 财务状况....................................................................................................21 3.1.4 职工状况....................................................................................................22 3.2 华龙证券发展战略............................................................................................22 3.2.1 经营战略....................................................................................................23 3.2.2 业务战略....................................................................................................23 3.2.3 财务战略....................................................................................................23 3.3 华龙证券发展存在的问题................................................................................25 3.3.1 华龙证券在强周期行业特性方面的风险................................................25 3.3.2 华龙证券在业务模式方面存在的问题....................................................25 3.3.3 华龙证券市场风险和外部风险................................................................26 第四章 华龙证券股票投资价值分析..........................................................27 4.1 行业分析............................................................................................................27 4.1.1 行业生命周期分析....................................................................................27 4.1.2 行业经济与政策环境分析........................................................................28 4.1.3 行业的市场结构分析................................................................................32 4.2 会计政策分析....................................................................................................37 4.2.1 非流动性资产处置损益............................................................................37 4.2.2 政府补助....................................................................................................37兰州大学硕士学位论文 华龙证券股票投资价值分析研究 VI 4.2.3 投资性房地产............................................................................................37 4.2.4 报表新格式影响营业利润........................................................................37 4.3 公司治理情况分析............................................................................................38 4.3.1 公司治理结构............................................................................................38 4.3.2 内部管理制度的运行状况........................................................................39 4.4 财务分析............................................................................................................40 4.4.1 盈利能力分析............................................................................................41 4.4.2 成长能力分析............................................................................................43 4.5 估值定价分析.....................................................................................................44 4.5.1 绝对估值法估值........................................................................................44 4.5.2 相对估值法估值........................................................................................47 4.5.3 资本资产定价模型（CAPM）....................................................................48 4.6 华龙证券投资价值评价结果............................................................................50 4.6.1 估值模型的局限性.....................................................................................50 4.6.2 投资价值估值结果评价.............................................................................51 第五章 结论及意义......................................................................................53 5.1 主要结论............................................................................................................53 5.1.1 投资盈利预测.............................................................................................53 5.1.2 投资评级....................................................................................................54 5.1.3 投资价值结果评价....................................................................................55 5.2 结论的实践应运及意义....................................................................................55 5.2.1 实践应运方向............................................................................................56 5.2.2 研究结论意义............................................................................................56