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本报告选题基于政府招商引资过程中的实际案例和国家提升建筑产业转型升级的 大背景,以国家当下主推的“装配式建筑”作为切入点。 报告通过可行性研究的方式,重点关注了国家相关产业政策、对拟建设项目进行 内外因素分析、投资经济效益评估、项目投资管理和风险防控等内容。主要研究内容 简略如下:(1)项目建设必要性问题:报告综合运用文献研究、列举法、定性分析法 等,通过查找国家产业政策,分别对比各结构类型建筑的异同点,理清各类型建筑的 发展历程、趋势;借鉴 SWOT 分析法,对影响本项目建设的内外因素进行了分析论证。 (2)项目建设可行性问题:报告综合运用定性分析法、定量分析法、调查法、数学法、 经验总结法等,对项目进行全面分析。该部分内容以“钢结构集成建筑西部基地”具体 案例入手,规划了项目近远期建设内容、拟定初步的建设规模,并对项目进行投资估 算和经济效益分析评估、风险分析及不确定性分析。 报告通过多方面的分析与评估认为:装配式钢结构集成建筑符合国家可持续发展 战略,是建筑领域转型升级的重要载体。新建钢结构装配式建筑西部基地项目符合国 家政策、满足地方经济发展所需;项目选址科学、建设规模适当,具有良好的经济和 社会效益,建议予以实施。目前,正值装配式建筑行业从导入期向成长期过渡阶段, 报告识别、分析了影响本项目建设的四大风险(包含政策、市场、基建投资和工程建 设等),同时提出了相应的风险防控对策。 任何项目的投资决策都是一个漫长的过程,“钢结构装配式集成建筑西部基地项 目”从最初的投资构想到最终规划落地也是如此。项目投资的决策过程,需要综合考量 经济政策、企业内外部环境因素、合理确定投资规模并注重风险管控,每一个企业务 必高度重视。 关键词:绿色发展;装配式集成建筑;项目可行性分析西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 II 页 Abstract Based on the actual cases in the process of government investment promotion and the background of national upgrading and upgrading of the construction industry, this paper focuses on the assembly architecture as the starting point. Through the feasibility study, the paper focuses on the relevant industrial policies of the country, the analysis of internal and external factors, the evaluation of investment economic benefits, the management of project investment, and the prevention and control of risks.The main research content is as follows: (1) The necessity of project construction: This paper uses literature research, enumeration method, qualitative analysis method, etc. to find out the National industrial policy, compare the similarities and differences of various structural types of buildings, and clarify the development history and trends of various types of buildings.; With reference to SWOT analysis method, the internal and external factors affecting the construction of this project are analyzed and demonstrated. (2) The feasibility of project construction: The paper comprehensively analyzes the project using qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, investigation, mathematics, and experience summary. This part starts with the concrete case of steel structure integrated building Western base, plans the project's short-and long-term construction content, draws up the initial construction scale, and carries on the investment estimate and economic benefit analysis evaluation, risk analysis and uncertainty analysis of the project. Through the analysis and evaluation of various aspects of the paper, it is concluded that the integrated steel structure is in line with the National sustainable development strategy and is an important carrier for the transformation and upgrading of the construction field. The project of new steel structure assembly building Western base conforms to the national policy and meets the needs of local economic development; The site selection of the project is scientific and the scale of the construction is appropriate, and it has good economic and social benefits. It is recommended that it be implemented. At present, the paper identifies and analyzes the four major risks that affect the construction of the project(including policy, market, infrastructure investment and engineering construction), and puts forward corresponding risk prevention and control measures at the same time. Investment decisions on any project are a long process, as is the steel structure assembly integrated building Western base project from the initial investment configuration to the final planning landing. The decision-making process of project investment needs to西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 III 页 comprehensively consider economic policies, internal and external environmental factors, reasonably determine the investment scale and pay attention to risk control. Each enterprise must pay great attention to it. Key words: green development; assembly-integrated building; project feasibility analysis西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 IV 页 目 录 第 1 章 绪 论........................................................................................................................1 1.1 报告研究的背景 ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 报告研究的目的和意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.3 报告研究的主要内容 .................................................................................................... 2 第 2 章 钢结构集成建筑产业分析......................................................................................4 2.1 各结构类型建筑概述 .................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 几个基本概念......................................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 各结构类型建筑特点分析..................................................................................... 5 2.1.3 各结构类型建筑发展现状及趋势分析................................................................. 7 2.2 装配式钢结构集成建筑分析 ........................................................................................ 8 2.3 国家及地方对装配式建筑相关产业的政策 .............................................................. 10 2.3.1 国家层面对装配式建筑发展相关规划............................................................... 10 2.3.2 四川省大力发展装配式建筑相关政策............................................................... 12 2.3.3 绵阳市就大力发展装配式建筑的举措............................................................... 13 2.4 国家发展装配式建筑对相关单位的影响 .................................................................. 17 2.4.1 装配式建筑对设计单位的影响........................................................................... 17 2.4.2 装配式建筑对传统施工单位的影响................................................................... 18 2.4.3 装配式建筑对钢结构工程行业的影响............................................................... 20 第 3 章 项目建设必要性及 SWOT 分析...........................................................................21 3.1 项目主体单位简介 ...................................................................................................... 21 3.1.1 某网架股份有限公司........................................................................................... 21 3.1.2 四川鑫东联钢结构集成技术开发有限公司....................................................... 21 3.2 项目建设必要性分析 .................................................................................................. 22 3.2.1 本项目的建设符合可持续发展要求................................................................... 22 3.2.2 本项目的建设将加快地区发展........................................................................... 22 3.2.3 本项目的建设满足地方产业发展需要............................................................... 22 3.3 项目 SWOT 分析及战略选择..................................................................................... 23 3.3.1 SWOT 分析的理论基础....................................................................................... 23 3.3.2 钢结构集成建筑西部基地项目 SWOT 分析...................................................... 23 第 4 章 项目建设构想........................................................................................................28西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 V 页 4.1 指导思想与发展定位 .................................................................................................. 28 4.1.1 指导思想............................................................................................................... 28 4.1.2 项目愿景与目标定位.......................................................................................... 29 4.2 项目建设背景及前瞻 .................................................................................................. 29 4.2.1 钢结构集成建筑西部基地项目落地背景........................................................... 29 4.2.2 钢结构集成建筑产业化基地构想....................................................................... 30 4.2.3 主要产业发展规划............................................................................................... 30 4.2.4 配套产业发展...................................................................................................... 31 4.2.5 相关产业链发展................................................................................................... 31 4.2.6 场址初步确定....................................................................................................... 31 4.2.7 西部基地建设规模与时序................................................................................... 32 4.3 项目初步建设方案 ...................................................................................................... 34 4.3.1 方案设计原则....................................................................................................... 34 4.3.2 项目规划区域范围及概况................................................................................... 34 4.3.3 项目初步设计方案............................................................................................... 35 4.4 项目建设运营管理方式设想 ...................................................................................... 38 4.4.1 坚持市场主导、政府引导................................................................................... 38 4.4.2 坚持顶层设计、协调发展................................................................................... 38 4.4.3 建立以钢结构为基础的行业产业链................................................................... 39 4.5 项目建设的相关保障措施 .......................................................................................... 39 4.5.1 政府主导,协会牵头,企业合作运营,产业配合.......................................... 39 4.5.2 科学规划,精心建设........................................................................................... 39 4.5.3 取得地方各级政府的重点支持........................................................................... 39 4.5.4 重人才培育的理念,设人才支撑体系............................................................... 40 第 5 章 项目投资估算与效益分析......................................................................................41 5.1 项目投资估算 ............................................................................................................. 41 5.1.1 投资估算说明...................................................................................................... 41 5.1.2 投资估算编制依据............................................................................................ 42 5.1.3 投资估算.............................................................................................................. 42 5.2 经济效益分析 .............................................................................................................. 45 5.3 项目不确定性分析 ...................................................................................................... 47 5.4 社会效益分析 .............................................................................................................. 48西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 VI 页 5.4.1 本项目的建设有效促进绵阳市的城市发展....................................................... 49 5.4.2 本项目将引领带动地方传统建筑行业结构调整............................................... 49 5.4.3 本项目可以有效带动相关产业发展................................................................... 50 第 6 章 项目社会影响及风险分析....................................................................................51 6.1 项目社会影响分析 ..................................................................................................... 51 6.1.1 项目对居民的影响............................................................................................... 51 6.1.2 项目对不同利益群体的影响............................................................................... 51 6.1.3 项目选址对地区基础设施承载能力的影响...................................................... 51 6.2 项目与所在地互适性分析 ......................................................................................... 52 6.2.1 不同利益群体对项目的态度及参与程度.......................................................... 52 6.2.2 各级组织对项目的态度及支持程度.................................................................. 52 6.2.3 地区文化状况对项目的适应程度...................................................................... 52 6.3 项目风险分析与评价 ............................................................................................... 52 6.3.1 主要风险因素....................................................................................................... 53 6.3.2 项目风险的分析评估........................................................................................... 54 6.3.3 风险防范对策....................................................................................................... 55 结 论....................................................................................................................................57 致 谢....................................................................................................................................59