我国农产品期货市场发展迅速，经过二十多年的发展，现已成为仅次于美国 的全球第二大农产品期货市场，其发展完善了农产品市场体系，丰富了农产品流 通体制。我国水产品生产量和出口量均居于世界首位，将期货市场交易机制引入 水产品交易，以期货价格指导现货生产，可以使水产品生产者、加工者、出口商 有效地把握市场价格动态，达到规避风险，稳定收益的目的。 本文在引入水产品期货市场的概念，论述成功建立水产品期货市场所需具备 的七点要素，阐述发挥水产品期货市场规避风险、价格发现以及资源配置三大基 本功能的重要意义及对国内外农产品期货和水产品期货实践的经验分析基础上， 从水产品现货市场规模、产业内因素、期货市场发展水平的角度出发，采用多元 统计中的因子分析法，利用 SPSS 统计软件，并与其他 14 个主要水产品生产及期 货交易较活跃的国家相比较，对中国水产品期货上市的可行性从整体上进行了实 证分析，获得各国水产品期货合约上市可行性的综合得分，最终对各国水产品期 货合约上市的可行性进行比较排序和分析。分析结果显示，水产品期货合约上市 可行性排名中，美国位列第一，挪威排名第二，中国在 15 个国家中排名第三，分 析结果比较符合客观情况，中国水产品期货上市的前景较明朗。 最后在综合前文分析的基础上，对我国水产品期货市场的建设进行了展望， 指出水产品期货合约标的物、交易单位、交割制度等方面的设计要点，同时提出 了建设水产品期货市场还需完善的方面，包括完善水产品现货市场，建立统一的 水产品质量标准与检验检疫体系，加强水产品流通渠道的建设，加快渔民合作组 织的发展和加强教育宣传四个方面。水产品期货市场的构建，需要汲取期货交易 所、专家学者、政府机构、渔业合作组织等的共同智慧，期待在大家的共同努力 下，水产品期货合约能够早日上市。 关键词，中国，水产品，期货，可行性，因子分析II Analysis on Feasibility of Building up Futures Markets of Chinese Fishery Products ABSTRACT The agricultural futures market of China is developing rapidly in the last twenty years, and it has become the world’s second-biggest agricultural futures market after the United States now. The development of the futures market helps the agricultural market participants avoids the market risks, not only perfects the agricultural products market system, but also enriches the circulation system. In the mean time, both the production and trade volume of fishery products in China take lead in the world. With the introducing of the futures market mechanism into aquatic products transaction, and regarding futures price as the spot production guidelines, it will enable the aquatic products producers, processors and exporter to effectively grasp the market price dynamic, then realized the purpose of avoiding risk and smoothing their earnings. On the basis of presenting the concepts of the aquatic products futures market, and analyzing seven elements contributed to successfully building it, then stating the importance of the basic function it will play—avoiding risk, discovering price, resource allocation, as well as summing up the practical experiences of the agricultural futures market and shrimps futures market domestic and overseas, this paper explores the feasibility of building up futures markets of Chinese fishery products with Factor Analysis, applying SPSS statistical software to complete analysis. In comparison with other 14 countries, where fishery industries are well developed and the futures markets are matured, on the spot market scale, intra-industry factor and futures market developmental level, China overall takes the third place in terms of emerging futures markets of fishery products, the United States comes top of the list followed by Norway. The analysis results are in accordance with the practice, the prospects for building up China’s aquatic produces futures market is relatively bright. At last, the prospect is discussed in this paper, and the main points for the design of the aquatic products futures contract are listed, including subject matter, trading unit and settlement system. At the same time, the improvement and perfection for theIII establishing of the aquatic products futures market should be further made in the aspects below, such as perfecting the fishery products spot market, formulating the uniform quality standards and inspection and quarantine system, reinforcing the building up of circulation channel, speeding up the development of fisherman cooperation organizations, and strengthening publicity and education. It requires absorbing the collective wisdom of the futures exchanges, experts, government and fisherman cooperation organizations for building up the fishery products futures market, the futures contract will be listed soon with those concerned joint efforts. KEY WORDS: China, fishery products, futures, feasibility, factor analysis目 录 第一章 引言 ......................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景、目的及意义......................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ............................................... 1 1.1.2 研究目的 ............................................... 1 1.1.3 研究意义 ............................................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状............................................... 2 1.2.1 国外对于农产品期货的研究现状............................ 2 1.2.2 国内关于农产品期货的研究现状 ........................... 3 1.2.3 国外对于水产品期货市场的研究 ........................... 4 1.3 研究内容与方法............................................... 5 1.3.1 研究内容 ............................................... 5 1.3.2 研究方法 ............................................... 6 1.4 创新与不足之处............................................... 6 1.4.1 报告的研究创新点 ....................................... 6 1.4.2 报告的不足之处 ......................................... 6 第二章 水产品期货市场概述 ........................................... 8 2.1 水产品期货市场的定义及要素....................................8 2.1.1 水产品期货市场的定义 ....................................8 2.1.2 水产品期货市场的要素 ....................................8 2.2 建立水产品期货市场的意义......................................9 2.2.1 水产品期货市场对于水产品生产经营者规避风险的意义 ........9 2.2.2 水产品期货市场对于水产品市场价格发现的意义 .............11 2.2.3 水产品期货市场对于渔业生产经营资源配置的作用 ...........11 第三章 国内外期货市场运行经验研究 .................................. 13 3.1 国内外农产品期货市场运行概况................................ 13 3.1.1 美国农产品期货市场运行概况 ............................ 13 3.1.2 中国农产品期货市场运行概况 ............................ 14 3.2 国外牲畜期货市场运行概况.................................... 15 3.2.1 国外活牛类期货合约介绍 ................................ 15 3.2.2 国外生猪类期货合约介绍 ................................ 16 3.2.3 国外牲畜期货市场发展给我们的启示 ...................... 17 3.3 国外水产品期货市场运行情况研究.............................. 17 3.3.1 国外水产品期货市场运行概况 ............................ 17 3.3.2 国外学者分析研究成果 .................................. 19 第四章 中国水产品期货市场构建可行性的实证分析 ...................... 21 4.1 因子分析法.................................................. 21 4.1.1 因子分析的数学模型 .................................... 21 4.1.2 因子分析的基本步骤 .................................... 22 4.2 水产品期货上市可行性指标变量选取说明........................ 22 4.3 样本指标变量描述分析........................................ 235 4.3.1 15 个样本国水产品现货市场情况.......................... 23 4.3.2 15 个样本国水产品产业内因素描述........................ 24 4.3.3 15 个样本国期货及期权衍生品市场规模与冷藏库容量情况.... 25 4.4 因子分析过程................................................ 27 4.4.1 提取因子 .............................................. 28 4.4.2 因子的命名解释 ........................................ 29 4.4.3 计算因子得分 .......................................... 30 4.4.4 水产品期货上市可行性综合得分及排名 .................... 31 4.5 模型结论分析................................................ 32 第五章 建立我国水产品期货市场的展望 ................................ 33 5.1 水产品期货合约设计要点...................................... 33 5.1.1 水产品期货合约标的物的选取 ............................ 33 5.1.2 水产品期货合约交易单位的设计 .......................... 34 5.1.3 水产品期货合约交割制度设计 ............................ 34 5.2 建立水产品期货市场所需完善的环节............................ 35 5.2.1 完善水产品现货市场 .................................... 35 5.2.2 建立统一的水产品质量标准与检验检疫体系 ................ 35 5.2.3 加强水产品流通渠道的建设 .............................. 36 5.2.4 加快渔民合作组织的发展和加强教育宣传 .................. 36 小 结 ............................................................. 37