房地产业是国民经济的支柱产业，对 GDP 有重要的拉动作用。房地产投资 开发由于具有投资收益水平相对较高，容易获得金融机构融资支持等特点，已成 为社会投资的热点。但房地产开发过程十分复杂，具有投资大、周期长、流动性 差等缺陷，并存收益和风险。因此在进行房地产投资前要进行详细的调研，这就 需要进行可行性研究，充分了解当前的市场环境，将风险降到最低。随着我国房 地产行业的发展，已出现一系列问题，如销售规模触顶、利润率降低、竞争激烈 等，开发商发展遭遇瓶颈，面临越来越复杂的市场环境，项目可行性研究显得额 外重要。 本文采用理论分析和实证研究、定量分析与定性分析、宏观微观市场研究等 理论方法，并运用 SWOT 分析确定项目定位，最后对项目进行财务评价、风险 评价及敏感性分析等，最终确定项目投资开发是否可行。 本文对天津市经济环境、城市发展规划进行研究分析，并结合京津冀一体化、 滨海新区、自贸区等对天津经济发展的影响等方面的论述完成项目宏观环境的评 价；然后从微观方面对区域房地产市场发展概况、区域规划、海河沿线房地产投 资现状及地块周边竞争项目调研等进行论述。宏观、微观市场环境利于本项目开 发，项目定位为高端智能化精品住宅和面向科技创新型小微企业的创意办公和公 寓产品。最后通过对项目进行财务指标测算得出该项目利润率、内部收益率为及 投资回收期等指标，并进行经济评价，该项目满足房地产行业要求的利润率和内 部收益率大于 10%的要求，项目在财务上可以接受，并通过敏感性分析、风险评 价得出项目抗风险能力较强，可行开发的结论。 关键词，房地产项目投资；可行性研究；天钢柳林副中心；敏感性分析4 ABSTRACT The real estate industry, as the pillar industry of national economy, has important pushing effect on GDP. With the rapid development of Chinese economy, the real estate investment has become a hot social investment. Its relatively high levels of investment income in the next few years make it easy to gain financing support from financial institutions. However, in the process of real estate development, problems such as mass investment, poor liquidity, coexistence of income and risk make it necessary to carry on detailed investigation and research before real estate investment. With the development of China's real estate industry, there have been a series of problems, such as sales volume peaked, lower profit margins, the project feasibility study seems extra important . In this paper, methods of theoretical analysis and empirical research, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, macro and micro market research are applied in the thorough study of the steel project together with the SWOT analysis and finally the project financial evaluation, risk assessment and sensitivity analysis, and ultimately determine the investment and development projects is feasible or not. The macro research part of the paper mainly includes the control analysis of National and Tianjin market environment, Tianjin’s economic position analysis, the integration analysis of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and introduction of Binhai New Area and Tianjin Free Trade Zone, while the micro analysis part focuses on the regional real estate development, surrounding competing projects and housing demand research.Macro and micro market environment conducive to the development of this project. This project is positioned as high-end boutique residential and intelligence-oriented scientific and technological micro businesses Creative office and apartment products. Finally, with the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, through economic calculation, project cash flow analysis and analysis of advantages and disadvantages, it’s concluded that the steel project is of high levels of income and feasible, and through sensitivity analysis, risk assessment project drawn strong anti-risk capability, develop feasible conclusion. KEY WORDS: Real Estate Investment; Feasibility study; Tiangang-Liulin sub-center; Sensitivity Analysis5 目 录 第一章绪论....................................................................................................................1 1.1 本文研究背景..........................................................................................................1 1.2 本文研究的意义......................................................................................................1 1.3 国内外研究现状......................................................................................................2 1.4 本文研究方法和技术路线......................................................................................3 第二章房地产项目可行性研究的相关理论和方法....................................................5 2.1 房地产项目可行性研究的含义与作用..................................................................5 2.2 房地产项目可行性研究的内容..............................................................................6 2.3 项目可行性研究流程..............................................................................................7 第三章天津经济环境分析............................................................................................9 3.1 天津市经济环境.....................................................................................................9 3.1.1 天津市概况....................................................................................................9 3.1.2 经济环境分析.............................................................................................10 3.2 天津发展规划和定位...........................................................................................12 3.2.1“北方经济中心”...........................................................................................12 3.2.2“京津冀一体化”...........................................................................................12 3.2.3 天津发展规划——“一主两副” ..................................................................13 3.2.4 海河发展规划..............................................................................................16 3.2.5 滨海新区与自贸区的发展..........................................................................18 第四章天津市房地产市场分析..................................................................................19 4.1 房地产市场发展概况............................................................................................19 4.1.1 天津年住宅市场概况..................................................................................20 4.1.2 天津写字楼市场..........................................................................................22 4.1.3 天津商业市场..............................................................................................28 4.1.4 天津公寓市场..............................................................................................30 4.2 海河沿线房地产投资现状....................................................................................34 4.3 海河后五公里区域介绍........................................................................................36 第五章天钢房地产项目开发可行性分析..................................................................37 5.1 项目概况................................................................................................................37 5.1.1 规模指标......................................................................................................37 5.1.2 交通分析......................................................................................................39 5.1.3 区位环境分析..............................................................................................396 5.1.4 周边竞品分析..............................................................................................42 5.2 项目 SWOT 分析 ..................................................................................................43 5.3 项目定位分析........................................................................................................45 5.3.1 业态定位......................................................................................................45 5.3.2 产品定位......................................................................................................48 5.3.3 价格定位......................................................................................................51 5.3.4 配建指标......................................................................................................52 5.4 开发及销售计划....................................................................................................53 5.5 项目盈利能力分析................................................................................................54 5.5.1 销售收入预测..............................................................................................54 5.5.2 项目开发成本测算......................................................................................56 5.5.3 项目盈利能力分析......................................................................................57 5.6 项目财务分析........................................................................................................57 5.6.1 项目年度资金需求测算..............................................................................57 5.6.2 经营收入测算..............................................................................................59 5.6.3 现金流量测算..............................................................................................59 5.7 项目经济评价........................................................................................................60 5.7.1 财务净现值与内部收益率..........................................................................60 5.7.2 项目盈亏平衡分析......................................................................................60 5.7.3 项目敏感性分析..........................................................................................61 5.7.4 项目对社会影响分析..................................................................................61 5.7.5 项目风险评价及初步应对措施..................................................................62 结论与展望..................................................................................................................63 结论.......................................................................................................................63 展望.......................................................................................................................63