从20世纪30年代美国政府运用项目可行性研究方法获得田纳西河流域开发 的巨大成功以来，在随后的 70 余年时间内，项目可行性研究理论与方法获得了 长足发展。随着技术科学、管理科学和自然科学的发展，可行性研究已经逐步发 展成为一门跨领域的综合性学科。作为工程项目组织管理和评价的科学方法，可 行性研究在企业投资和工程项目领域得到了广泛应用。 自党的“十七大”将“解决好三农问题”提高到战略高度以来，作为“三农 问题”之一的农业问题得到了国内外企业界更广泛的关注和进一步的重视。农药 是农业的润滑剂，作为一种优良的农药，草甘膦具有高效、低毒、低残留、杀草 谱广等优良品质，可广泛用于果园、茶园、公路铁路沿线、排灌沟渠、油库及工 厂空地。2006 年草甘膦在全球的销售额占全球除草剂总销售额的 35%以上，且每 年以 25%以上的速度递增，具有非常广阔的市场前景。 龙达公司是全国农药行业上市公司龙头之一，主要生产各种类型的农药，为 了适应国家的有关政策变化,满足除草剂年均消费增长率达 10%的市场需求，龙 达公司拟在“十一五”规划中重点对农药产品结构进行升级，大力增加农药除草 剂比例，使公司农药杀虫剂与除草剂比例达到发达国家水平。 本文在项目管理的理论框架下，运用可行性研究的具体方法和手段，对龙达 公司草甘膦扩建投资项目进行了具体分析。本文从市场可行性分析、建设生产方 案设计、环境保护、项目实施、财务分析、风险评估与控制分析等方面，立足于 市场、技术、环境、组织、财务、风险等不同视角，对该项目的可行性进行分析。 在研究过程中，本文采取规范分析和实证分析相结合、分析归纳、比较对比等研 究方法，从不同层面对该项目进行了可行性论证，并且创造性的运用实物期权法 对该项目的财务效益进行了评估。在文章的最后，综合所研究的内容，对该项目 给出了综合性结论；本文还结合项目实施过程中应关注的重点问题，提出了有关 建议和对策。 作者希望，通过本研究报告为龙达公司草甘膦扩建投资项目提供正确的投资II 决策依据。同时，也希望本研究报告能够成为该行业类似项目的可行性研究案例 范本。 关键词，可行性研究 实物期权法 草甘膦III Abstract Since 1930s the U.S. government achieved great success in development of Tennessee River Basin by means of project feasibility study, the methods and theories for project feasibility study have enjoyed a rapid development in the following 70 years. With the development of technical sciences, management sciences and natural sciences, feasibility study has already become an integrated cross-cutting discipline. As a scientific method for project management and evaluation, feasibility study is widely used in business investment and engineering projects. Since “solving three dimensional rural issues” has been raised to a strategic height in the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, agricultural problem as one of these issues obtained more extensive attention. Pesticide is the lubricant of agriculture and glyphosaten is an excellent one with many advantages such as high efficiency, low toxicity, low residual and wide weed control spectrum. It can be widely used in orchards, tea gardens, alongside roads and railways, irrigation and drainage ditches, oil storage and factories. In 2006, the sales volume of glyphosate accounts for 35% of the gross sales volume of herbicide globally and increases as the speed of 25% annually, thus the production of glyphosaten posses a widely market prospect. LongDa Company is a leading listed company of national pesticide industry which product various kinds of pesticide. To adapt some change of government policy and satisfy the market demand of the 10% consumption increase rate of herbicide annually, LongDa Company focus on upgrading the pesticide product structure, increasing the rate of pesticide herbicide in “the Eleventh Five-Year Plan” so as to make the company’s proportion of insecticide and herbicide to the same level of developed countries. In this paper, by the theoretical framework of project management, some specific methods of feasibility study are employed to analyze the glyphosate expansion project of Longda Corporation. From the perspectives of market, technology, environment, corganization, finance and risk, this paper analyzes the feasibility of this project in the following aspects: feasibility analysis of market, the design of building and production, feasibility analysis of environmental protection,project implementation, analysis on finance ,analysis of risk estimate and control. In the process of study, some research methods (e.g. combination of normative analysis with empirical analysis, inductive analysis, and comparison & contrast, etc.) are used to analyze the feasibility of the project from different perspectives and, creatively, the Real Option Method is employed to estimate the financial benefits of this project. Finally, synthesizing the stuying contents,a synthetic conclusion is reachend of the project. In accordance with the key issues in project implementation, some proposals and countermeasures are put forward in this paper. It’s hoped by the author that this report will provide a basis for correct decision making for the glyphosate expansion project of Longda Company. Plus, it’s also expected that this study report could become a template of feasibility study for similar projects in the industry. Keywords: feasibility study, Real Option Method, glyphosateIV 目 录 0 绪论 ...................................................1 0.1 本文的选题背景...............................................................................................1 0.2 研究的实际价值与理论意义...........................................................................1 0.2.1 报告的实际价值......................................................................................1 0.2.2 理论意义..................................................................................................2 0.3 国内外研究现状...............................................................................................2 0.3.1 国外项目可行性研究的文献综述.........................................................2 0.3.2 国内项目可行性研究的文献综述..........................................................4 0.4 本文的内容结构、主要方法及可能的创新之处...........................................5 0.4.1 内容结构..................................................................................................5 0.4.2 研究方法..................................................................................................6 0.4.3 本文可能的创新之处..............................................................................6 1 项目可行性研究概述 .....................................7 1.1 项目可行性研究的内涵...................................................................................7 1.2 项目可行性研究的研究内容和主要作用.......................................................7 1.3 项目可行性研究的基本方法...........................................................................8 2 龙达公司草甘膦项目市场可行性分析.......................10 2.1 项目背景和政策依据.....................................................................................10 2.2 项目发展概况................................................................................................10 2.2.1 已进行的调查研究项目.......................................................................10 2.2.2 技术工艺试制情况...............................................................................10 2.2.3 厂址初勘和初步测量工作情况...........................................................10 2.3 项目市场需求与预测分析............................................................................ 11 2.3.1 产品性能调查........................................................................................ 11 2.3.2 产品市场调查........................................................................................ 11 2.3.3 需求预测................................................................................................14 2.3.4 价格预测................................................................................................16 2.3.5 营销战略设计........................................................................................16 3 龙达公司草甘膦项目技术可行性分析.......................18 3.1 资源和原材料条件分析.................................................................................18 3.1.1 资源调查................................................................................................18 3.1.2 原材料及主要辅助材料供应................................................................18 3.1.3 燃动力供应............................................................................................18 3.2 厂址选择分析.................................................................................................19 3.2.1 项目选址................................................................................................19 3.2.2 交通条件................................................................................................19 3.2.3 建设条件................................................................................................19 3.3 项目规模.........................................................................................................19 3.3.1 生产规模................................................................................................19 3.3.2 项目构成................................................................................................19 3.3.3 产品标准................................................................................................19 3.4 生产技术方案可行性分析.............................................................................20V 3.4.1 草甘膦主要生产工艺介绍....................................................................20 3.4.2 生产工艺的比较和选择........................................................................20 3.4.3 技术参数和工艺流程............................................................................21 3.4.4 主要工艺设备选择................................................................................22 3.4.5 主要原材料............................................................................................22 3.5 总平面布置、运输和仓储方案.....................................................................23 3.5.1 总平面布置方案....................................................................................23 3.5.2 运输方案................................................................................................23 3.5.3 仓储方案................................................................................................24 3.6 土建工程方案.................................................................................................24 3.7 配套工程方案.................................................................................................24 3.7.1 给水方案................................................................................................24 3.7.2 排水方案................................................................................................25 3.7.3 供电方案................................................................................................25 3.7.4 通讯方案................................................................................................26 3.7.5 供热方案................................................................................................26 3.7.6 空压方案................................................................................................26 3.7.7 供冷方案................................................................................................27 3.7.8 维修方案................................................................................................28 4 龙达公司草甘膦项目环境保护可行性分析 ..................29 4.1 建设地区的环境现状分析.............................................................................29 4.1.1 项目的地质状况....................................................................................29 4.1.2 气候条件................................................................................................29 4.1.3 大气及气象环境....................................................................................30 4.1.4 水环境....................................................................................................30 4.2 项目主要污染物.............................................................................................30 4.2.1 废水排放................................................................................................30 4.2.2 废气排放................................................................................................30 4.2.3 噪声排放................................................................................................31 4.3 环境保护与综合利用方案.............................................................................31 4.3.1 项目拟采用的环境保护标准................................................................31 4.3.2 环境保护与综合利用总体原则............................................................31 4.3.3 工业废水处理........................................................................................31 4.3.4 工业废气处理........................................................................................33 4.3.5 工业噪声处理........................................................................................33 4.3.6 环境影响评论结论................................................................................33 4.4 节能降耗.........................................................................................................33 4.4.1 项目能耗................................................................................................33 4.4.2 节能措施综述........................................................................................34 5 龙达公司草甘膦项目实施方案与组织可行性分析.............35 5.1 劳动保护.........................................................................................................35 5.1.1 生产过程中职业危害因素分析............................................................35 5.1.2 职业安全卫生防护措施........................................................................35 5.2 消防安全.........................................................................................................35VI 5.3 生产组织.........................................................................................................36 5.4 劳动定员和人员培训.....................................................................................36 5.5 项目实施阶段.................................................................................................37 6 龙达公司草甘膦项目财务可行性分析 ......................39 6.1 项目投资估算.................................................................................................39 6.1.1 投资估算依据和方法............................................................................39 6.1.2 固定资产投资总额................................................................................39 6.1.3 流动资金估算........................................................................................39 6.1.4 项目总投资费用估算............................................................................39 6.2 资金筹措分析.................................................................................................39 6.2.1 资金来源................................................................................................39 6.2.2 筹资方案................................................................................................40 6.3 投资使用计划.................................................................................................40 6.3.1 投资使用计划........................................................................................40 6.3.2 借款偿还计划........................................................................................40 6.4 生产成本和销售收入估算.............................................................................40 6.4.1 建设期与计算期....................................................................................40 6.4.2 生产总成本估算....................................................................................40 6.4.3 单位成本................................................................................................40 6.4.4 销售收入估算........................................................................................40 6.4.5 现金流估算............................................................................................41 6.5 财务评价.........................................................................................................41 6.5.1 净现值法评价结果................................................................................41 6.5.2 内部收益率法评价结果........................................................................41 6.5.3 投资回收期法评价结果........................................................................41 6.5.4 投资利润率法评价结果........................................................................42 6.5.5 财务评价总论........................................................................................42 6.6 实物期权法在本项目的应用.........................................................................42 6.6.1 实物期权法模型....................................................................................42 6.6.2 运用实物期权法对本项目的评价结果................................................43 7 龙达公司草甘膦项目风险评估与控制可行性分析 ............44 7.1 风险分析的基本理论.....................................................................................44 7.2 盈亏平衡分析.................................................................................................45 7.3 敏感性分析.....................................................................................................45 7.4 项目实施过程中应注意的风险因素.............................................................46 结论与建议..............................................48 附录....................................................49