房地产行业作为国民经济的支柱产业之一，在经济及社会生活中 起到越来越巨大的关键作用。特别是近年来，公众对于房价走势、土 地政策等相关事件的关注异乎寻常，房地产行业的发展走势，直接影 响着国计民生。对房地产开发项目进行系统项目策划和可行性研究， 可以帮助项目开发单位确定项目是否应该投资和如何投资，为项目的 最终决策提供可靠、科学的依据，并形成开展下一步工作的基础。 本文以天津滨海新区北塘经济区的 THLS 项目为例，从该项目所 处的政策及市场环境开始分析，依据并结合了一系列相关资料和数 据，进行了相关趋势分析，说明了滨海新区房地产市场发展的现状及 未来的发展蓝图。同时，结合了国家及天津市近年来出台的一系列关 于土地、建筑、房地产、金融等相关的法律法规，分析了宏观经济及 相关政策对本项目的实际影响。在分析过程中，采用了 SWOT 分析 等技术手段，对本项目的优势、劣势、机遇及挑战进行了详细分析， 并对项目进行系统策划，提出了项目开发思路。同时，以市场调研的 结果为基础，对本项目做出了包括投资成本估算和收益分析等市场定 位和财务分析，最后通过对相关报表进行分析来评价项目的盈利能力 及抗风险能力，实现了项目的开发风险分析，并论证了相关风险的防 范方法。 本篇报告的主要研究目的是通过对本项目的可行性研究和项目 策划，使项目的实际投资决策及开发建设过程更加科学化，以最终起 到应有的实际作用。 关键词，房地产，可行性，项目策划，财务评价，北塘Abstract As one of the pillar industries of national economy, real estate industry plays increasingly key role in economy and social life. Especially in recent years, public pay unusual attentions to housing price trends, land policy and related events. The development trends of real estate industry affect the national economy and the people’s livelihood directly. The systematic planning and feasibility study on the real estate development projects can help the project companies to make decisions about whether they can invest and how to invest. The study can also provide the reliable and scientific evidences for the final decisions and the foundation for the next step. This paper takes THLS project in Beitang, Binhai, Tianjin as an example, starts the analysis form policies and market environments, analyzes the trends based on a series of related materials and datum as well as analyzing the current situation and development prospect of the estate market in Binhai. Meanwhile, we combine a serial of recent laws and registrations related to land, construction, real estate and finance issued by the states and Tianjin government to analyze the impact of macro-economy and related policies on the project. In the process of analysis, we adopt SWOT analysis and other technical tools to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges of the project in detail, plan the project systematically and put forward the development idea for the project. At the same time, we complete the market positioning and financial analysis include investment cost estimate, profits analysis according to the results of market research. Finally, we evaluate the profitability, debt paying ability and risk resistance capacity of the project base on the related reports, accomplish the development risk analysis of the project and prove the potential risks and how to prevent them. The main purpose of the paper is to make the planning and feasibility studies have practical meaning in order to scientize the processes of investment decision and development construction. Key words: real estate, feasibility, planning, financial analysis, Beitang目 录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................1 1.1 报告选题背景 ...............................................................................................1 1.2 报告研究意义 ...............................................................................................1 1.3 报告研究目标 ...............................................................................................2 1.4 报告主要结构 ...............................................................................................2 第二章 房地产项目可行性研究及策划理论综述 .....................................................3 2.1 房地产可行性研究理论综述 .......................................................................3 2.2 房地产项目策划理论综述 ...........................................................................6 第三章 项目概况分析 .................................................................................................9 3.1 地理位置 .......................................................................................................9 3.2 规划指标 .......................................................................................................9 3.3 地块情况 .....................................................................................................10 3.4 交通状况 .....................................................................................................11 3.5 周边环境 .....................................................................................................11 3.6 项目开发单位 .............................................................................................12 第四章 项目背景分析 ...............................................................................................14 4.1 天津市北方经济中心地位凸显 .................................................................14 4.2 滨海新区开发开放与生态宜居城市建设驶入快车道 .............................15 4.3 北塘地区在滨海新区发展中的关键作用日渐凸显 .................................16 4.4 特色旅游区是实现北塘片区规划定位的重要功能区 .............................17 4.5 生态休闲度假成为消费升级的重要内容 .................................................18 4.6 天津房地产业发展提速，滨海新区增长潜力巨大 .................................18 4.7 商业与地产的深度合作成为房地产行业的重要特征 .............................19 第五章 市场分析 .......................................................................................................21 5.1 天津住宅市场分析 .....................................................................................21 5.2 天津商业地产市场分析 .............................................................................23 5.3 区域市场分析 .............................................................................................25 5.4 项目素质分析（ SWOT 分析） ................................................................30 第六章 项目策划方案 ...............................................................................................32 6.1 项目基本定位 .............................................................................................32 6.2 项目发展思路 .............................................................................................346.3 项目规划理念 .............................................................................................34 6.4 目标客户群分析 .........................................................................................39 6.5 住宅部分初步推广方案 .............................................................................40 6.6 商业部分初步推广方案 .............................................................................41 6.7 项目开发计划 .............................................................................................49 第七章 项目投资收益分析及风险评估 ...................................................................50 7.1 主要经济技术指标与估算假设条件 .........................................................50 7.2 主要指标估算 .............................................................................................50 7.3 项目静态盈利分析 .....................................................................................52 7.4 项目动态效益分析 .....................................................................................53 7.5 项目整体经济效益分析评价 .....................................................................56 7.6 风险评估与对策 .........................................................................................56 第八章 结论及展望 ...................................................................................................59 8.1 结论 .............................................................................................................59 8.2 展望 .............................................................................................................59