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DS房产公司养老地产项目可行性研究报告DOC

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在世界人口老龄化的大趋势下,中国呈现出老龄人口多、增长速度快的特点。 宁波市第六次全国人口普查数据表明,宁波市常住人口中 60 岁及以上人口为 100.8171 万人,占总人口的 13.26﹪,65 岁及以上人口为 65.4750 万人,占总人口的 8.61﹪,正处于人口老龄化加速发展的初期阶段。预计 2019 年和 2029 年,老年人 口比重将达到 25%和 33%。2015 年老龄化水平为 22.1%,老人数将达到 132.81 万 人,全面进入老龄化社会。同时,宁波区位优势明显,经济基础良好,人文底蕴深 厚,房地产高速发展的时代已经结束,具备发展高端休闲养老地产项目的现实基础。 同时就 DS 集团自身来说重资产项目已经很难取得高回报,建设一个标志性的高端 休闲养老地产是企业转型升级的契机。 本报告以公司的东钱湖 412 项目进行可行性研究,找出宁波发展高端休闲养老 地产项目需要关注的要点和问题。本报告以项目背景和研究意义开篇,其次详细分 析项目投资环境和宁波市场基本状况,点出在宁波发展高端休闲养老地产项目的现 实基础。接下来,本文通过项目选址点出高端休闲养老地产的选址原则,不同的区 域的比较优势,指出选址东钱湖区域发展高端休闲养老地产项目的科学性。第四部 分具体阐述项目的定位、产品规划方案、项目 SWOT 分析、项目建设安排和具体的 运作安排,对项目做了较为完整的解读。第五部分针对项目具体指标和工程建设方 案,分析项目成本和资金筹措方案。最后,通过前面完整阐述项目各个方面情况, 指出项目对宁波、对东钱湖、对企业自身以及对养老产业的深远影响,并客观进行 风险分析,提出风险控制的手段和措施。 通过可行性分析,虽然资金压力比较大,但是项目还是可行的。项目还需注重 以下方面,前期策划需要更详实精准,战略资源引入更为严谨,开发建设过程中在 注重后期运营效果的同时严格成本控制,后期的可持续经营注重服务的品质和精神 价值的体现。 关键词,养老地产;区位;项目建设II Abstract In the great trend of aging population in the world,China shows the characteristics of large aging population and fast growing。The sixth national population census of Ningbo shows that,the population aged 65 and above is 1008171 people and take the proportion of the city resident population reached 13.26%,the population aged 65 and above is 654750 and take the proportion reached 8.61%,Ningbo is in the early stage of accelerated development of aging population。It is expected the proportion of the elderly population will reach 25% and 33% in 2019 and 2029 respectively。In 2015 ,the aging level is 22.1%, the aging number will reach 1328100 people and the city will enter the aging society. Ningbo has location advantage、good economic foundation and deeply culture heritage,in the end of high speed of real estate development, the city has the real foundation of developing the high-end leisure endowment real estate project. Meanwhile, it is very difficult for DS Group to get high return from heavy asset projects, building a landmark high-end leisure endowment real estate project is a good chance for company to realize the transformation and upgrading. The paper targets at the feasible study of DongQianLake project, in order to find out the key point and difficulty in high-end leisure endowment real estate project in Ningbo. The paper begins with the introduction and results of research, and analyzing the project investment environment and market condition in Ningbo, finding out the real foundation for high-end leisure endowment real estate project. Thirdly, the paper introduces the location principle of high-end leisure endowment real estate project, through comparing the different areas advantages and disadvantages, it emphasizes the scientific nature of the project in DongQianLake. Fourthly, the paper introduces the location, the planning , the SWOT analysis, the construction schedule and specific operation arrangement of the project. Fifthly, In view of the project specific targets and engineering construction scheme, the paper analysis the cost and finance plan. In the last, according to the integrity description of the project aspects, the paper points the project’s influence for Ningbo, DongqianLake, enterprise and pension industry, and carries out risk analysis objectively, the puts forward the means and measures of risk control. Through the feasibility analysis, the paper thinks that, although the financial pressure is relatively great, but the project is still feasible. The project also need to pay attention to the following aspects: pre- planning needs more detailed and accurate, introducingIII strategic resources needs more rigorous, the development and construction process needs control cost strictly in the line of underling operation effect, and later sustainable operation needs more service quality and spiritual value. Key word: Endowment real estate;Location;Project constructionIV 目 录 摘要.................................................................................................................................... I ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................ II 第 1 章 引言....................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景及研究意义............................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究文献综述............................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外研究现状......................................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内研究现状......................................................................................................2 1.3 本文的研究思路与研究方法................................................................................4 1.3.1 研究思路.............................................................................................................4 1.3.2 研究方法.............................................................................................................4 1.4 本文的研究内容结构安排....................................................................................4 1.5 本文的创新与不足................................................................................................5 1.5.1 创新.....................................................................................................................5 1.5.2 不足.....................................................................................................................5 第 2 章 项目投资环境与市场研究................................................................................6 2.1 宁波老龄市场分析................................................................................................6 2.1.1 宁波老龄化发展状况和趋势.............................................................................6 2.1.2 宁波养老模式现状.............................................................................................6 2.1.3 宁波养老机构现状.............................................................................................7 2.1.4 各级政府政策.....................................................................................................8 2.2 宁波房地产市场分析............................................................................................9 2.2.1 宁波土地市场...................................................................................................10 2.2.2 宁波住宅市场...................................................................................................10 2.2.3 宁波公寓市场...................................................................................................11 2.2.4 宁波商业市场...................................................................................................11 2.2.5 宁波办公市场...................................................................................................12 2.3 宁波养老地产项目的历史分析..........................................................................13 2.4 高端休闲养老地产现实基础..............................................................................14 2.4.1 战略转型机遇...................................................................................................14 2.4.2 发展高端休闲养老的意义...............................................................................15 第 3 章 项目选址分析..................................................................................................17 3.1 选址原则..............................................................................................................17 V 3.1.1 环境优美、交通便捷原则...........................................................................17 3.1.2 设施完善、生活便利原则...........................................................................17 3.1.3 社会和谐、文明和美原则...........................................................................17 3.1.4 政策扶持、适度倾斜原则...........................................................................18 3.1.5 以人为本、品质提升原则...........................................................................18 3.2 可选区域比较分析..............................................................................................18 3.2.0 奉化阳光海湾区域...........................................................................................18 3.2.1 宁海湾区域...................................................................................................20 3.2.2 象山大目湾区域...........................................................................................22 3.2.3 胡陈港区域...................................................................................................24 3.2.4 东钱湖旅游度假区域...................................................................................25 3.3 比选和结论 .............................................................................................................27 3.3.1 对阳光海湾的综合评估...................................................................................27 3.3.2 对宁海湾的综合评估.......................................................................................27 3.3.3 对象山大目湾的综合评估...............................................................................27 3.3.4 对胡陈港的综合评估.......................................................................................28 3.3.5 对东钱湖旅游度假的综合评估.......................................................................28 3.3.6 选址建议...........................................................................................................29 第 4 章 项目设计..........................................................................................................30 4.1 公司概况..............................................................................................................30 4.2 项目定位..............................................................................................................30 4.2.1 整体形象定位...................................................................................................30 4.2.2 客户定位...........................................................................................................30 4.2.3 价值体系构成...................................................................................................31 4.3 产品规划..............................................................................................................32 4.3.1 规划方案...........................................................................................................32 4.3.2 产品建议...........................................................................................................32 4.4 SWOT 分析 .........................................................................................................33 4.4.1 优势...................................................................................................................33 4.4.2 劣势...................................................................................................................34 4.4.3 机会...................................................................................................................34 4.4.4 风险...................................................................................................................34 4.5 项目建设安排......................................................................................................35 4.5.1 项目人力资源安排...........................................................................................35 VI 4.5.2 建设进度安排...................................................................................................35 4.6 项目运作模式......................................................................................................35 4.6.1 土地获取方式...................................................................................................35 4.6.2 销售模式...........................................................................................................35 4.6.3 营销模式...........................................................................................................36 4.6.4 服务模式...........................................................................................................36 第 5 章 投资效益分析..................................................................................................37 5.1 投资估算..............................................................................................................37 5.1.1 投资估算依据...................................................................................................37 5.1.2 建设投资估算...................................................................................................37 5.2 资金筹措..............................................................................................................38 5.3 财务评估..............................................................................................................38 5.3.1 销售收入...........................................................................................................38 5.3.2 盈利分析...........................................................................................................38 5.4 项目影响分析......................................................................................................39 5.4.1 对宁波的影响...................................................................................................39 5.4.2 对东钱湖旅游度假区的影响...........................................................................39 5.4.3 对 DS 集团的影响 ...........................................................................................39 5.4.4 对产业的影响...................................................................................................40 5.5 项目风险分析......................................................................................................40 5.5.1 财务风险...........................................................................................................40 5.5.2 运营风险...........................................................................................................41 5.6 风险控制..............................................................................................................41 5.6.1 财务风险控制...................................................................................................41 5.6.2 运营风险控制...................................................................................................41 研究结论与建议................................................................................................................42