从上个世纪初至今，可行性研究理论实现了质的飞跃，在实践中的运用涉及 到项目运作的各个环节与层面，现今巳形成相对独立的科学研究体系。现代的项 目可行性研究不再是某单一领域的研究分析，涉及到各专业领域，投资项目的开 展需要运用各专业学科理论进行交叉论证分析。当前世界各国在项目可行性研究 体系中取得成果是丰硕的，作为项目可行研究中的重点环节，财务评价和风险管 控方面更是成果显著，这些丰硕的、系统科学的研究成果为现代可行性理论成熟 进一步夯实了基础，可行性研究作为工程项目投资分析的科学办法，在当今社会 经济发展中具有相当的重要性。 四川 YC 工厂是川渝中烟公司主要卷烟生产点之一，是四川省产业龙头企业 和生产密集化企业，并被国家确定为烟草行业 36 户重点企业之一。该工厂随着企 业生产规模的扩大，产品结构的调整，其生产能力巳显不足，制丝工艺适应性较 差，工艺装备技术落后及工艺质量保障能力较低，不能完全满足高端香烟品牌生 产工艺需要，严重影响了四川 YC 工厂的运营和发展。该工厂综合考虑到地处原 地震灾区，原有厂区受损较为严重，原有部份的配套设施及设备无法满足产能的 需求，及目前厂区已无可供持续生产发展的土地，拟对原有的生产厂区进行整体 搬迁改造，故为易地技术改造项目。 本文以四川 YC 工厂易地技术改造工程项目作为可行性研究对象，遵循项目 可行性研究的框架，对该投资项目进行分析研究。该项目可行性研究的主要内容 包含，市场、技术、进度、环境、人力资源等相关可行性分析，着重对财务、风 险管理控制方面进行了论证与分析，以上三方面构成了本文项目可行性研究体 系，并且每一方面均对项目系统论证及项目投资决策有着重大影响，据分析结果 得出该易地技改项目可行性的结论。 本文在调查、系统分析项目实际情况的基础上, 应用风险管理理论、从管理 角度对该易地技术改造项目进行详细风险识别与评价，根据项目风险的表现形 式、存在的具体问题，系统全面的提出监管风险的思路与对策。并在实际风险管 控中提出“三方共管账户”方法，运用信息化的手段对该项目工程建设环节资金 走向进行风险管理, 为投资方的相关决策提供科学的依据与解决办法, 并力求能 为相关行业解决工程管理风险方面提供一个较为理想的管控手段。 关键词，项目技改，可行性，财务，风险管理II ABSTRACT From the 1930s to date, the feasibility of theory and practice has achieved a rapid development, and has basically formed a relatively independent discipline system. Now the project feasibility study is no longer analysis of a single area, it involves various professional fields. Development of investment projects requires the use of professional cross demonstration analysis of the theory. Nowadays many countries achieved fruitful results in the field of project feasibility, particularly financial evaluation, risk management and control. These achievements have strengthened the foundation systems for scientific research of the modern feasibility theory. Therefore, as a scientific approach to project investment analysis, feasibility study has a great significance in the social and economic development of the modern world. Sichuan YC plant is one of the main cigarette productions belonging to ChuanYu Tobacco Company. It is the leading enterprise and production intensive industry of Sichuan Province and is one of the national 36 key enterprises of the tobacco industry. With the expansion of production scale and product structure adjustment, its production capacity has been significantly fell behind. Poor technology of processing line of cigarette, backward technical process and facilities, and low technology quality assurance capabilities cannot fully meet the upscale brand of cigarettes technique of production need and seriously affect the operating and growth of Sichuan YC plant. The plant is located in the former earthquake-stricken area, which has serious damage to the original factory. The original part of the facilities and equipment can not meet the demand of production, and the plant has no land available for development of sustainable production. The original production plant is planned to relocate and transform. It is the relocation and upgrade project. The content of this thesis focuses on the feasibility of the Sichuan YC transformation project. Its objective is to conduct analysis and research on the investment project in accordance with the framework of the feasibility study. The main elements of the feasibility study include: marketing, technology, progress, environment, human resources and other related feasibility analysis. The focus is on financial analysis, risk management, control and demonstration of these three aspects which constitute the project feasibility study in this article system, and each has a significant impact on allIII aspects of the system demonstration and project investment decisions. According to the analysis of the results, obtain conclusions of the feasibility of the project. On the basis of investigation and systematic analysis, this thesis details the risk identification and evaluation of the project from a management point of view. Propose regulatory risks ideas and countermeasures systematically and comprehensively according to the form of project risk. Propose the tripartite condominium account method in actual control of risks. By information technologies, try to manage risk for the project funding towards the construction aspects, to provide a scientific basis and solutions for decision-maker and investors, and seeks to provide a more ideal reference model for the management of risk assessment. Keywords: Technological Transformation Project ， Feasibility ， Finance ， Risk ManagementIV 目录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究内容和主要思路 ........................................................................................ 3 1.2.1 研究内容及技术方法 .............................................................................. 3 1.2.2 研究的结构框架 ...................................................................................... 4 1.3 本文的特点 ........................................................................................................ 5 第二章 项目可行性理论综述........................................................................................ 6 2.2 国内外项目可行性研究发展现状 .................................................................... 6 2.2.1 国外项目可行性研究发展状况 .............................................................. 6 2.2.2 国内项目可行性研究发展状况 .............................................................. 7 项目可行性研究的一般理论和方法................................................................ 8 2.3.1 项目可行性研究的目标与主要作用 ...................................................... 9 2.3.2 项目可行性研究的基本原则 ................................................................ 10 2.3.3 项目可行性研究的基本方法 ................................................................ 10 第三章 四川 YC 工厂易地技术改造项目相关可行性分析....................................... 13 3.1 易地改造项目的必要性 .................................................................................. 13 3.2 市场预测 .......................................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 国内市场供需现状 ................................................................................ 15 3.2.2 产品市场供需预测 ................................................................................ 16 3.2.3 建设生产规模 ........................................................................................ 17 3.3 项目建设方案分析 .......................................................................................... 17 3.3.1 项目建设用地情况 ................................................................................ 17 3.3.2 易地技改项目组成 ................................................................................ 18 3.3.3 技术方案 ................................................................................................ 18 3.3.4 生产物流系统及平面运输 .................................................................... 21 3.3.5 土建工程技术方案 ................................................................................ 21 3.3.6 电气工程与给排水技术方案 ................................................................ 22 3.3.7 采暖通风和制冷 .................................................................................... 22 3.3.8 网络及信息化系统 ................................................................................ 22 3.4 绿色环保、安全、建设进度及人力资源配置 .............................................. 23 2.3V 3.4.1 绿色工厂建设 ........................................................................................ 23 3.4.2 劳动安全与消防卫生 ............................................................................ 23 3.4.3 组织机构与人力配置资源配置 ............................................................ 24 3.4.4 项目建设进度 ........................................................................................ 24 第四章 四川 YC 工厂易地技术改造项目财务可行性分析....................................... 26 4.1 项目投资估算 .................................................................................................. 26 4.1.1 估算依据与方法 .................................................................................... 26 4.1.2 投资概况 ................................................................................................ 26 4.1.3 流动资金估算 ........................................................................................ 26 4.1.4 筹资方案 ................................................................................................ 27 4.1.5 投资估算 ................................................................................................ 28 4.2 项目成本估算 .................................................................................................. 30 4.2.1 产品成本估算 ........................................................................................ 30 4.2.2 项目收益预测 ........................................................................................ 31 4.3 基本财务报表 .................................................................................................. 31 4.4 项目财务评价 .................................................................................................. 32 4.4.1 项目盈利能力分析 ................................................................................ 32 4.4.2 项目清偿能力分析 ................................................................................ 35 4.4.3 项目不确定性分析 ................................................................................ 35 第五章 四川 YC 工厂易地技术改造项目中管理风险分析....................................... 40 5.1 四川 YC 工厂易地技术改造项目风险识别和评价....................................... 41 5.1.1 项目风险识别 ........................................................................................ 41 5.1.2 项目风险评价 ........................................................................................ 43 5.2 四川 YC 工厂易地技术改造主要风险防范对策........................................... 43 第六章 结论.................................................................................................................. 49 6.1 研究结论 .......................................................................................................... 49 6.2 不足与展望 ...................................................................................................... 50 致谢................................................................................................................................ 51