可行性研究是提高企业项目投资决策科学性的必不可少的工作,是促进企业 合理利用资源!保证建设项目以较少的投入获得较大经济效益的一种科学手段, 也是实现建设项目在技术上先进!经济上合理!建设上可行的科学方法 本文以中国传动要成立的高特齿轮箱制造有限公司项目为研究对象,对此项 目进行了可行性研究主要采用了定性分析与定量评估相结合!静态分析与动态 分析相结合的方法,对项目的市场可行性!技术可行性!企业内部条件!生产能 力!技术方案!营销策略和价格制定!投资估算和资金筹措!成本费用估算!销 售收入及税金等方面进行了较全面和深入的分析研究编制了项目的基本财务报 表,对投资回收期!净现值!财务内部收益率等相关财务指标进行了分析,并给 出了财务评价最后,本文采用了盈亏平衡分析法和敏感性分析法对项目的不确 定性和风险性进行了分析,以提高项目经济的可靠性和决策的科学性 研究结果表明,中国传动投资成立的高特齿轮箱制造有限公司项目可以在设 想的期限内收回成本,并为通用齿轮箱产品的规模生产及新品的开发提供有力保 证并能够因此项目的投产带来可观的经济效益和社会效益,因此该项目是积极 可行的 关键词:可行性分析;财务评价;风险分析AbstraCt硕1报告 AbstraCt Feasibilityreseareh15theneeessaryworktomaketheProjectinvestmentmore seientifie,theseientifiemeanstoenhaneerationalutilizationoftheenterprise,to aehievebettereeonomiefinaneialresultswithlessinPutintoaProjeet.It15alsothe seientifiemethodtomakesuretheProjeet15teehnieallyadvanced,economieally reasonable,andfeasibleineonstruetion. ThisthesisfocusesontheGaoteGearboxManufacturingComPanyProjeet PlannedbyChinatransmissionandmakesfeasibilityanalysisoftheProjeet.By eombinationofqualitativeandquantltativeanalysis,andeombinationofstatieand dynamieanalysis,thoroughanddeePanalysisandresearehhasbeenearriedoutfor market一feasibility,teehnicaifeasibility,iniemaleircurnstanees,Produetioneapaeity, teehniealseheme,markctingstrategy,Prieesetting,investmentestimation,eapital raising,eostestimation,salesrevenueandtaXes.Thebasiefinancialstatemenisofthe Projectwasgiventomakeanalysisoffinaneialindexesineludinginvestmentretum Period,netPresenivalue,intemalrateofretumtoformafinaneialapPraisal.Finall扒 thethesisanalyzeduneertaintyandriskoftheProjeetthroughProfit&1055balance methodandsensitivitymethodtomakesuretheProjeet15economieallyreliableand thedeeision15seie爪ifie. TheresearehresultshowsthattheGaoteGearboxManufacturingCo.,Ltd. investedbyChinatrans而ssioneanPaybacktheeostsintheexPectedPeriodand ensuresealeProduetionofgeneralPurposegearboxesanddeveloPmentofnew Produets.ConsiderableeconomieandsoeialbenefitwillbeachievedaftertheProjeet 15PutintoProduction,thereforetheProjeet15feasible. Keywords:feasibilityanalysis:finaneial叩praise:riskanalysis硕上报告中国传动筹建南京高特齿轮箱制造有限公司项目可行性研究 目录 摘要...............................................................................................I Abstract...,.....0..二...,,.......二..,.......0.0...0.二11 1绪论.,/二/......................................./.........................................1 1.1选题背景...................................................................................................1 1.2研究的意义............................,........................................................2 1.3研究的内容..............................................................................................#3 1.4技术路线及研究方法....................................#4 1.5报告结构...................................................................................................6 2项目可行性研究的相关理论与方法...........................0..........S 2.1项目及其项目管理的相关概念...............................................................8 2.2项目的生命周期.................................................................9 2.3项目可行性研究的主要内容.................................................................10 2.4可行性研究应遵循的原则.....................................................................11 2.5项目经济评价的主要方法.....................................................................12 3项目所处的内外环境分析...........................................................14 3.1项目的市场分析.........................................................14 3.1.1传统齿轮箱产品的市场概述.......................................................14 3.1.2市场发展趋势及需求量预测.......................................................16 3.1.3产品的市场生命周期预测...........................................................17 3.1.4企业可能获得的初始市场分析...................................................18 3.1.5项目的市场资源分析...................................................................18 3.2技术及工艺可行性分析.........................................................................19 3.2.1高特齿轮箱产品的技术状况.......................................................20 3.2.2高特齿轮箱项目实施的工艺技术可行性分析...........................20 3.2.3高特齿轮箱项目实施的设备可行性分析...................................22 3.2.4中国传动技术人员及技术能力状况分析...................................25 3.3中国传动集团内部环境及条件分析.....................................................25 3.3.1企业的营销能力分析...................................................................25 3.3.2企业取得的荣誉...................................................26 4高特齿轮箱产品的生产方案设计..................................../二0..,27 4.1生产技术目标!原则及方案.,.........................................................27 4.1.1生产技术目标及原则...................................................................27目录硕士报告 4.1.2生产技术方案...............................................................................27 4.2高特生产规模方案的设计.............................................,.................28 4.2.1生产能力核定..,......................................................................29 4.2.2交货期的保证...............................................................................31 4.2.3价格管理方案...............................................................................31 4.3人力资源配置方案.................................................................................犯 5项目财务分析及评价..../.......................................................35 5.1项目投资估算.........................................................................................35 5.2项目资金来源及规划.............................................................................36 5.3项目成本估算.........................................................................................37 5.3.1生产成本费用估算.......................................................................37 5.3.2期间费用估算...............................................................................39 5.3.3其他费用估算...............................................................................39 5.4销售收入与税费估算.............................................................................39 5.5项目的综合财务分析.............................................................................40 5.5.1基本财务报表...............................................................................40 5.5.2静态财务指标...............................................................................41 5.5.3动态财务指标...............................................................................42 5.5.4项目的财务效益评估...................................................................43 6项目的风险与不确定性分析............................0/......./..44 6!1项目的财务盈亏平衡分析.....................................................................44 6.2项目的敏感性分析.................................................................................45 7总结和展望二0/.....././.0..../,/00........../0二/.../.48 致谢............../.0..0,00........./............00...........49