4 摘要 当前我国正逐步走入老龄化社会，伴随着社会保障制度不健全，老年人所占人口 比例的迅速上升，养老问题已经成为全社会关注的焦点问题之一，面临着许多问题和 困难的中国老年人养老问题。现行的政策和保障措施不能满足老年人养老的需要，各 地养老资源普遍存在着巨大的缺口，尤其是公共养老金的缺口越来越大，亟需多渠道 筹措资金，以弥补养老金的不足。“以房养老”正是在这一背景下产生的一种新的补 充养老方式。顾名思义，“以房养老”是指在公共资源不足以满足老年人养老需求的 情况下，老年人利用自己拥有所有权的房屋等不动产，通过出租、出售、交换等多种 方式增加养老金收入，最终实现养老目的的一种养老方式。 本文运用文献研究法、问卷调查法、访谈法，以生命周期理论、家庭财富代际传 递理论、产权分割与资产流动性理论为基础，对济南市实行“以房养老”的可行性问 题进行研究。报告共分为六个部分：第 1 章从不断加剧的养老形势出发，分析了选题 背景、研究目的及意义，梳理了国内外研究现状，并提出了研究思路和研究方法；第 2 章介绍了以房养老概念、生命周期理论、家庭财富代际传递理论、产权分割与资产 流动性理论，分析了国内外典型的“以房养老”实践，为报告写作奠定了理论基础和 经验借鉴。第 3 章从“济南市人口老龄化的情况及养老方式”等几个方面入手，对济 南市实行“以房养老”的必要性进行了系统阐述。第 4 章从几个方面入手，分析了济 南市实行“以房养老”的可行性。第 5 章针对性分析济南以房养老面临的问题和风险。 第 6 章从济南市相关的政策法规、建立金融体系、和建立相应的监管机制等几方面入 手提出了济南市推行以房养老的若干对策建议。 关键词：济南市；住房反向抵押贷款；可行性；以房养老Abstract 5 Abstract At present, China is gradually stepping into the aging society, along with the social security system is not perfect,and the proportion of the elderly rising rapidly, pension issue has become one of the focal issues of social concern. However, with the weakness of the traditional family supporting functions , the reform of the old-age security system, the speeding of the urbanization the advance of empty-nest families and the diversified needs of older age groups, which have made the elderly pension problems face many problems and difficulties. Because of the huge gap in pension resources, it requires opening up the pension funds by multi-channels to make up for the lack of pensions,which have given birth to “Housing endowment” --a new way of supplementary pension to a certain extent. This paper uses the method of literature research, questionnaire, interview, and based on the life-cycle theory , the family wealth transfer by generation theory, separation of property rights theory and liquidity of assets theory .Then research on the feasibility of house-for-pension in Jinan. The paper is divided into six parts,part1 starts from the rising situation of endowment, analyzes the background, purpose and significance, then cards the current research in China and abroad and puts forward the ideas and methods for the research. Part2 mainly introduces the concept of house-for-pension and the theories above, then analyzes the typical practice of house-for-pension in China and abroad, which have provided theoretical foundation and reference for this paper.Part3 mainly discusses the situation of aging population and the ways for passion in Jinan, then elaborates systematically the necessity of house-for-pension in this city.Part4 starts from several aspects, analyzes the feasibility of house-for-pension in Jinan.Part5 analyzes the possible problems and risks of house-for-pension in Jinan.Part6 proceeds from the relevant policies and regulations, the establishment of the financial system and the appropriate regulatory mechanism in Jinan and then put forwards several suggestions towards to house-for-pension in this city. Key words: Housing endowment, Jinan , Housing reverse mortgage loan, Feasibility6 目 录 第 1 章 绪论···························································································································· 1 1.1 研究的背景及意义··································································································· 1 1.2 文献综述····················································································································· 2 1.2.1 关于国外文献综述······························································································· 2 1.2.2 关于国内研究综述······························································································· 3 1.2.3 总体评价··············································································································· 5 1.3 技术路线与研究方法······························································································· 5 1.3.1.技术路线··············································································································· 5 1.3.2 研究方法·············································································································· 5 1.4 报告研究思路和结构安排······················································································ 5 1.5.1 本文研究思路和过程··························································································· 5 1.5.2 本文的结构安排··································································································· 5 1.5 报告创新点················································································································· 6 第 2 章 以房养老的概念及理论基础·················································································· 7 2.1 以房养老的内涵······································································································· 7 2.2 以房养老的理论基础······························································································ 7 2.2.1 生命周期理论······································································································ 7 2.2.2 家庭代际财富传递理论······················································································· 8 2.2.3 产权分割与资产流动性理论··············································································· 9 2.3 目前国外以房养老典型模式及特点·································································· 10 2.3.1 对国外发展住房反向抵押贷款规律的总结······················································ 12 2.4 国内以房养老的试水实例···················································································· 14 2.4.1 国内以房养老的对比分析·················································································· 16 2.4.2 港台以房养老模式现状······················································································ 17 小结····································································································································· 19 第 3 章 济南市实行以房养老的必要性分析··································································· 20 3.1 人口结构老龄化加剧，家庭结构发生深刻变化··········································· 20 3.1.1 济南市人口结构现状························································································· 20 3.1.2 济南市家庭结构变化现状················································································· 21 3.2 养老储备金已在退休家庭出现缺口································································· 22 3.3 以房养老是传统养老模式的必要补充····························································· 247 3.3.1 济南市当前施行的养老模式及弊端································································· 24 3.4 以房养老的客观条件分析··················································································· 26 3.4.1 “有房无钱”城市老年群体增多····································································· 26 3.4.2 城镇化进程变焦养老压力················································································· 27 3.5 济南市现有养老保障体系难以满足养老需要················································ 28 小结····································································································································· 33 第 4 章 济南市实行以房养老的可行性分析··································································· 34 4.1 房屋产权可交易性与住房私有率提高是以房养老的物质基础················· 34 4.1.1 房屋产权的可交易性························································································· 34 4.1.2 住房自有率的提高····························································································· 34 4.2 商业银行与保险公司现有基础业务是以房养老运行的技术支持············ 36 4.2.1 商业银行现有基础业务····················································································· 36 4.2.2 保险功能及特点是以房养老的重要环节·························································· 36 4.3 济南市实行以房养老的软环境层面分析························································· 37 4.3.1 认知程度············································································································ 37 4.3.2 接受程度············································································································ 38 小结····································································································································· 41 第 5 章 济南市实行以房养老面临的风险······································································· 42 5.1 政策法规风险········································································································· 42 5.2 支付风险·················································································································· 42 5.3 房地产价值风险····································································································· 43 5.3.1 房地产的功能性价值波动················································································· 43 5.3.2 房地产市场波动······························································································· .43 5.4 长寿风险·················································································································· 44 5.5 道德风险··················································································································· 45 小结····································································································································· 46 第 6 章 济南市推行以房养老构建模式及保障措施····················································· 47 6.1 “以房养老”在济南运行的基础模式····························································· 47 6.1.1 选择依据············································································································ 47 6.1.2 程序运作············································································································ 49 6.2 实施“以房养老”的保障措施·········································································· 50 6.2.1 加强舆论宣传力度····························································································· 50 6.2.2 政策法律的支持································································································ 51 6.2.3 逐步完善住房金融体系····················································································· 518 6.2.4 健全保障机制···································································································· 52 6.2.5 建立相应的监管制度························································································ 52 6.2.6 逐渐改变传统观念···························································································· 53 小结····························································································································· 54 结 论········································································································································· 55