中国的风力发电经过6年多的建设与发展,2011年装机总量实现世界第一。国内风资源 很好的二、三类风场已经基本开发完毕,风资源较差的四类风区开发成为必然。S前市场上 的风电机组都是适用于二、三类风场的,直接将此类风机安装在四类风区,发电量很低,项 目经济可行性评估无法通过。因此市场迫切需要按照低风速地区特点来设计高发电量风力发 电机组。若地风能有限公司(简称:若地公司)在风力发电领域走过了7个年头。作为湖北 省唯一的风力发电机组制造商,若地公司在国内的风电装机取得了可喜的成绩,但是在本省 却未能实现装机。主要原因是湖北省风能资源属于四类风区,公司原有机组开发此类风场不 具有经济性。因此针对湖北风资源特点开发低风速风力发电机组,是该公司打开湖北市场的 唯一办法。 本文试图通过若地公司市场结构的分析、高风速和低风速风机的经济性模型建立与财务 评价比较、风电项目环境影响评估、幵发商和政府及电网的动态博弈,来评估若地公司使用 低风速风力发电机组开发湖北低风速风电项目的可行性。 本文研究的主要内容包括: 第一章绪论。简要介绍了本研究的目的和意义,概括了国内外的研究现状,明确了研究 思路和内容。 第二章若地公司风电市场环境分析。介绍全国的风电发展情况,然后分析湖北省的风力 资源分布特点及风电开发的现状及电力结构,全面分析了若地公司湖北低风速风电项目的市 场环境。 第三章若地公司竞争结构分析。运用波特五力模型,从五种竞争力量的角度分析若地公 司湖北低风速风电项目的市场竞争结构。 第四章若地公司风电项目经济评估。以湖北省齐岳山风场为例,尝试建立风电的成本模 型,采用高风速风机和低风速风机进行投资经济性分析,评估若地公司湖北低风速风电项目 的经济性。 第五章若地公司风电项目环境评估。以湖北省齐岳山风场为例,评估了风电项目对环境 的影响,并对其节能减排与效益进行了分析。 第六章若地公司风电发展博弈分析。分析了地方政府、开发商和电网之间的动态博弈, 得出了若地公司发展湖北风电需具备的条件。 第七章对若地公司幵发湖北风电项目的可行性进行总结并指出不足之处。 报告的创新之处: 本文通过对若地公司发展湖北风电项目所处的市场环境、竞争结构、投资效益、环境评 估和政府博弈的分析,论证了若地公司发展湖北低风速风电项目的可行性。 关键词:若地公司,低风速风电项目,经济分析,环境评价,傅弈分析 Research on Feasibility of Low-speed Wind Power Project for Rordic Company Master Candidate : Dong Miaomiao Supervisor: Prof. Yu Jing Senior Engineer Deng Xianwen ABSTRACT China's wind power after more than six years of construction and development, its total installed capacity of 2011 achieves the world No 1. Domestic IEC II and III wind zone with good wind resource has been the basic completion of the development, the development of low wind speed zone (IEC IV or S) becomes a necessity.. The wind turbines in the current market are all designed for IEC II and III wind zone. If these turbines are installed in low wind speed zone, the generating capacity is very low and the project is not economical. Therefore the market needs a special designed wind turbine for low wind speed. Rordic wind limited company (i.e. Rordic) was born for seven years in the wind market. As the only wind turbine manufacturer in Hubei Province, Rordic has achieved many wind projects all over the country except in Hubei. The main reason is the poor wind resource. Rordic's former wind turbine is unprofitable in this area. So developing a new wind turbine fitting Hubei's wind resource is the only way to open Hubei's wind market. This thesis attempts to evaluate the feasibility of the low wind power projects for Rordic company in Hubei low wind speed zone, by analyzing the structure of the Hubei electrical market, building a economical model using normal and low wind speed turbine, assessing environmental impact and performing a game analysis between the developer and the government. The main contents of this thesis include: Chapter I briefly describes the purpose of this study and summarizes the research status domestic and international, and clarify the way to study. Chapter II systematically analyses the Rordic company's wind power market environment. It introduces China's wind power development, the characteristics and current status of wind resources in Hubei, and electric power structure. In Chapter III the theory of Michael Porter is used to analyze the competitive structure for Rordic in Hubei. Chapter IV builds a economical calculation model using normal and low wind speed turbine, which is used to evaluate the economic feasibility of Qiyueshan wind farm. The results provide a basis for Rordic Company o士 developing Hubei low wind speed projects. assessed the impact of wind power projects on the environment and energy conservation and efficiency are analyzed. Chapter V takes Qiyueshan wind farm as an example to assess the environmental impact of the Rordic Company wind power project. Also its energy reduction and efficiency is discussed. Chapter VI performs a game analysis between the local government, the grid company and the developer. Reveal what is needed for Rordic to develop Hubei wind project. Chapter VII gives a result and show the shortage of this thesis. The innovation of the thesis: This thesis demonstrates the feasibility of Rordic to develop Hubei low wind speed projects by analyzing the market status, competition structure, economical benefits and game analysis among the local government, the grid company and the developer. Key Words: RORDIC company, Low-speed wind power project, Economic analysis, Environmental assessment,Game analysis 第一章绪论 §1.1课题目的及意义 §1.2国内外发展现状 1.2.1国外发展现状 1.2.2国内发展现状 §1.3报告的思路与基本框架 1.3.1研究思路 1.3.2基本框架 第二章若地公司风电市场环境分析........ §2.1全国风电发展情况 2.1.1风资源分布特征 2.1.2风电的区域特点 2.1.3开发商状况 2.1.4七大风电基地 2.1.5电网接入与风电外送 2.1.6低风速风电发展 P.2湖北风资源分析 2.2.1气象站风能资源情况........ 2.2.2特殊地形下风能资源........ 2.2.3风资源分区情况 2.2.4可幵发区域情况 §2.3湖北电力结构分析 2.3.1湖北电力结构特点 2.3.2湖北电力结构存在的问题 §2.4分散式风电开发 第三章若地公司竞争结构分析 §3.1波特的五力模型 §3.2部件供货商的议价能力 §3.3风电开发商的议价能力 §3.4新进入者的威胁 §3.5替代品的威胁 §3.6同行业的竞争者 §3.7总结 第四章若地公司风电项目经济评估......... §4.1风电项目经济性模型 §4.2项目简介 23 §4.3风能资源 23 4.3.1风电场所在地区气象站资料分析 23 4.3.2空气密度 24 4.3.3风切变指数和湍流强度 24 4.3.4最大风速 25 4.3.5风电场风资源初步评价结论 25 §4.4机型选择与发电量估算 25 4.4.1机型选择 25 4.4.2风力发电机组的布置 26 4.4.3风电场年上网电量估算 26 §4.5投资估算 28 4.5.1工程概况 28 4.5.2基础价格 28 4.5.3投资估算总表 29 §4.6财务评价比较 32 4.6.1财务评价主要计算参数 32 4.6.2财务评价对比结论 32 第五章若地公司风电项目环境评估 46 §5.1生态影响 46 §5.2噪音影响 47 §5.3大气影响 48 §5.4水体影响 48 §5.5罔体废弃物影响 49 §5.6节能减排与效益分析 49 §5.7环境评估结论 49 第六章若地公司风电发展博弈分析 50 §6.1三方的博弈格局 50 §6.2风电在湖北发展的博弈分析 51 §6.3博弈分析结论 53 第七章结论与展望 54 §7.1研究结论 54 §7.2本文研究的不足 54 致 M 55